2024–25 NBA Scouting Report: Southwest Division

An opposing team’s scout breaks down the division heading into the season.

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic will have big-addition Klay Thompson this season. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Dallas Mavericks

Klay Thompson is a huge addition. You got a guy that can play off the ball. You got Luka Doncic. They need somebody that can play without the basketball because he’s got the ball in his hands the whole time. Thompson doesn’t need the ball to score and to be successful. Doncic wants the ball the whole time. You got Kyrie Irving that has the ball. So, you finally get a guy in there that can score without having the ball and you can’t help off of him. 

I still think Thompson is a good offensive player. You could tell that mentally last year, he had checked out. I had heard the year before that he wasn’t feeling the love with the owner. That it wasn’t even about the money. He just wanted the owner to give him the extension, and he never did the year before, and then he just held it in the whole time. He was just miserable. 

With Doncic, they’re going to really struggle on defense. That’s going to be an area that they’re going to really struggle, but they could put up a lot of points with the three of them if it happens the right way.

With Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford at the center spot, you’re covered there. They will clean up a lot of stuff defensively, but they’re going to be overmatched on the perimeter on defense. Thompson wasn’t too bad a few years back when he was in his prime, but now he just doesn’t move laterally at all anymore. Irving and Doncic aren’t looking to guard, so it depends on who is their fifth guy.

I love Naji Marshall, he is a hard nose, does-everything kind of guy, shoots the ball really well. He does all the effort plays on defense. He can guard one through four. He’s a utility guy on both ends. He just fits in seamlessly with his effort. 

Irving looked happy last year. You saw less of the drama. Skill wise, he’s super talented, but I think he got to a place where he was willing to pick his spots of when he can score. He looked much more team focused. 

Lively was out for a while and came back, and he never missed a beat. For a 20-year-old kid to miss games, and then come back and not lose a beat, it’s pretty impressive. His athleticism, footwork, touch around the basket, shot-blocking ability. He really moves well for his size for a young kid, but he caught and finished really well. Guys just have a knack under the basket around there and can just have a touch and feel and he’s got it.

He’s going to have a really big year and it’s going to be huge for them to have somebody protecting the rim like that. He has to watch out for foul trouble. There’s going to be so much dribble penetration coming at him. If he could protect that paint for them and give them something on defense, it’s just going to make them that much better.

[ Buy now: Victor Wembanyama on Sports Illustrated’s November 2024 cover, the NBA and college basketball preview issue ]

Houston Rockets

The Rockets were about what I thought they would be last season. They outplayed what I thought they’d be at various points in the year early. When Alperen Sengun went down, they went on that run for a while where they were cooking. But at the end of the day, record-wise, they pretty much finished about what I thought they’d be: a competitive team, but play-in-ish type team.

Ime Udoka got through to them. He’s like the tough guy, talking s--- to players. He brought a level of consistency and expectation, accountability on the defensive end. That certainly helped.

Fred VanVleet really helped them. You can quibble over if he is worth the money or not, but he’s really smart, he makes good decisions, he gets other guys on the same page, all that type of stuff. The issue with guys like him is typically how many games are they going to play? He played a ton of games. 

VanVleet makes good decisions and is a strong leader for the Rockets. / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

How do they improve and get better? Is Jalen Green going to take another step? Jabari Smith Jr. has a lot of talent, but he’s not really a priority there, you know what I’m saying? I assume Cam Whitmore is going to be better. 

I wonder how much they are going to play Reed Sheppard. If you have to play him, you’re probably going to get your teeth kicked in a little bit in his minutes. 

I’m not in love with Sengun the way some others are. The fact that when he was out, Green killed it and they went on that long streak tells you something. He’s going to score some points that look good, but at the end of the day, is he making them a better team? He’s a tough cover, but you’re not necessarily winning, especially if your center sucks defensively, you better be really good. 

Amen Thompson is an awful shooter. He’s a solid defender who really embraced Udoka’s tough guy coaching. He’s comfortable, from that aspect, but he’s got to get a lot better shooting because he doesn’t have nearly the amount of ballhandling skill to be impactful.

Smith seems like one of those guys, if you want him to be more than a role player, you are going to have to make a point to feature him more, or you’re going to have to move on, you’re going to have to do it somewhere else.

New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans is so incomplete with the lack of center. What they’re going to have to do is put Herb Jones on centers and look to switch a bunch, and try to hide Zion Williamson elsewhere, or they’re going to have to get a big guy somewhere. I know they got Daniel Theis, but they got nothing else. It should open things up for Williamson offensively, but they are going to do a fair amount of work to hide Williamson, switch with those other guys, to try to negate what you got going on.

