What Are Realistic Expectations For The Cavaliers Next Season?

Can we expect the Cavaliers to go a little deeper into the playoffs next season?

Dec 2, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates with guard Darius Garland (10) during the second half against the Orlando Magic at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off of a 2023-24 campaign in which they won 48 games and advanced to the second round of the playoffs, where they lost to the Boston Celtics.

It marked the first playoff series win for the Cavaliers since 2018, so it was definitely a step in the right direction for a franchise that is still trying to recover from the loss of LeBron James (for a second time).

Needless to say, Cleveland is in much better shape now than it was after James' initial departure.

The Cavs have rattled off three straight winning seasons, and while the Cavaliers took a step back record-wise this past year (they won 51 games in 2022-23), they have been making progress with each passing campaign.

But can we expect Cleveland to continue its ascension next season? Or are the Cavs doomed to stagnate or, even worse, regress?

Well, here's the thing: the Cavs really haven't done all that much this summer. Yes, signing Donovan Mitchell to a contract extension was huge, and hiring Kenny Atkinson could pay significant dividends, but outside of drafting Jaylon Tyson, they haven't bolstered their roster at all.

The "core four" of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen remains intact, but the Cavaliers have been asleep at the wheel in free agency.

Now, in Cleveland's defense, there really isn't much the club can do. The Cavs are at the mercy of the salary cap, and while the Cavaliers did have the ability to open the full MLE, they apparently didn't see anyone worth adding for the money.

Considering that other Eastern Conference squads have made moves to improve, that is certainly a risky decision by Cleveland.

The Cavs finished fourth in the East standings this past season and defeated the Orlando Magic in a seven-game first-round playoff series. The Magic finished just one game behind the Cavaliers, so it wasn't like there was a drastic difference between the two clubs.

Orlando made a big move to buttress its wing depth this offseason, signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a multi-year deal. Will that move put the Magic above Cleveland? Not necessarily, but it certainly makes Orlando better, which is a scary thought for a Cavs squad that has essentially stood pat.

What, then, can we realistically expect from the Cavaliers in the upcoming 2024-25 NBA campaign?

Well, to be perfectly blunt, we probably shouldn't anticipate a whole lot more than another second-round exit, at best.

Of course, anything can happen. Injuries can befall other teams. Weird variations can occur. Guys can also have career years or breakout seasons (paging Garland and Mobley) that can take their respective ballclubs to the next level.

But all things being equal, it's hard to envision Cleveland making a whole lot of noise in an Eastern Conference that includes the defending-champion Celtics, a Milwaukee Bucks group led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and improving teams like the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers.

A world does exist in which the Cavaliers could finish seventh in the standings next season. Now, can Cleveland flip the script and maybe place in the top three? Perhaps, but I actually think a 6 or 7-seed could be more realistic than a 3-seed at this point.

That doesn't mean I am predicting the Cavs to finish seventh in the conference. That is probably a worst-case scenario. But it could happen, which demonstrates that the Cavaliers have a long way to go to truly establish themselves as legitimate contenders.

Cleveland is probably a 45-50-win team as currently constructed, with the pendulum swinging toward 47 or 48 wins—much like this past season.

Is a vast bump in wins possible? While anything is possible in theory, a massive jump in win total does not seem like it's in the cards for the Cavs in 2025.

The most likely outcome seems to be the Cavaliers experiencing a similar regular season to the one they just had with their ceiling being a second-round playoff exit.

As good as Mitchell is, I just can't see Cleveland reaching the Eastern Conference Finals unless there are some pretty serious extenuating circumstances elsewhere (e.g. injuries).

All of that being said, there is still a considerable amount of time remaining in the offseason, so maybe the Cavs will pull off a trade that critically alters the NBA landscape. But it's hard to imagine a universe in which that occurs.