Bucks Could Face Major Salary Cap Problems Ahead of Free Agency

Milwaukee could be in line for a difficult summer.

Dec 11, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA: Milwaukee Bucks mascot Bango waves flag with the Milwaukee Bucks logo prior to the game against the Chicago Bulls at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The 2024-25 Milwaukee Bucks' season is looking more and more cooked by the day.

With nine-time All-Star point guard Damian Lillard out indefinitely due to a blood clot issue, the club is struggling to find offensive solutions at guard. Milwaukee head coach Doc Rivers has toggled between Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. as his Lillard replacements, to mediocre results.

Rollins has been a solid 3-point shooter this season, connecting on 35.6 percent on just 1.9 triple tries a night, but he's not nearly a scorer at Lillard's level. Porter, meanwhile, can't shoot from deep, but is a tougher downhill player for opposing defenses to stop.

Even if Lillard does get healthy in time for the playoffs, there's no guarantee that Milwaukee can make any kind of extended run. At 40-33, the Bucks currently occupy the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. If the playoffs ended today, they'd face off against a starry 46-27 New York Knicks club in the first round.

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The team doesn't seem to have the floor spacing necessary to truly contend in the East this year, especially with the sharpshooting Cleveland Cavaliers and/or Boston Celtics looming in later playoff rounds.

What's even worse for Milwaukee is that the franchise could find itself pretty financially constricted this summer.

During a new appraisal of the NBA free agency landscape, ESPN's Tim Bontemps got real about Milwaukee's dangerous cap situation. Sixth man Bobby Portis, distressed trade asset Pat Connaughton, and Porter all have pricey player options.

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3-and-D starting center Brook Lopez, who turns 37 in a matter of days, is currently in the final season of a two-year, $48 million deal he inked with the Bucks in 2023. Given that the Bucks can ill afford to bring in a new high level center without making major moves, the team will likely need to keep him around — even though doing so will murder their cap.

During the Bucks' last game, for instance, Lopez stepped up on both sides of the ball in a valiant 127-117 defeat to a healthier Denver Nuggets club.

Tonight's player of the game. pic.twitter.com/L7rpT65uTy

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 27, 2025

"For the Bucks, if Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Kevin Porter Jr. all opt into their player options for next season, Milwaukee will have over $155 million committed to six players -- putting the Bucks just $32 million below the luxury tax with the rest of the roster to fill out," Bontemps writes. "That doesn't leave a lot of room to retain Lopez if the team hopes to stay under the tax."

One thing that could work in Milwaukee's favor, however, is that not a lot of teams need starting-level centers across the league. The Golden State Warriors are the big semi-contending exception, of course, but they would need to do some fancy cap maneuvering to poach Lopez from the Bucks or Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers, also a free agent this summer.

"There are only a couple of teams with significant cap space this summer, and none of them is going to be targeting a big-money, veteran center," Bontemps writes. "So for both Lopez and Turner, their only real leverage in negotiations could be to take the full midlevel with another team. But that would be a pay cut for both players. As a result, how hard of a bargain will Indiana and Milwaukee drive for their big men?"

This year, the 7-foot-1 Stanford product is averaging 13.0 points on .504/.372/.846 shooting splits in 71 healthy games for the Bucks, plus 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.7 assists, and 0.7 steals.

Lopez has been something of an iron man for Milwaukee. He's not even on the club's late-season injury report ahead of a critical clash against New York on Friday night — the same cannot be said for Lillard, two-time MVP power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Portis.

Injury Report - March 28 vs. New York

Out:
Damian Lillard (Right Calf Deep Vein Thrombosis)
Bobby Portis Jr. (League Suspension)
Jericho Sims (Right Thumb UCL Sprain)

Questionable:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Left Foot Sprain)

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 27, 2025

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