I think Williamson and Brandon Ingram work, to a certain extent, but the issue is they told Ingram, “We’re going to get you out of here,” and then they didn’t, and so he’s not going to get paid by them, not anywhere near what he wants. They have to try to trade him or CJ McCollum, but I don’t see either of those things happening.

I’m not in love with Dejounte Murray either. He’s more of a point guard defender, and an upgrade, in some ways, over McCollum, but he’s not the answer to all their problems. Defensively, he’s pretty good, but not probably quite as good as he was advertised coming out of San Antonio. You saw some of that in Atlanta. He’s a nice defender, average to plus, but he’s not out of this world. His shooting in the midrange is very good, but that’s part of a little bit of what’s problematic is McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, all can make and like to take some [bad] shots. You still have some of that overlap that you had, except McCollum can shoot a few more threes. Murray’s size can help. If they’re trying to play a bunch of switching defense, his size can help with that relative to what McCollum or Jose Alvarado was.

Jones is a high-level defender. They have a few of those guys. Ingram can be, mostly because of size, and height and length. Trey Murphy III competes defensively. Murray’s a plus defender, typically. Probably not quite as good as the steals and that type of stuff have been in the past, but he’s got length, he can move and he competes. They have some pieces there, but they need to figure out what they are going to do up front.

Williamson has not lived up to what everyone hoped he would be. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Williamson definitely hasn’t lived up to what everybody has hoped, mostly due to injury, and then not playing games when maybe he could have, but also being super heavy. All those things have been tough for him, certainly, but when he plays, he’s a load offensively. He looks like he slimmed down, so maybe that’ll help him. He is a capable defender, but he needs to be much better. He’s shown flashes and signs of being able to compete defensively, but he has not done it with consistency.

They’re going to have to play him a lot at the five. It’s going to be him at the five, and these other guys kind of figuring out how we’re going to switch, and cover defensively, and hide him, but that’s what it’s going to be.

Memphis Grizzlies

There’s a lot of pressure in Memphis. I think Taylor Jenkins has done a good job. He’s a good coach. But it sounds like he’s in a little bit of hot water here, in trouble, because they’ve made him fire all his assistants. That’s usually not a good sign. 

Ja Morant’s still really dynamic, the explosiveness, the speed, he’s a real good athlete in the open court and in tight quarters. He can punish you on the break because of his speed and his ability to get out and run with the ball. When you get into tighter spaces, because he is so athletic and he’s slick with the basketball, he’s hard to contain. Even though he is not necessarily a great shooter, he is still able to get into paint. He is so quick and explosive, and he’s got great dexterity. He works left exceedingly well, and he can change speed and directions and really put you on your heels.

Morant is a dynamic, explosive athlete even if he is not the greatest shooter. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

They can be a tough regular-season team, potentially, but they’re still going to lack shooting. They’re still going to lack some defensive versatility. They’re interesting to me. They have a swagger, but they have not really earned it. They remind me a little bit of how Boston was before they won the title, where it was like you act like you’ve won three championships, but you haven’t won one.

I like Marcus Smart, but he’s overrated in a number of areas. He’s never been a really good shooter, and he makes dumb decisions a lot of times. He’s tough, and he’s competitive. Defensively, he can do a really good job at times, but he takes some liberties, too. You’re going to have whatever your schemes are, and he’s going to do what he wants to do. When he’s tired, he takes shortcuts. When he is not tired, he’s really good. He will be lost on the weak side when he is tired or he’ll hit a pick and call switch or kind of make up some different things as he wants to. A lot of times it’s for his benefit and not necessarily the team’s. 

The lack of shooting is what is really going to hurt them. They’ll still try to kill you on the offensive boards. They’ll still try to do crazy good in transition. Desmond Bane’s still a tough player, Morant’s still a tough player, but they got some issues. They have a lot of athletic wing defenders. Who’s going to put the ball in the hole? Bane can shoot it, but who else? GG Jackson was fine, he got attempts up, but it’ll be interesting to see if he’ll play in games that actually matter. That is the question for any of those guys that were playing significant minutes down the stretch. None of their games mattered. When it does matter, how do you play?

