2024 NBA Draft Prospect Profile: DJ Wagner

Let's take a quick look into projected lottery pick DJ Wagner's game.

Kentucky had an excellent recruiting cycle, signing five of the top 50 players in the 2023 recruiting class according to 247.com.

One of the five Kentucky signees, DJ Wagner, is the sixth overall recruit in the 2023 class. He’s listed at 6-foot-3, 165 pounds, and doesn’t turn 19 years old until next May. He attended Camden High School in New Jersey, where he played with fellow Kentucky-commit and seven-footer Aaron Bradshaw. Additionally, Wagner has been around basketball his whole life, as both his father Dajuan Wagner and grandfather Milt Wagner both were top-10 picks in their respective NBA Drafts.

So, what makes Wagner so intriguing and a projected lottery pick in next year’s draft? Let’s walk through his game.

Although I like using a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis in certain scouting reports, given that Wagner has an entire season at Kentucky to turn any of his weaknesses and threats into strengths, it might be unnecessary and fairly harsh to label any of Wagner’s micro-skills as weaknesses or threats to his career in the NBA. Therefore, let's walk through Wagner’s strengths and opportunities below, and discuss how front offices may currently view different developmental paths for Wagner.

Strengths

Open-Court Athleticism

To start, Wagner is an exceptional athlete with a blend of speed and strength that will bode well for him at Kentucky. He has a knack for getting all the way to the rim and getting a bucket if the defense isn’t fully set, such as in transition, where he uses this athleticism to weave his way through defenders and finish through contact. He has downhill speed when given a runway and he uses savvy step-through moves to finish around taller defenders during these rim attacks.

Rim Pressure

While it's easier to attack the defense when not set, Wagner has also shown potential creating rim pressure in the halfcourt. Creating rim pressure, albeit it may be an X-factor for him during this upcoming season at Kentucky, is currently a strength of his that should translate to his time in the NCAA. The 6-foot-3 guard has above-average burst and uses a combination of a quick crossover and serviceable change-of-speed to get to the rim.

At Kentucky, it's important for him to increase his use of crafty footwork within the paint and develop more counters. This will help him when he gets stuck or when he can't consistently create rim pressure, as his explosiveness isn't quite at a level where he can always utilize it possession after possession at Kentucky.

Attacking Closeouts

While Wagner's jumper is still developing, will be touched on later, he still poses to be enough of a threat from the perimeter to force urgent closeouts. He has a quick-enough first step to attack closeouts, allowing him to have more attempts at the rim or even create for others once he drives by his defender closing out.

Ball-Handling

One area that bodes well for Wagner's quest to fulfill the role of a ball-handler in the NBA is his ability to stay poised when faced with show coverage or aggressive drop coverage. This stood out in the Imhotep-Camden game, where he used a compact dribble and speed to beat the hedging big and get his teammate open at the top of the key for a split second.

Lateral Quickness Defensively

Wagner has the potential to fulfill the role of a Point-Of-Attack Defender in the NBA due to his combination of lateral quickness and on-ball screen navigation he showed in high school. He slides his feet well, commonly keeping his man in front and rarely giving up on plays.

Below are examples of his lateral quickness:

Below are examples of his on-ball screen navigation and rearview pursuits:

Opportunities to Grow His Game

Upper Body Strength (Defensively)

To stay with the topic of defense, the only thing standing in Wagner's way is his upper-body strength. On multiple drives, opponents were able to finish through him at the rim despite Wagner being in the right position. While he's certainly not weak and is only eighteen, with his future opponents in the NBA being the best and strongest athletes in the world, this is an area he should improve to become a consistent Point-Of-Attack Defender in the NBA.

For example, Silas Demary Jr -- the driver in the clip below -- is a 6-foot-4, 180 pound, 4-star recruit signed to the University of Georgia. Wagner will go up against many physical guards, similar to Demary Jr, both next year at Kentucky and in the NBA.

Catch-And-Shoot Threes

Although Wagner figures to offer open-court athleticism, rim pressure, ball-handling, and the ability to attack closeouts offensively, an important swing skill for him this upcoming season will be his catch-and-shoot threes. Being able to hit catch-and-shoot threes is a crucial skill in the NBA, and one that allows players to get more minutes and fit into a variety of lineups. Unfortunately, Wagner’s catch-and-shoot is still a work-in-progress, as he shot 23.8% on 80 catch-and-shoot jumpers in the summer of 2022. Additionally, he only shot 71.2% from the free-throw line during EYBL in 2022 (3.3 attempts per game), which may deter some scouts from believing in his potential in this area.

