NBA Draft Stock Watch: Alex Toohey’s Shooting Struggles Continue

Australian wing and NBL Next Star Alex Toohey is a prospect whose size, skill, and basketball intelligence have drawn the eyes of NBA scouts for two seasons running. But once again, his shooting has slumped after a hot start.

Alex Toohey / fiba.basketball

Alex Toohey is a good basketball player, and worth a second-round pick at minimum. Before we scrutinize his jump shooting struggles, deservedly so, it’s worth calling out that we’re putting him under a microscope because of how skilled he is in other areas. At 6-foot-7 and 200 pounds, he has the frame of an NBA wing and has displayed solid team and individual defense in his NBL play since 2023. On offense, he cuts well, keeps the ball moving, runs the floor, and is an impressive offensive rebounder for his position. Simply put, the basketball IQ is off the charts for Toohey. 

But can we look past the shooting?

For the second season running, Toohey got off to a hot start from beyond the arc, over 40 percent on more than four attempts per game. If Toohey had sustained even something close to that level of accuracy and volume, he might have made a case for a lottery position. Unfortunately, he hasn’t. Across 16 NBL games, Toohey is posting shooting splits of 42/30/66 on 2.8 three-point attempts and 2.6 free throw attempts per game. 

Breaking his games played into four quarters, the shot has only gotten worse with each stretch. In the first four games of the season, he shot 44 percent on 16 attempts. Then, 15 percent on 13 attempts in the next four, 30 percent on 10 attempts in the next four, and 20 percent on only five attempts in his last four games. The drop in accuracy is an obvious standout, 21 percent on 28 attempts across 12 games is a steep fall from where he was to start the season. 

Another concerning element is the drop in volume. Toohey was taking four attempts per game in the first quarter, 3.25 per game in the second quarter, 2.5 per game in the third, and has only taken 1.25 attempts per game in his last four games. This means either his team could be looking at other options on offense besides open looks from beyond the arc for him, or Toohey could be struggling with his confidence and passing up looks from beyond the arc himself. It’s likely a combination of the two. 

Furthermore, Toohey is missing open looks from beyond the arc. It’s not like teams have continued to treat him like the 44 percent deadeye he was to start the season and left him little air space to get shots off. Teams had adjusted and occasionally seemed to be encouraging Toohey to let it fly, but he’s not making them play. In a matchup with the Illawarra Hawks in the middle of November, Toohey was 0-of-4 from beyond the arc, and all four looks were open looks. 

Toohey last made a contested three against the Tasmania Jackjumpers in the middle of October. The contest came from Jordon Crawford, the Jackjumper's 5-foot-6 point guard. There are some slight reasons, however, to believe that Toohey could get out of this slump. 

For starters, the form is consistent and good. Toohey’s release is a little slow but generally, he’s getting squared to the rim, releasing his shot high, with good arc, and with good touch and rotation. Take a look at these misses for yourself, many look good and right on target. Close doesn’t mean anything, but when evaluating a prospect and deciding if you think their shooting can improve its pleasing visual aesthetics like Toohey’s that can give you hope. 

Toohey is still shooting with confidence when he gets his shots up. The drop in volume does indicate an overall wariness when it comes to letting it fly relentlessly, but he is still taking threes that show he believes in himself. He’s coming off handoffs and sensing windows to shoot on the move, and in doing so, he’s getting baseline out of bound plays called for him and more. He has remained a positive player for the Sydney Kings and seems determined to get out of his shooting slump. 

Toohey carried a similar determination last season, though, and unfortunately, they never quite found greener pastures. Careers are longer than seasons, though, and even with persisting, there are plenty of reasons to believe in him as a prospect and even believe in his shot. While many will likely view these struggles as detrimental, someone will likely see it as a gamble worth taking, and maybe it will pay off.

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