Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
For the Celtics, a Quiet Trade Deadline May Prove Best
Saturday's 106-104 win against the Raptors was a sterling example of how deep this iteration of the Celtics is.
Boston's bench outscored Toronto's second unit 62-14. Jayson Tatum's team earned its first road victory without him in three years. And as the night unfolded, the visitors lost three starters. Still, the Celtics' talent and depth allowed them to utilize a lineup featuring Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon, Grant Williams, and Payton Pritchard to close out the game.
Brown's absence in Boston's most recent matchup against the Nets and Tatum's being on the inactive list against the Raptors led to Joe Mazzulla deploying the trio of Brogdon, Derrick White, and Pritchard.
It's a small sample size, but in five games and 33 minutes total, that combination's generating a 112.3 offensive rating and limiting opponents to 97 points per 100 possessions, producing a net rating of 15.3, per NBA.com.
Those figures reflect each member of the trio's ability to operate effectively on and off the ball offensively, and Brogdon and White, who have 6'10 and 6'7.5 wingspans, respectively, having the defensive versatility to guard one through three. Plus, Pritchard's a tenacious on-ball defender who's proven himself in the Celtics' switch-heavy scheme, including in a playoff setting.
In Saturday's win north of the border, Pritchard pressuring Pascal Siakam, who registered a game-high 29 points, helped limit the two-time All-NBA forward to five points on four shots in the final frame.
The former Oregon Duck is a valuable insurance policy behind the rest of his backcourt mates. He's on a rookie deal with a team-friendly qualifying offer of $5.96 million for the 2024-25 campaign. And he's proving he can fill the rotation role called into question by Sam Hauser's shooting slump.
Instead of a reunion with Jae Crowder, bringing back old friend Kelly Olynyk, or trading for Naz Reid, Boston could bet on Pritchard and make a move aimed at helping the Celtics get through the regular season.
Regarding recent reports of Boston's interest in swinging a deal for Jakob Poeltl, while that was true to an extent before Robert Williams returned, it's since waned. Furthermore, trading multiple first-round picks for a rental isn't good business.
The Celtics could re-sign Poeltl over restricted free agent Grant Williams this summer, but as good defensively and on the glass as the former is, the latter is a more versatile and impactful player. Plus, it's easier to add a quality center to the rotation than for Boston to replace Williams.
As currently constructed, factoring in re-signing Williams, a restricted free agent this summer, and Danilo Gallinari picking up his $6.8 million player option, the Celtics project to go $15-20 million over the luxury tax for the 2023-24 season.
While ownership's consistently proven comfortable with that operating cost, the prospect of adding to that figure is relevant to who Boston targets between now and the Feb. 9 trade deadline.
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For instance, Crowder's separation from the Suns stems from losing his starting spot to Cameron Johnson in a contract year. Entering a season that he's yet to participate in, Crowder sought a deal in the neighborhood of the three-year, close to $30 million pact he signed when he took his talents to Phoenix.
Trading Pritchard for a rental is unlikely. Boston could part with a first-round pick, but because of the Stepien Rule, the Celtics, who sent their 2023 first-round selection to the Pacers to add Brogdon without subtracting Williams, can't trade their first-round capital in 2024 until after the 2023 Draft unless they acquire a first-round pick in this or next year's draft.
Crowder's a gritty, physical defender, but he's also less reliable than Olynyk from beyond the arc: he's a career 34.6 percent three-point shooter on 4.5 attempts.
In his last three seasons, which includes when he caught fire with the Heat in the bubble in Orlando, the only time he shot 40 percent or better from long range, drilling 44.5 percent of the 6.4 threes he launched, Crowder's roughly league-average as a three-point shooter.
Since the 2019-20 season, he's taking a tick under six attempts outside the arc per game and converting them at a 36 percent clip.
Olynyk, now in his tenth season, is burying 41.3 percent of the 3.5 threes he's hoisting per game. And if Robert Williams or Horford went down, while he likely would continue coming off the bench, he'd help Boston absorb what would be a devastating blow.
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The Gonzaga alum has a partial guarantee for only $3 million next season, per Spotrac, but it's a safe bet he earns the entirety of the $12.2 million he's potentially on the books for in 2023-24.
The Celtics would undoubtedly include Gallinari in a trade for Olynyk to help make the math work, so at most, they'd be going $1.4 million further into the luxury tax next season. Boston could also include Hauser or Luke Kornet in the deal instead of Justin Jackson's expiring contract to acquire Olynyk and reduce its luxury tax bill.
If the Celtics upgrade their rotation between now and the trade deadline, Olynyk makes as much sense and is as realistic an option as any potential target.
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Regarding the possibility of swapping Pritchard for Reid, who's under contract for $1.9 million, then becomes a 24-year-old unrestricted free agent this summer, making that move would likely signal Boston views Reid as a player in its plans beyond this season.
While the Celtics would be increasing an already-steep tax bill, moving Pritchard and Kornet's deals off the books would make doing so more reasonable. The latter is under contract for $2.4 million next season.
But with Pritchard proving his value to this season's team, one that boasts the NBA's best record at 35-12, Boston may decide its rotation is set and focus on acquiring a player to help get through the regular season.
Keith Smith of Celtics Blog recently reported league sources indicated Boston's been active in trade talks for players making under $7 million this season.
The Celtics' $6.9 million traded player exception (TPE) from the deal that sent Juancho Hernangomez to the Spurs expired this week. But Boston still has, among other TPEs, one worth $5.9 million from when it re-routed Dennis Schroder to the Rockets.
That TPE expires a day after the Feb. 9 trade deadline. However, as Celtics fans have learned in recent years, these often go unused, and it would hardly be surprising if that's the case with this one.
Boston also has a $3.23 million disabled player exception it received because of Gallinari's ACL tear. That could come in handy when the buyout market heats up after the trade deadline.
And if the Celtics go forward with Pritchard in the rotation and on the team past the trade deadline, there's a case for Hauser receiving the playing time that becomes available from managing the minutes of the players ahead of him.
Boston could add a center, but even on that front, Kornet and Blake Griffin, who provided valuable minutes against the Raptors on Saturday, showed that the Celtics could justify standing pat.
They could also utilize Mfiondu Kabengele, who's on a two-way contract, when pacing Robert Williams and Horford through the rest of the campaign.
So, while Boston has options, its best solutions might be internal.
Further Reading
The Top 5 Plays from Saturday's Celtics-Raptors Game
Celtics Reportedly Looking for Players in Very Specific Range Ahead of NBA Trade Deadline
Western Conference Rival Reportedly Has Shown Trade Interest in Celtics Guard Payton Pritchard