Upon watching film, it appears that one reason why his catch-and-shoot jumper isn’t always falling is the lack of fluidity within his shooting motion. The best and most consistent shooting forms are one with a fluid energy transfer, where the power from the legs is transferred quickly and effectively to the player’s upper body.

Below is an example of why Wagner may not be hitting his catch-and-shoot jumpers consistently, as his energy transfer is not one fluid motion. He first steps into the shot with left-right footwork, bends his knees, and eventually transfers the energy to his upper body. However, the extra time he takes when prepping the shot loses his momentum from his left-right footwork and therefore from his lower body as a whole.

However, the incoming Kentucky freshman has shown a distinct awareness of this lack-of-fluidity motion and commonly fixes it later within a game – sometimes even just a few possessions later.

For example, the shot below comes later within the same game against Combine Academy (NC). The difference between the two attempts is almost night and day, as he enters into this shot with the same left-right footwork as before, however this time he enters into this footwork quicker and therefore begins his shooting motion quicker and with one, fluid energy transfer.

Luckily, Wagner's catch-and-shoot jumper has continued to progress as 2023 has gone on. The best catch-and-shoot motion I've seen thus far from him came just last week during Kentucky's battle against Canada at GLOBL Jam, shown below. He enters into his signature left-right footing with an urgency we haven't seen before, building energy from both this and already being in a triple-threat, then transferring this energy directly into his upper body motion.

Pull-Up Game

While we've discussed rim pressure and now catch-and-shoot threes, the next aspect of Wagner's potential offensive game is his shooting off-the-dribble. He hasn't been great in this area statistically, as he converted 32.3% of his 67 attempts in the summer of 2022. It should be noted that 2022 is the last publicly-available data regarding Wagner's dribble jumpers and catch-and-shoot efficiency.

His faults in this area sometimes reside within similar reasons as his misses on catch-and-shoot attempts. It's certainly not because of a lack of balance on pull-ups, which can be a problem for some players. For Wagner, some misses rely mostly on the lack of lift, which again primarily comes from issues regarding the energy transfer from his legs to his upper body.

However, this is not without saying he doesn’t have potential in this area. Other times, he hits off-the-dribble jumpers and other difficult shots without issue.

SMOOTH, DJ 🤝 pic.twitter.com/ucNcPE3jsw

— Kentucky Men’s Basketball (@KentuckyMBB) July 12, 2023

Playmaking

Playmaking is another important swing factor for Wagner. If he develops into a high-feel, elite playmaker during his freshman year at Kentucky, then front offices will likely feel more comfortable about letting him be a primary ball-handler and leading their offense when out on the floor. He has already shown potential in this area, especially out of the pick-and-roll. In the clips below, Wagner reads the low man and, once he sees he's rotating towards the rolling big, hits Cian Medley on the left wing for an open three. The first example is also a live-dribble one-handed righty pass, which should be noted.

The former Camden (NJ) High School player has also shown playmaking ability off of creating rim pressure, commonly hitting teammates in the midrange or strong-side corners.

Conclusion

There's two main pathways Wagner can take in terms of offensive development. The first is as a primary ball-handler, where he'd be leading an offense and initiating rim pressure and pick-and-rolls consistently. In order for him to thrive in this role, he needs to continue developing his playmaking skills to an elite level and prove to front offices that he truly has the burst and verticality to create rim pressure and finish at the rim with ease at Kentucky. As mentioned briefly earlier, improving his counters once he gets to the paint -- possibly adding a fadeaway jumper or an ability to pivot or pump-fake his way into an open shot at the rim -- could go a long way.

The second pathway is as more of a combo guard. While he wouldn't have to necessarily develop into an elite playmaker or rim pressure guard, he would need to improve his catch-and-shoot ability and qualm any concerns that he couldn't play off-ball. He's shown improvement in this area already, and has the potential to hit catch-and-shoot jumpers consistently if he practices having a more fluid energy transfer with one, succinct motion.

Defensively, Wagner must continue to display his lateral quickness but also develop a stronger upper-body to ensure bigger guards can't muscle their way to the rim and finish through him.

All in all, Wagner projects to make an immediate impact on Kentucky and be one of the most productive and talented guards in the country next season. I'm looking forward to seeing him play and wish him the best of luck this upcoming season.

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