Ausar Thompson's Dominant Defensive Rookie Season

Ausar Thompson finished in the 71st percentile in estimated plus-minus as just a rookie thanks to his tremendous defense.

Mar 9, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles against Detroit Pistons forward Ausar Thompson (9) in the first half at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Detroit Pistons had a largely slouchy season last year, with very few bright spots on the road to finishing with a 14-68 record. But among those few bright spots was Ausar Thompson, who finished in the 71st percentile in estimated plus-minus (EPM) and was one of six rookies to finish in the 70th percentile or higher. Being one of the few impactful rookies while seeing inconsistent minutes and playing in an undefined role is pretty impressive work.

That's a testament to how good his defense already was in his rookie year, and at just age 21, how good his defense can become in the future. He finished with a +2.5 defensive EPM, which ranked in the 97th percentile and 2nd total among all players under age 22 behind only Victor Wembanyama. He grades out so well in EPM thanks to his defensive versatility: he secures possessions (79th percentile defensive rebound rate), gets steals (84th percentile steal rate) and blocks shots (81st percentile block rate) well and exceptionally well when adjusting for age.

Thompson is literally capable of doing everything defensively at a good to great level already. That gives him a defensive ceiling similar to Herb Jones in that he can be one of the few non-bigs in NBA history capable of anchoring a top defense. He's a point-of-attack defender who can navigate screens and slide his feet with the quickest offensive players, yet is strong enough at 6-foot-6 and 205 lbs to match up with bulkier strength-based creators. He also has quick hands that intersect with elite hand-eye coordination, which leads to a high steal rate while maintaining a decently low foul rate (less than 4 personal fouls per 75 possessions).

This combination of agility, strength, and coordination lead to a perimeter stopper who can match up with someone like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and make life tough on them. But his defensive dominance doesn't end there.

He's also capable of protecting the rim. With his speed, vertical gifts, and a 7-foot wingspan, he's able to cover ground quickly and rotate to affect shots at the rim. He blocked 1.4 shots per 75 possessions and players shot -4.0% worse than expected at the rim with Thompson contesting, although a good chunk of these come with him as the perimeter defender.

His ground coverage also means he's able to closeout to shooters well. And his wingspan plus hand-eye coordination make him a terror in gaps, which manifests in his high steal rate.

In totality, Thompson's intersection of defensive tools and skill put him on a path for greatness on that end. As a point-of-attack defender, off-ball terror, rim protector, and closeout defender who can secure possessions at an elite rate, he can truly do it all and has the potential to be the Detroit Pistons' defensive anchor. It's a lofty ceiling, but one that could put him in company with Jones and Marcus Smart as the recent outlier non-big defenders.

Even if he doesn't reach that 100th percentile outcome, though, he was already a near all-defense caliber player in his rookie season. He's bound to be a perennial NBA All-Defensive Team selection as early as year two or three; if he figures the offense out even slightly, he'll have been a home run selection at fifth overall in the 2023 draft by the Pistons.

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