A Study on Undersized Guards in the NBA

In the 2003-2012 NBA draft classes, 62.5% of drafted players listed under 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA. In the 2013-2022 draft classes, this number had a significant drop-off as only 45.7% of drafted players listed under 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA or are currently in the NBA and considered likely to stick.

Background

It's a common notion around NBA circles that it's becoming increasingly difficult for smaller guards to "stick" in the NBA. The league is becoming filled with more wings that have longer wingspans, are capable of handling the basketball, can make sound decisions, and most importantly (hypothetically) can switch onto multiple positions and cover more ground as a versatile defender.

Let's dive into the data and figure out whether or not this notion that it's becoming increasingly difficult for smaller guards to "stick" in the NBA is supported by the results of recently drafted "undersized guards."

"Undersized guards" are defined as players drafted who are listed at 6-foot-1 or shorter. A player who "sticks" or a player "sticking" in the NBA indicates that they played five or more seasons in the NBA or, if applicable, indicates a player is currently in the NBA (and on track to play five or more seasons). Additionally, for further context, we will be looking at data from the past 20 draft classes, excluding the most recent 2023 NBA Draft due the outcomes of the players being unknown.

Baseline Data

I first looked at the data from the 2003-2022 classes in totality, which indicated that 53.7% of players drafted listed shorter than 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA or are currently on track to stick in the NBA. What does this mean to us? It gives us a general baseline for the likelihood of "undersized guards" to stick in the past 20 years. For context, 80% of first-round picks from 2003-2017 "stuck" in the NBA or are currently in the NBA. However, that number drops to 28% for second-round picks.

Draft Express NBA Pick Expectations (2003-2017) / Draft Express

While the probability of a player under 6-foot-2 drafted during 2003-2022 sticking in the NBA is 53.7%, the probability of any player drafted within picks 31-40 over 2003-2017 is 42%.

Pick Expectations for NBA Draft picks from 2003-2017 / Draft Express

The Main Finding

While this baseline is important to keep in the back our minds, the movement against undersized guards began more recently than 2003. Therefore, I split up the data between the 2003-2012 draft classes and the 2013-2022 draft classes to see how the probability of an undersized guard sticking has changed comparing the past 10 years to the prior 10 years.

The findings: 20 of 32 players (62.5%) players drafted who were listed at 6-foot-1 or shorter "stuck" in the NBA from 2003-2012. From 2013-2022, only 16 of 35 (45.7%) players drafted listed at 6-foot-1 or shorter "stuck" in the NBA or are on track to stick in the NBA.

This illustrates a noteworthy decrease in the probability of an undersized guard sticking in today's NBA versus from 2003-2012. As mentioned above, the NBA appears to be shifting towards taller, longer players that can cover more ground defensively, guard multiple positions, and provides them more opportunity on the offensive end for a variety of reasons as well. Assuming a potential defensive disadvantage is one of the main reasons teams may be hesitant to draft undersized guards, what if we looked at undersized guards who had a defensive impact in college?

Out of the 13 undersized guards drafted from 2013-2022 with a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of +3.0 or better in their final season prior to being drafted, eight of them (61.5%) played five or more years in the NBA or are currently on track to stick. Therefore, when you attempt to eliminate the players who weren't impactful on the defensive end in college, the number of undersized guards who stuck from the 2013-2022 draft classes skyrockets from 45.7% to 61.5%. While undoubtedly a small sample size, this is something to keep in mind when scouting future classes.

For context, from the 2013-2022 draft classes, the players we are counting as "stuck" due to playing 5+ years in the NBA or "on track to stick" are Dennis Schroder, Trey Burke, Shabazz Napier, Tyus Jones, Terry Rozier, Devonte' Graham, Jevon Carter, Aaron Holiday, Trae Young, Darius Garland, Tre Jones, Malachi Flynn, Payton Pritchard, Kira Lewis, Jr, Miles McBride, and Davion Mitchell.

Effectiveness in Playoffs

Something else to consider is, although 45.7% of undersized guards drafted from 2013-2022 have stuck or are on track to stick, are the ones that did effective in the playoffs? Are they targeted on the defensive end?

Fourteen undersized guards who have stuck from the 2013-2022 draft classes have appeared in the playoffs. While a confounding variable is likely that coaches shorten the rotation in the playoffs, these fourteen players have seen a significant average of a 21.7% decrease in their minutes in the playoffs compared to their regular season minutes. The average minutes per game of the fourteen players is 21.2 during the regular season, which drops to 16.6 minutes per game during the playoffs.

*For players who have only made the playoffs once in their career, their average regular season minutes per game for their team that season was used to compare their playoff minutes per game for that team in that singular postseason.

The Data by Height

Another interesting way to break down the data is by height, which we expect to show a direct relationship between increase in height and increase in likelihood to stick.

