2023-2024 Breakout Watch: Penn State's Zach Hicks

After two impactful years at Temple, Zach Hicks off to Penn State and is ready to breakout on the NBA draft radar.

During his first two collegiate seasons at Temple, Zach Hicks quietly earned some prospect love as one of the better under the radar prospects in the AAC. Now, as one of the most significant transfer portal additions for Mike Rhoades' Penn State squad and the Big Ten, Hicks will have both the opportunity and platform to breakout on draft board this season. What’s his NBA appeal and what should evaluators be monitoring?

2022-2023 Stats: 32 GP I 9.6 PPG I 5.1 RPG I 1.6 APG I 0.7 SPG I 0.4 BPG

Shooting Stats: 34.8% FG I 35.6% 3PT (7 attempts) I 68.8% FT (32 attempts)

Hicks’ NBA Appeal

The pairing of positional size and 3-point shooting. Listed at 6-foot-8 and 195 pounds with a career 36% 3-point mark (388 attempts), Hicks marries NBA wing size with the knockdown perimeter shooting that NBA evaluators are captivated by. In his two seasons at Temple, the sharpshooting wing led Temple with 141 made triples.

Hicks is at his best operating as a spot up, catch-and-shoot player where his easy shooting stroke, sound mechanics and high release shine. Last season, he shot 37.5% on 144 spot up threes and 35.5% on 214 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts including more versatility as a movement shooter than he gets credit for. 

A clear role for NBA teams to envision. Because of his NBA wing size and translatable 3-point shooting, Hicks will be identified as someone that can slot into a 3-and-D role. The defensive end still requires work, but the hope is that his size and length can eventually yield serviceable defensive results that can keep him on the floor to thrive as a shooter.

The Lundy and Pickett effect. Any time a school produces recent NBA players, especially drafted ones, NBA decision makers are bound to return to the well, and that’s the case here.

In Jalen Pickett and Seth Lundy, Penn State had two players selected in the 2023 NBA draft. Pickett was selected No. 32 overall by the Denver Nuggets (highest Nittany Lion drafted since current Nuggets GM, Calvin Booth) and Seth Lundy by the Atlanta Hawks with the No. 46 overall pick.

Additionally, Hicks’ commonality with both Pickett (transfers) and Lundy (projected 3-and-D wings), give more reason for evaluators to keep a closer eye on Hicks this fall.

Areas to Monitor

Defensive playmaking. As previously mentioned, Hicks in theory should be able to slot into a 3-and-D role, but the defensive portion of the role will need to take a leap to truly fulfill it. There is a difference between slotting into a role and fulfilling it, and he is a prime example of that.

He likely doesn't possess the ideal quick twitch athleticism, lateral quickness or defensive instincts to develop into a plus defender and that’s fine. For him, it will be about finding ways to generate defensive events/plays by leveraging his size and length with an increased activity to compensate so that he can stay on the floor. Hicks’ 1.3 stocks per game (0.7 steals plus 0.6 blocks) is a number I’m hoping to see rise in a tougher Big Ten conference.

Closeout attacks. Understanding how to attack closeouts is critically important, particularly for 3-point shooters like Hicks, who hold legit shooting gravity and essentially only shoot threes (seven out of his 9.2 field goal attempts per game were threes). Opposing teams will run them off the line and force them to put the ball on the floor, going away from what a shooter does best.

Hicks has shown the capability and progressive comfortability to attack closeouts then read the defense to make the proper play, whether that’s creating a shot for himself via the pull up or finding a teammate with a drop off or kick out pass. This must become an increased emphasis of his game to naturally combat hard closeouts.

Notable ancillary skill or on ball self-creation development. For the most part, Hicks has proven to primarily be an off ball shooter whose shots are either created by others, his own off ball movement or closeout attacks. Last season, 76.8% of his shots came from beyond the arc and 95% of them were assisted.

He isn't equipped with much wiggle or bust off the bounce to create a ton of space, but more aggression as a self creator off the bounce, at least in advantageous scoring scenarios, would be a welcome sight to diversity his scoring arsenal and could potentially lead to an uptick in his 32 total free throw attempts in 32 games.

If his jumper isn't falling, what can Hicks hang his hat on? Can he find other ways to impact the game? Noticeable realistic ancillary skill development from connective passing, rebounding and on ball screen operation are all ceiling raiser skills to monitor.

Final Thoughts

Hicks will enter the 2023-2024 season as a top 100 prospect on my board. Tall wing, knockdown shooters simply will always have plug and play value on a NBA floor. As Hicks navigates the rigors of a new conference, furthering his defensive impact and ancillary skill development will be vital to his draft stock as he could be the next Nittany Lion drafted in either the 2024 or 2025 class.

All stats via Synergy, Basketball Reference and Hoop-math. 

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