Bucks Lineups with Giannis, Dame Are Hard to Beat — When They Play

Critics of the trade to get Damian Lillard were seemingly vindicated when the Milwaukee Bucks exited the playoffs in Round 1 and Jrue Holiday and the Boston Celtics won the NBA title. But a longtime Bucks observer says the data confirms the potential of a Giannis-Dame lineup — if they can stay healthy.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) runs back up the court during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

MILWAUKEE — With Giannis Antetokounmpo on the Milwaukee Bucks roster, every season is championship or bust.

When Giannis is healthy, the Bucks are NBA title contenders. When he is unavailable, seasons end prematurely.

After a first-round playoff elimination in 2023 — Giannis missed three of the five games — Bucks general manager Jon Horst made what would become a much scrutinized decision: He traded NBA Finals hero and Olympic gold medalist Jrue Holiday to get Damian Lillard, a prolific scorer but a defensive liability.

Critics of the trade had their vindication in 2024. The Bucks again exited the postseason in the first round (Giannis and Dame missed all or part of the series) and the Boston Celtics, with Holiday at the helm, won the title. Case closed. Horst's big gamble failed.

Frank Madden, founding editor of BrewHoop and a host of the podcast Locked on Bucks, took a hard look at the criticism and says not so fast.

There is reason for hope. Out of 22 NBA lineups that played together for 600 or more possessions in 2023-24, two Bucks starting fives led the league in point differential, Madden reported.

Out of 22 lineups that played >600 possessions last year, the Bucks had the #1 *and* #2 lineups by point differential — their normal starting 5 was +15.5 and when Crowder started they were +13.3. More surprisingly: those were also the two best defenses (106.6 and 107.9)! https://t.co/nRyfXZdH0T pic.twitter.com/0FpEMWikCH

— Frank Madden (@fmaddenNBA) September 13, 2024

A Bucks lineup featuring Giannis, Lillard, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, and Malik Beasley led the rankings with a plus-15.5 point differential. A second lineup with Jae Crowder instead of Middleton had a point differential of plus-13.

Trailing the Bucks were Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, and Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Celtics.

What's more, Madden reported, those Bucks lineups ranked 1-2 on defense.

However anyone interprets the data, for Milwaukee to overtake Boston in the Eastern Conference, Antetokounmpo and Lillard must lead the way.

“It’s about health. It’s about staying healthy. Dame staying healthy. Giannis has been hurt in the last two playoffs. That baffles me how people don’t even mention that he’s been pretty much a no-show in the playoffs the last couple of years. They just act like he’s been completely healthy."

- Marques Johnson, Hear District podcast

Beasley and Crowder are no longer with the team. New signings Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright will be expected to contribute when called and assume greater responsibilities if and when the stars are unavailable.

The fact is, winning requires great players and good fortune. Milwaukee has the players, but a little luck could be required for the Bucks to go a long way.

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