5-foot-9

From 2003-2022, only three players listed at 5-foot-9 have been drafted. Remarkably, however, two of the three stuck in the NBA. Nate Robinson and Isaiah Thomas are the two players who stuck, and both were drafted before 2013.

5-foot-10

From 2003-2022, four players listed at 5-foot-10 have been drafted. None of the four have stuck, further illustrating the difficulty of sticking as an undersized guard.

5-foot-11

From 2003-2022, five players listed at 5-foot-11 have been drafted. Only one of the five stuck in the NBA: Ty Lawson in 2009. This means that 25% (3-of-12) of players drafted under 6-foot in the last 20 draft classes have stuck, with zero coming within the 2013-2022 draft classes. As mentioned earlier, however, only 28% of second-round picks have stuck from 2003-2017. Therefore, although the number appears low, when contextualized, 25% isn't an extremely low number. However, it is also far from a probability that front offices are targeting.

6-foot

Perhaps in players listed at 6-foot is where we've seen the biggest drop-off in stick rate in the last 10 draft classes (excluding 2023). From 2003-2012, 10 of 14 players (71.4%) listed at 6-foot drafted stuck in the NBA. That number dropped drastically to 30% from 2013-2022 (10 player sample size).

6-foot-1

Contrary to the 6-foot data, players listed at 6-foot-1 have actually seen the opposite trend in their data. From 2003-2012, 50% (7-of-14) of players listed a 6-foot-1 stuck in the NBA. From 2013-2022, that number increased to a whopping 76.4% (13-of-17).

This still means that, from totality of 2003-2022, 64.5% (20-of-31) of players listed at 6-foot-1 have stuck in the NBA. This is similar to the stick-rate of a late first round pick from 2003-2017, as 66% of players drafted in this range over that time period stuck in the NBA.

What about players who were listed at 6-foot-2?

While the rest of the above data focuses on players shorter than 6-foot-2, this is for good reason. A significant 42 players listed at 6-foot-2 have been drafted since 2003. 26 of have stuck, making for a hit-rate of 61.9%.

From 2003-2012, 17 of the 28 players (60.7%) drafted at 6-foot-2 have stuck in the NBA. That number increases to 64.3% from 2013-2022. However, the latter is on a much smaller sample size of 14 players as nine of the 14 stuck or are on track to stick. Therefore, while the likelihood for players drafted at 6-foot-2 sticking only slightly increased, the number of players at that height drafted decreased by 50% over the same time period -- illustrating either the hesitancy of front offices to even take the risk on a 6-foot-2 guard or the lack of talented 6-foot-2 guards in those draft classes.

Stick Rate of Undersized Guards Drafted from 2013-2022 / Data from Real GM and Sports Reference

Conclusions

Overall Trend

The first and most significant conclusion is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to stick as an undersized guard (shorter than 6-foot-2), especially if you do not have a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of +3.0 or higher in college. As stated above, in the 2003-2012 NBA draft classes, 62.5% of drafted players listed under 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA. However, in the 2013-2022 draft classes, only 45.7% of drafted players listed under 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA or are currently in the NBA and considered likely to stick. Something to keep in mind as this trend continues to grow in the NBA is the defensive impact of the undersized guard in college, with eight of the 13 (61.5%) undersized guards who had a DBPM of 3.0 or more in the year they declared stuck in the NBA or are on track to.

Is 6-foot-1 undersized?

Another takeaway to consider may be to not count out 6-foot-1 guards for the immediate future, as a number of them are finding a way to create successful careers for themselves. While 50% (7-of-14) stuck from the 2003-2012 draft classes, 76.4% (13-of-17) stuck or are on track to stick from the 2013-2022 draft classes. 

Furthermore, when you combine the above takeaway with the overall trend, it's evident there's a clear risk in drafting a player listed under 6-foot-1. Only three guards listed at 6-foot or shorter have stuck since 2013 and the overall stick rate for those drafted since then is 15.8% (3-of-19).

Sticking, but limited in the playoffs?

The ultimate goal for NBA teams is to win championships. While the probability of undersized guards sticking has decreased within the last 10 years, perhaps more important is their lack of playing time once the postseason begins and players' limitations are targeted. This is illustrated through a 21.7% decrease in the minutes per game of the fourteen undersized guards who have stuck since the 2013 draft class when comparing regular season MPG and playoff MPG.

Why is all of this important?

Every year there are a number of talented NBA Draft prospects who fit into the bucket of an "undersized guard." This year includes Elliot Cadeau, an extremely talented 6-foot-1 point guard for the Tar Heels. Watching his film and creating a scouting report on him was part of the reason why I chose to dive deeper into the recent data behind undersized guards.

*All unspecified data is from the Real GM or Sports Reference.

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