2025 NBA Draft: Texas Tech's JT Toppin Primed for a Monster Season

The Mountain West Co-Freshman of the Year transferred this offseason, landing in Lubbock to play for Grant McCasland's Red Raiders. Can he live up to his first-round potential?

Mar 22, 2024; Memphis, TN, USA; Clemson Tigers forward Ian Schieffelin (4) drives to the basket as New Mexico Lobos forward JT Toppin (15) defends during the second half in the NCAA Tournament First Round at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Coming out of high school, Jadyn "JT" Toppin was just a high three to low four-star recruit according to most services, garnering a handful of offers, though mostly from non-Power Five schools.

Eventually deciding on New Mexico, Toppin turned in an outstanding freshman campaign that helped the Lobos win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Alongside additional stars like Donovan Dent and Jaelen House, Richard Pitino's team made it to the NCAA Tournament as an 11-seed, falling in the First Round to a highly talented Clemson team.

This offseason, Toppin announced he would transfer, and garnered the eyes of coaches all across the basketball landscape. Everyone wanted to land the coveted power forward, whose freshman production was incredibly impressive. It should also be noted that his contributions were not empty; he was a very important piece on a very good team, which should count for something.

After weighing his options, Toppin eventually chose Texas Tech over Texas and other schools, deciding to play for incoming second-year head coach Grant McCasland in a system based on physicality and a slowed-down pace. Luckily for Toppin (and for the Red Raiders), this style of basketball fits him as well as it could fit anyone.

After all, Toppin is a banger inside, a monster on the glass that averaged 9.1 boards last year, including 3.7 on the offensive end per game alone. He is physically strong and very athletic, but an underrated part of his game is his hand dexterity. His ability to rip rebounds and score on put-backs is amongst the best in the country.

Though operating almost entirely in the post, Toppin has demonstrated the occasional ability to step out and hit the three, shooting 35.5% from deep on 0.9 attempts per game last year. Though this volume isn't enough to say he's a "floor-spacer," it is a possible indicator of future success despite the lack of attempts (though a jump in free-throw percentage would alleviate some of the doubts).

According to Synergy Sports, Toppin is in the 95th percentile in points per shot, averaging 1.28 per attempt, which is considered "Excellent" by the statistics company. This is 0.12 points per shot over the expected for his shot quality, meaning his efficiency really is one of the strengths of his game.

But scoring and rebounding are not his only assets – he averaged an outstanding 1.9 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. Not only can he affect shots at the rim despite being just 6-foot-9, Toppin can also rip the ball away in the post and create live-ball turnovers.

Overall, Toppin is the kind of player who can drastically improve a frontcourt off the bat, a guy who can outright dominate and intimidate opponents despite not being the tallest guy on the floor. His physicality matches anyone's, and despite how tough of a conference the Big 12 can be on the hardwood, Toppin is built for this league.

Depending on how the season goes, he could end up being a near-lottery pick in an elite class of players. Given how young he is, it's still possible he could grow even taller, as his height isn't elite for his position, but he plays so much bigger than he is that it may not matter in the end. Packing muscle onto his current 210-pound frame will also play a role in his development, but this will happen over time with college (and professional) weight-lifting regiments.

The situation in which he's landing in Lubbock is such a culture fit for a banger inside; it seems as if JT Toppin was built in a laboratory to play in the front court for Texas Tech. Watching him battle against the best in the country will be a really intriguing storyline not just for the NBA Draft watchers, but for college basketball viewers at large.

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