NBA Draft

Breaking Down New Zealand Breakers' Rayan Rupert

Rayan Rupert is one of the best defensive wing prospects eligible for the 2023 NBA draft. He was key to New Zealand’s success this year. How does he translate to the NBA?

Isaac Condra

Breaking Down New Zealand Breakers' Rayan Rupert
Breaking Down New Zealand Breakers' Rayan Rupert /

Rupert is a projected first round pick that’s looking to continue the streak of NBL’s first round picks. From 2020 to 2022 the NBL has had four first-round picks in which includes LaMelo Ball, RJ Hampton, Josh Giddey, and Ousmane Dieng. The streak will likely continue for the 2023 NBA draft. Let's dive into some of the skills Rupert brings to the table and also a key area of improvement for him.

On-Ball Defense

Rupert has elite upside as an on-ball defender. The combination of his mobility, motor, and 7-foot-3 wingspan allows him to defend wings at a high level. He’s quite switchable as he’ll be able to defend one through four effectively. He loves to pressure ball-handlers as you’ll often see him pressure the ball the length of the floor and does a really good job of taking opposing teams out of their offense.

He’s a pest and is very disruptive. The combination of his length, quick hands, and defensive anticipation allows him to pick the pockets of ball-handlers. Rupert was a major cog in New Zealand having the top defensive team in the NBL. Although he’s a bit undisciplined and tends to pick up silly fouls, you’ll have to allow him to grow through the mistake as his defensive potential is as high as any wing in this draft class.

Off-Ball Defense

Staying on the defensive side of things, Rupert has the upside to be a special defensive playmaker in the NBA. The versatile wing does a phenomenal job of racking up deflections and getting steals in the passing lanes due to his length and defensive anticipation. As an offensive player, it looks to be very annoying playing against the stellar defensive prospect due to how much activity he plays with and how much of a pest he is as a defender.

He’s a good team defender but just like every other 19-year old, he makes his mistakes as a defender. Rupert does a good job of making the proper rotations and is active as a weak side defender. There’s no doubt in my mind that in the NBA, his calling card will be his all-around defensive ability. As one of the youngest players eligible for the draft, he’ll only get better defensively from here which is scary to think about.

Shot-Making Flashes

When watching the film, it’s very clear how raw Rupert is offensively as he’s very early in the development stage. He’s basically all flashes on offense but some of the flashes are very intriguing. With the proper development, there’s a chance he can develop into a third scoring option for an NBA team. He’s comfortable pulling up into his patented mid-range jumper but the results have been very inconsistent.

He already shows good footwork and a high release on his pull-up jumpers and the flashes of difficult shot-making makes him worth betting on. He needs more on-ball reps so maybe having him develop those reps in the G League early on in his career would be most beneficial. He’s extremely inefficient for a wing and is a bit of a project on offense.

Slashing Potential

I have my concerns for Rupert as a finisher through contact but the potential to be a good slasher is there. He’s very comfortable utilizing his solid floater when driving left or right. He has shown to have a soft touch on his floaters with a high release which makes it remotely unblockable given his length.

He has some craft as a finisher but I do wish he played a little more through contact but that’ll hopefully come as he continues to fill out his frame. His two-point efficiency is pretty bad but it’s mostly due to his raw talent and how reliant he is on tough shots. The combination of floater touch, length, and craft should allow Rupert to eventually be a good slasher in the NBA.

Biggest Area Of Improvement

Rupert needs to work on his three-point jumper the most. Throughout his basketball career, he’s shooting below 30% from three. He’s very inconsistent as a shooter and his streakiness is clear as he often has wide left to right misses. I question what his role on offense will be when coming to the NBA because he doesn’t have an elite skill on that end yet.

If he wants to be able to see a ton of minutes on an NBA team, he’ll need to prove he can play off the ball next to ball dominant players. Speeding up his shot release will be step one as it’s way too slow and it allows defenders to contest his shot easier. Step two will be improving his follow through as it’s a big factor on why Rupert's misses are often wide left or right. A team will need to be patient with him on offense, because it’ll be a struggle for him to score when he first enters the league.

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Isaac Condra
ISAAC CONDRA

Isaac is the founder of Global Scouting and an analyst for Draft Digest. He has scouted and covered the NBA draft for the last five years, with experience analyzing players at all levels.

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