2024 NBA Draft: Key Themes Beginning to Emerge

When looking at the upcoming draft class, what themes are becoming clear?

We're roughly halfway into the NBA season, which means draft boards are still somewhat unclear. It's important to know what teams may be looking for and to gather more data on players to truly cement a final board. 

Regardless, it's never too early to start laying the groundwork on official draft boards. What are three clear themes about this upcoming class that are staying to emerge?

This Draft Isn’t Top Heavy

Matas Buzelis, Ronald Holland, and Alex Sarr :: Ethan Miller/Getty Images

It’s been discussed ad nauseam by basketball scouts and writers, but this draft isn’t nearly as attractive at the top as some of the recent classes have been. Even next year’s class has more obvious star power at the top, with future ticket-sellers like Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey headlining the 2025 NBA Draft class.

Still, that doesn’t mean there isn’t talent to be found in the 2024 class. While the college ranks may not be producing a ton of top-five picks this year, there are plenty of international and G League guys that can prove this “weak draft” hypothesis wrong – at least, to an extent.

There are only three guys that could be potential stars at the next level, at least early on. When looking at some of the top prospects in the class, it's Alexandre Sarr, Nikola Topic and Ron Holland.

Sarr is the obvious No. 1 at this point, which makes sense given the resurgence of the big man in the NBA. These bigs have to do different things to play pro basketball than they did in the ‘80s and ‘90s, but the size is still a huge advantage.

The French big man (sound familiar?) stands at 7-foot-1, and though his 3-point shooting isn’t good enough to award him the “stretch big” moniker, it is at least exciting that he’s stepping out and trying shots from deep. He's a rim runner, a rim protector, a shot blocker, and a lob finisher, all of which is very valuable no matter the era in which you're playing. 

The next potential star from this class is another international player, a 6-foot-6 point guard prospect from Serbia named Nikola Topic. It seems almost a foregone conclusion that Topic will land in San Antonio, as he’d be the perfect fit for what they’re trying to do offensively after the “Jeremy Sochan point guard experiment” didn't work out as well as they'd hoped. 

The third player that has very high potential is G League Ignite star Ronald Holland, a former Texas Longhorns commit that flipped to play for the NBA’s premier pre-Association affiliate. Holland is a combo forward that leans towards the four spot.  Though Holland is lacking in size for the position at just 6-feet-6, he makes up for it by being a ferocious rebounder with as high a motor as you’ll see. In high school at Duncanville, TX, he was dominant, and was the highest-rated recruit in the state for his class. He's highly aggressive, physical, fast, strong, and mentally tough, and though his shooting and creation leave something to be desired, he's still a bonafide star prospect.

Of all the prospects in upcoming class, these three stand out.

An Underrated Class of Bigs

Yves Missi, Baylor / John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Just because there is just two or three players considered post/bigs that have a legitimate chance to go in the lottery, doesn’t mean there aren’t some interesting names later on in the first round.

Sarr is obviously your crown jewel, but after that, who is the top 4/5?

The next-best big is Yves Missi from Baylor, followed by Donovan Clingan from UConn and Kyle Filipowski from Duke.

Other candidates include Tidjane Salaun from France, though his game revolves around catch-and-shoot threes more than it does protecting the paint. 

With the success of Dereck Lively II in Dallas, teams with off-the-dribble creators should be looking for big lob threats to pair with primary ball handlers like Luka Doncic. Salaun doesn’t fit that mold specifically, though maybe he could be coached into doing more of those things.

An Abundance of Upperclassmen

Ryan Dunn, Virginia.  / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Whether this is a knock on the class or not, there’s no doubt that this class will have an inordinate amount of guys being selected who are already in their 20s.

Just because a guy is older on draft day by a few months doesn’t they can't be a great NBA player. Some guys come on late. Look at Jaime Jaquez for example, who’s averaging 14 points, 3.9 boards, and 2.7 dimes per game as an upperclassman rookie out of UCLA.

First-round hopefuls like Jaxson Robinson (BYU), Tristan da Silva (Colorado), Kevin McCullar Jr. (Kansas), Dalton Knecht (Tennessee), Bobi Klintman (Sweden), Ajay Mitchell (UCSB), Hunter Sallis (Wake Forest), Trevone Brazile (Arkansas), Tyrese Proctor (Duke), Dillon Mitchell (Texas), and a big group of similarly talented guys with an extra year or two of experience under their belts, could make an early impact on whichever team drafts them.

This could be the oldest draft in recent memory, but that doesn’t mean it will necessarily be the weakest. This draft has a higher floor than people would like to give it credit for, as opposed to gawking at the low ceiling of the class on the whole. 

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