Film Room: Roots of Celtics' Game 5 Fourth Quarter Collapse

Not efficiently closing out playoff series last year factored into the Celtics losing in the NBA Finals; their Game 5 loss to the Hawks could contribute to coming up short again.

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

When Al Horford found a trailing Malcolm Brogdon for a transition layup with 9:32 left in Game 5, it extended the Celtics' advantage to 102-89, matching their largest lead of the night.

From there, Boston made three mistakes that proved backbreaking.

Offensively, the defending Eastern Conference champions are at their best when playing up-tempo. But as possessions become more valuable, there's a tendency to slowly bring the ball up the floor, wanting to ensure that they're organized, well-spaced, and they execute to put points on the board.

The problem is, the Celtics are usually worse off for that approach than if they pushed the pace and kept the defense on their toes rather than letting the opposition get set.

It's not easy to embrace that when possessions matter most, Boston needs to attack rather than slow down, but the sample size spans years, and the data is conclusive.

This year's playoffs reinforce that. The final five minutes of games within five points is how crunch time's defined. The Celtics have found themselves in that situation three times through the first five matchups of their opening-round series against the Hawks. Their approach has them ranked 11th in pace, per NBA.com, translating to 96.19 possessions per 48 minutes, tied with, interestingly enough, Atlanta.

Seeing how the metrics on NBA.com compare to the eye test reveals Boston's 15th out of 16 playoff teams in points per game in the clutch, producing 5.7 per contest. Its 1.3 free-throw attempts match the Warriors and Timberwolves for the fewest. And its plus-minus rating of minus-two ranks 11th.

The Celtics are also in the bottom five in offensive rating in the clutch this postseason, manufacturing 100 points per 100 possessions. Their 17.6 percent turnover percentage ranks 12th, as does their 46.7 effective field goal percentage. Boston's 50.7 percent true-shooting percentage is 13th in the postseason.

As it pertains to Tuesday's 119-117 loss to the Hawks, Atlanta's defense provided minimal resistance as the hosts produced 48 points in the paint through three quarters. Even after walking the ball up, if the Celtics continued emphasizing going to the basket, it likely would've worked.

Them shooting 50 percent from the field in the final frame but only scoring 25 points (against that defense) speaks volumes.

What happened was Boston paired its slower operation with a fixation on attacking Trae Young. While a sound strategy, its failure to execute that objective made it a mission the hosts were better off aborting.

The play below starts with Derrick White opting against trying to get the ball over De'Andre Hunter to a rolling Robert Williams. Jayson Tatum, the second screener in the initial action, goes to the pinch post, but the Celtics take too long to get him the ball, and Young calls for the scram switch, with Bogdan Bogdanovic taking his place.

Impressively, when Hunter doubles Tatum, he deflects the latter's pass on his second jump. It looks like John Collins may have picked it off if Hunter hadn't batted it, but the result is one of Boston's five fourth-quarter turnovers, which led to ten points for the Hawks.

On their following possession, the Celtics run a Horns set with Tatum and Jaylen Brown above the elbows. When Young dislodges himself from Tatum and doubles Marcus Smart, the situation looks promising, with the four-time All-Star open in the paint. But the entry pass doesn't have enough air on it, and Atlanta's undersized point guard elevates, knocks it away, and comes up with the steal.

Two of Boston's other five turnovers in the fourth quarter were offensive fouls on screens intended to get Young switched onto the Celtics' stars.

The hosts went 2/7 from the field in the final five minutes, targeting Young nearly every time down the floor. They repeatedly went at him yet never created one-on-one opportunities for Tatum or Brown against him. It's not like their efforts led to open shots or points at the rim for the tandem's teammates, either.

Young and the Hawks deserve a ton of credit for that, but Boston also has to be less stubborn about forcing the issue in a situation like that.

Young had his own targets in mind at the other end, punishing the Celtics for their double-big lineup.

In the play below, the two-time All-Star gets Jaylen Brown on a switch, but Young knows Robert Williams will be in drop coverage when he comes off the Onyeka Okongwu screen. With the pick above the arc and the Time Lord below the three-point line, the former Oklahoma Sooner steps into a clean look and buries it, tying the game at 111.

Young made four shots in the fourth quarter: three were when targeting Boston's big men; the fourth was his game-winner from 30 feet.

TRAE YOUNG FROM THE LOGO. HAWKS TAKE LEAD 😱😱😱 pic.twitter.com/04t1qhiImy

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 26, 2023

In the Celtics' 129-121 win in Game 4, the Williams and Horford pairing registered a 128.1 offensive rating, limited the Hawks to 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and generated a plus-25.2 net rating.

Tuesday, while Boston was failing to exploit Young's defensive deficiencies, offensively, he was taking advantage of the double-big lineup, a combination that's extended the series.

Maybe this is the loss that serves as the Celtics' wake-up call. Perhaps, it's a blip on the radar en route to Banner 18. But it's definitively added mileage on their tires and bought Joel Embiid more time to recover from his right knee sprain.

Boston went 3-1 against the Sixers in the regular season. And the Celtics, a team built around two All-Star wings, have repeatedly proven to be a bad matchup for Philadelphia, who's slower and revolves around a center who does his damage inside the arc. The former will live with that, provided they keep Embiid off the free-throw line, which they tend to do a pretty good job of.

But not efficiently closing out its series against the Bucks and the Heat added to a bill that came due in the Finals when fatigue finally caught up with Boston. Even if the Celtics get through the Sixers, even if they get back to the NBA's brightest stage, not putting away the Hawks in Game 5 could have a role in costing them the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Further Reading

Celtics Share Their Perspective on Game 5 Collapse: 'You Give a Team Life, You Leave It Up to Chance'

Here's What Stood Out in Celtics' Game 5 Loss vs. Hawks: Boston Talks the Talk but Doesn't Walk It

Celtics Praise Robert Williams for Impact in What They Deemed a Must-Win Game 4: 'Can't Even Give Words to What Rob Does on Our Team'

Jaylen Brown Discusses His Mask-Ditching Monster Performance as Celtics Push Hawks to Brink of Elimination

Jayson Tatum on Celtics' Maintaining a Must-Win Mindset: 'We're Trying Not to Make it Tougher on Ourselves'

Here's What Stood Out in Celtics' Game 4 Win vs. Hawks: Jaylen Brown's 22 Second-Half Points Propels Boston to 3-1 Series Lead

[Film Room] Derrick White's Assertiveness Leads to 26 Points, MVP Chants as Celtics Take 2-0 Lead

The Celtics Discuss Their Game 1 Win vs. the Hawks: 'We Can't Take Our Foot Off the Gas'