Predicting 76ers’ Rotation Halfway Through 2023 NBA Preseason

Nick Nurse doesn't have the 76ers' rotation down just yet.

The Philadelphia 76ers are two games into their four-game preseason slate. Both of their matchups, one home and one away, were against the team’s division rival, the Boston Celtics.

As expected, the Sixers have yet to trot out their full roster. Considering they are a team full of seasoned veterans, the 76ers are easing some of their key guys back into the process.

Getting a full look at the potential primary rotation won’t happen on Monday night when the Sixers pay a visit to the Brooklyn Nets. While there’s a chance the entire roster could suit up for Friday’s battle with the Atlanta Hawks, there isn’t a guarantee the team will see everybody play.

Ahead of last Wednesday’s matchup against the Boston Celtics, Nick Nurse was presented with a question regarding the state of the team’s rotation. Considering the Sixers opened up training camp a little over a week prior, his answer went exactly as expected.

“I don’t have an exact number,” Nurse told reporters when asked how many rotation spots are up for grabs at the moment.

“I would say you got a pretty good idea of who our five or six possible starters are,” Nurse added. “I think there’s a plethora of wing guys if they’re healthy. There’s a bunch of guys who’s gonna fit there.”

Sixers guards James Harden and Tyrese Maxey.  / USA Today

Predicting the Starting Five

The first-year Sixers head coach kicks around the idea of the Sixers having potentially six starting prospects. Assuming James Harden is in mind for the time being, it’s easy to figure out who the four guaranteed starters are:

• James Harden

• Joel Embiid

• Tyrese Maxey

• Tobias Harris

The fifth spot will likely come down to the longtime veteran PJ Tucker and the young veteran guard De’Anthony Melton. 

Last season, Tucker was the most polarizing player on the Sixers for most of the regular season. Fans believed he shouldn’t have touched the floor, while coaches and players from inside and outside of the Sixers’ organization made it clear that his value goes beyond the box score.

Melton is good enough to be a complementary piece in a starting lineup, and he found slightly more offensive success in the 58 games he started compared to the 19 games he came off the bench last season. However, Melton was picking up the slack in the event of absences due to injuries. Defensively, he would be productive in any unit, but there’s only one ball for the offensive end. 

With Shake Milton out of the picture and Tyrese Maxey unlikely to revert to a bench role anytime soon, the Sixers could offer Melton more responsibility in a role as a backup. While I believe Tucker will resume his role in the starting five over Melton — you can guarantee both guys are in the rotation.

Who’s Coming Off the Bench?

First, let’s take a look at who Nurse name-dropped as he assessed the team’s rotation that night.

“I think the Pat Bev, Jaden Springer, kind of tough guard off the bench is a battle,” Nurse explained. "I think that Furk, House, Oubre, Green, there’s four. There are six more guys in the battle. I would say those top six guys are there, as long as they’re healthy. Paul Reed’s probably there. Positionally, Mo Bamba’s in a battle in that little Paul Reed, PJ Tucker, Tobias Harris four-five spot.” 

With Nurse unsure about the number of players who will be in the rotation, we’ll kick around the idea of having an additional four players to make it a ten-man rotation for the time being. Of course, with injuries, important stretches, and potential regressions, the rotation would be subject to change.

New Sixers wing Kelly Oubre during media day / USA Today

Nearly a Lock

• Kelly Oubre

The Sixers didn’t break the bank on Oubre, considering they got him for a veteran’s minimum, but that factor was shocking enough. Sure, Oubre played on a bad team in the Charlotte Hornets and wasn’t super efficient at times, but it’s hard to imagine a guy could go from averaging 20 points one season to being out of a rotation the next.

With two samples in the bag, it would be difficult to justify having Oubre out of the Sixers’ rotation when the regular season begins. Spending an average of 17 minutes on the court through those first two games, Oubre averaged 12 points while knocking down 44 percent of his threes and displayed tough defense. The veteran wing would have to be abysmal in the next week of practices and games in order to ride the bench when the season begins.

• Paul Reed

So far, Paul Reed’s increased role in Nick Nurse’s system hasn’t been inspiring. Admittedly, the young post player is going through an adjustment period, learning how to balance going from having a super short leash to having much more offensive freedom than ever.

Two factors will help Reed as he works out some kinks in his game before the regular season. One: he just signed a notable contract, which will ensure he collects over $20 million throughout the next three seasons. The team made an investment, and they’ll have to see it through. 

Two: Nick Nurse clearly sees something in Reed that Doc Rivers struggled to find. And since the depth behind Reed has struggled as well, it’s hard to imagine Reed doesn’t have the backup center position locked up right now.

Former Sixers' first-round pick Jaden Springer guards Celtics' Jayson Tatum / USA Today

Could Win a Spot

• Patrick Beverley

• Danny Green

• Jaden Springer

Will the experience factor put Jaden Springer in a difficult position heading into the new season? Unfortunately for the former Tennessee guard, I believe that could be the case to start the year. Patrick Beverley’s leadership, toughness, and versatility should mesh well with Nurse’s system. 

Then you have Danny Green, who’s been in the league since 2009 and has three NBA Championships attached to his resume. The thing with Green is that he’s battling his way back, coming off an ACL tear. Last season, he appeared in just 11 regular season games with two different organizations. The common question surrounding Green this season is, “How much does he have left in the tank?” 

Last Sunday, the answer was, “Maybe not much,” after he went 1-6 from the field, scoring three points in 15 minutes. But then Green pulls you right back in as he turns around three nights later and drills three of his six shots from the field for eight points while dishing out three assists and snatching three steals on the defensive end.

The Green-Beverley-Springer battle is shaping up to be the most intriguing preseason battle on the Sixers this offseason, and the next two games will be critical for a young Springer, who has little time to prove he’s ready to take the next step. The 2021 first-rounder will likely play more than ever in year three, but finding consistent minutes could prove to be an uphill war once again.