Checking in on the Draft Stock of Hugo Gonzalez

Spanish forward Hugo Gonzalez has seen his name in the lottery of many NBA mock drafts and with a solid starting point, he opted to stay with Real Madrid for the 2024-25 season instead of pursuing a club with more playing time or NIL opportunities.

This summer saw international basketball prospects transferring across the globe. Mexican wing Karim Lopez left Joventut Badalona for an NBL Next Stars deal with the New Zealand Breakers. Kasparas Jakucionis and Egor Demin, star youth point guards for Barcelona and Real Madrid respectively, took NIL deals and are playing college basketball in the States. Mouhamed Faye remained with Reggio Emilia and has seen an increase in his role following strong play last season. Nolan Traore chose a similar path with French Club Saint Quentin. 

Then there’s Hugo Gonzalez, the Spanish wing who graduated from Real Madrid’s estimable youth academy and while he also could’ve pursued NIL opportunities, a move to a smaller club for more minutes, or other scenarios to see more playing time he decided to stay with Los Blancos. One of Europe’s best clubs, where he’d have to battle with ex-NBA players like Mario Hezonja, Dzanan Musa, and Gabriel Deck for playing time. 

Through seven games, Gonzalez is losing that battle. He’s made three appearances this season, is averaging seven minutes per game, and has scored a total of four points. No one was expecting a Luka Doncic-sized role for Gonzalez or for him to even start, but a regular spot in the rotation felt like it might be on the cards given the opportunities Eli N’Diaye received from Chus Mateo last season, their inability to replace Guerschon Yabusele, and Hezonja missing time to start the season due to illness. 

Gonzalez hasn’t taken advantage of this opening though, and Real Madrid’s general rocky start to the season hasn’t helped him either. Mateo is coaching for his job currently. Madrid lost openers in both the Liga ACB and EuroLeague season to far inferior opponents - Coruna and Bayern Munich. While Mateo’s previous successes - the 2023 EuroLeague championship, 2024 EuroLeague runner-ups, and 2024 Liga ACB championship - would provide him security in an ideal world, that’s not how Madrid operates. They expect to win, everything, every season. There is no room for failure, and that leaves little room for projects and development.

That leaves players like Gonzalez on the outside looking in. 

This situation does not help Gonzalez’s draft stock. Being able to move up draft boards is largely contingent upon playing well. To play well, you have to play. At the same time, we can’t declaratively say that it’s hurting Gonzalez’s stock either. He featured in the top 10 of ESPN’s top 100 from early October, and there’s been zero notable draft media raising eyebrows at his lack of opportunity. 

There have been no reports about Gonzalez desiring more playing time either or being frustrated at his resignation to a deep bench role. Perhaps, this is what Gonzalez and his agent wanted. He has been a lottery-level lock in this class for over a year and his frame and play style are attractive in the modern NBA. By staying with Real Madrid, he’s practicing against the best players possible every single day and has access to world-class facilities and coaching.

If he doesn’t play and doesn’t get hurt, there’s little reason for anyone to feel differently about him compared to this summer. If he does become a regular rotation player, it would be at minimum a validation of his current standing and potentially raise it. There will likely be some front offices that see Gonzalez's inability to establish a role as a yellow flag, but consequences are far from detrimental, and in the face of minimal opportunity, it looks like he may have picked the best option for his overall draft stock by choosing to stay with Real Madrid.

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