Analyzing Zach Edey’s Fit In The NBA

The 7-foot-4 Purdue big man is one of the most decorated prospects coming out of college basketball into the NBA in recent memory.

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) is announced into the starting lineup ahead of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Championship game between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Connecticut Huskies, Monday, April 8, 2024, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY

Zach Edey is one of the most decorated yet controversial college players to enter the draft in recent basketball memory. He’s one of three players in NCAA history to twice be named unanimous national player of the year, is second in all major player of the year honors combined with 12, and is the first and only to ever average at least 25.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 2.0 blocks in a season.

Yet, he’s consistently been mocked around the twenties, despite the 2024 draft being almost unanimously considered as the worst draft since 2013.

Those late projections despite an incredible resume are due to a misunderstanding of Edey’s game and how it translates to the NBA. Edey dominated mostly out of post-ups in the NCAA. -- nearly 64% of his possessions -- which ranked in the 100th percentile in terms of volume, and scored at a rate of 1.047 points per possession, which ranked in the 85th percentile in terms of efficiency. However, most don’t believe this scoring will translate to the NBA given the current state of the NBA and its stress on perimeter creation.

While Edey’s post-ups won’t be the focal point of an offense, they can still provide a lot of value through secondary/tertiary scoring. His post-ups can serve as an excellent release valve in late shot clock possessions, where an offense turns to isolation for creation. He’ll also be able to punish mismatches and smaller players in the NBA at the same level as he did in college, which is an effective counter to switching defenses.

Most of the impact he’ll provide on offense in the NBA, though, won’t be through the post, but rather as a screener, roller, playfinisher, and offensive rebounder. While a majority of his interior scoring came out of the post in college, he was still dominant as a rolling play finisher and glass cleaner. He set strong screens and shot 82% on his rolls, while boasting an 18.1 offensive rebound percentage and was in the 81st percentile in putbacks scoring. He also scored 1.854 points per possession on his 48 cuts, which ranked in the 99th percentile, per Synergy. This form of interior scoring with screen and rolls, cuts, dives, lobs, and offensive rebounds will translate seamlessly to the NBA.

Centers that provide complimentary post scoring along with screening and other forms of more scalable interior scoring have already proven to have fruitful careers, as Jonas Valanciunas and Ivica Zubac come to mind.

Edey’s defensive concerns are also overblown. He isn’t and never will be a switchable defender, and isn’t very scheme versatile, which will definitely hold him back. But, he’s still a great drop defender in pick-and-roll and an elite rim protector. With a 6.9 block percentage at 7’4 and 300 pounds, those traits are bound to translate to the NBA as well.

His mobility concerns are often overstated too. He isn’t someone you want defending in space on the perimeter, but he has relatively quick feet and can move well in spurts as backed by his combine numbers. He projects much better in this area than someone like Valanciunas.

The race we’ve all been waiting for. Zach Edey edges Donovan Clingan in 3/4 sprint by .03 of a second. pic.twitter.com/D4QEUCZ5br

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) May 13, 2024

Overall, the paint defense he’ll provide at his size along with solid mobility is good enough for him to be a plus defender in the NBA. Combined with his dominant interior scoring, there’s no reason for Edey to be drafted anywhere outside of the lottery, and he should be considered as early as the sixth pick by the Charlotte Hornets.

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