When you look at their team, they all have overlap and there’s a lack of ability to shoot the basketball that you’re better off not having one of these guys and getting somebody else in here who can actually make a shot. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. has to play both the four and the five for them. I don’t think he’s a great shooter, necessarily, but they’re going to need him to do both because they have a number of wing perimeter players who aren’t great shooters either. He’s got the versatility defensively to do both, but offensively, he’s going to have to be efficient at both positions. 

San Antonio Spurs

Last year we saw the worst Victor Wembanyama is ever going to be, and he looked like a top-25 player. He got better as the year went on. Chris Paul in Year 1 will probably be good for him in some ways, but I was impressed with him, and defensively, he’s so big and long and athletic. If he’s healthy, Wemby is going to win Defensive Player of the Year this season. It’s a lock. 

He has not shown to be the shooter that people have acted like he is. His form and his technique doesn’t look broken. Free throw-wise, he was pretty solid there, so that’s a little bit of a plus, but  for him to not shoot 50% from the floor, and he wasn’t a real very good three-point shooter, some of it’s strength. Basically, you’re like, Hey, when he posts up, you got to emphasize being super physical with him. You got to emphasize getting up underneath him. We talked about you don’t front him in the post, versus mismatches, as much as you try to push him out, because you front him, and they throw it up, nobody’s getting to it.

Wembanyama could be Defensive Player of the Year this season if he stays healthy. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Got to block him out, and really move him back, and get into his legs because he’s so big and long. If he’s screening and rolling, when he is at the five, which they didn’t do a ton of with him, you’re talking about you need help in your pick-and-roll defense, like somebody else has got to be in there to tag the roll. His size and his length presents such a problem, but where he’s unique is how he can put the ball on the floor. He’s not unreal at it, but just with the combination of size and length, the fact that he can dribble, how he can be on the perimeter, be inside, it’s pretty impressive.

I was high on Devin Vassell going into last season, but he didn’t play as well as I thought he would. He’s got a great frame, he can be a good defender. He did some of that, but he never really did it at a level where you’re like, I can see where you can really feature him or play through him or use him as a guy to generate offense.

Paul is near the end but anyone is better than Jeremy Sochan at point guard. He’ll be bad defensively, but everyone looks better when they have a monster like Wembanyama behind them. Last year, just physically, he looked old, with good reason. He’s done a remarkable job playing this long. He definitely took a step back. He can still run his pick-and-rolls, he still can make some shots and he’s still a smart player. But there’s only so much left here.

I thought Keldon Johnson was going to break out after the [2021] Olympics. He can get close to 50% from the floor, and he might be able to get his three-point shooting to a high thirties and probably be a good offensive rebounder, tough physical kind of defender. He just wasn’t a big-time rebounder. He wasn’t like a strong physical finisher. He wasn’t high-volume free throws. He seemed to be just looking for his shots. Defensively, he did not have the zest to be a two-way player. At this point, he better be, I don’t see him being like a 25-a-game-per-night guy

Harrison Barnes is going to help them. He can make some shots, he’s going to compete and give effort. If you take some of Sochan’s minutes where he can’t shoot, and give them to that guy, who will at least compete, is probably a net win.

If Sochan can show a little bit more consistency shooting the ball, that would obviously help. He has some dribble pass skill to him, but it’s not at an unreal level. I’m not sure how good he fits with what you want Wembanyama to be. I would rather have Wembanyama not be a fake point guard, but have the ball with him more to do stuff, and if he fails, he fails, but that’s going to be the future of the team. It’s not to let Sochan back down, or Keldon Johnson isolate. That’s not what this team needs to be. 

How They’ll Finish

SI predicts how each division will play out in the 2024–25 season.

Dallas Mavericks

Klay Thompson, a career 41.3% three-point shooter, will be a welcome addition for the defending conference champs, who are also looking for a breakout second season from Dereck Lively II.

Memphis Grizzlies

Rookie Zach Edey will take pressure off Jaren Jackson Jr. in the frontcourt, while Ja Morant and costars Desmond Bane and Brandon Clarke will look to bounce back from an injury-riddled 2023–24.

New Orleans Pelicans

Dejounte Murray, acquired from Atlanta, beefs up an already sturdy defense while Brandon Ingram, entering a contract year, must convince the New Orleans brass that he fits alongside Zion Williamson. 

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 boards and 5.0 assists last year, but when he was hurt the Rockets went on a run—with Jalen Green taking the lead. Can the two young talents successfully coexist?

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs added a point guard  (Chris Paul) and a veteran scorer (Harrison Barnes). That sets the stage for a big sophomore season for Victor Wembanyama—and perhaps a surprising one in San Antonio.

—Chris Mannix