The Three Most Impactful Rookies Through Christmas

Detailing the three most impactful rookies one-third into the season, using Dunks & Threes' estimated-plus minus (EPM) as an approximator for impact.

Nov 17, 2024; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey (14) shoots during the second half against the Denver Nuggets at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Christmas day is finally upon us, which means we're about one-third of the way into the 2024-25 season. This means that season statistics are starting to stabilize with a larger sample size, which means that all-in-one metrics are beginning to stabilize as well.

Estimated plus-minus (EPM) by Taylor Snarr on the Dunks & Threes website is by many considered the best impact metric available publicly, and for good reason. It combines custom Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) with Statistical Plus-Minus (SPM), takes inspiration from past metrics like Dan Rosenbaum's Adjusted plus-minus and Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Illardi's Real Plus-Minus (RPM), and integrates multiple other methodologies (described in detail on the website) to create arguably the most reliable impact metric we have.

Below is a list of the top three rookies in EPM, so to detail the most impactful first-year players thus far, and the factors that are driving their value, an explanation as to how EPM got there.

1. Zach Edey

Dec 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey (14) in the game against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Who would lead the 2024 draft class in estimated plus-minus but one Zachry Cheyne Edey? The 7-foot-4, 305 lbs, 22-year-old and two-time college player of the year currently holds a +0.7 estimated plus-minus, which ranks in the 75th percentile among all players. No other rookie ranks above the 65th percentile. This dominance is powered by Edey's finishing, offensive rebounding, and shot-blocking, where he ranks in the 84th, 99th, and 91st percentiles, respectively. Edey is also 8-for-15 from three in just over 380 NBA minutes, after attempting just two threes in over 3400 NCAA minutes.

2. Jaylen Wells

Dec 23, 2024; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden (1) handles the ball as Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaylen Wells (0) defends during the first quarter at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

That's right: the Memphis Grizzlies hold the two best rookies in the NBA ~33% into the season. Jaylen Wells disrupts opponents with his defense and wrecks them his shooting, integrating the two to cook up a +0.1 and 65th percentile estimated plus-minus. He's among the best in the league in defending drives, per Todd Whitehead, and is shooting a 74th percentile 39% from three on over eight attempts per 100 possessions.

3. Jared McCain

Dec 4, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain (20) looks on during the fourth quarter against the Orlando Magic at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

And last but certainly not least is none other than TikTok superstar, Jared McCain. Before sadly going down with a torn lateral meniscus, McCain was torching each and every team and all but had the NBA Rookie of the Year locked up. He was averaging 22.2 points and 3.8 assists per 75 possessions on 58.9% true shooting, leading to an exactly +0.0 estimated plus-minus that landed him in the 63rd percentile. McCain's EPM takes a major hit due to his defense, as his -1.3 defensive EPM ranks 8th-worst among rookies playing 15-plus minutes per game. On the other end, his +1.3 offensive EPM ranks 1st.

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