College Stock Watch: Two Premier Bigs Continue to Lack Expected Production

Both Duke’s Dereck Lively and Oregon’s Kel’el Ware have draft stocks that are currently falling relative to preseason expectations.

When evaluating future NBA talent, one of the hardest positions to break down is center. Especially for incoming freshman, there’s always a steep learning curve as they are set to go against other athletes equally as big and strong nearly every single game.

It takes time for these bigs to get integrated into their respective rotations, which makes it even harder to evaluate. Roughly halfway through the college season, we’re starting to see some young centers thrive, while others still need time to get into their groove.

Whose stock has risen? What about fallen?

This week, we look at the draft stock of Dereck Lively and Kel’el Ware based on recent play. Entering this season, they were both projected lottery picks and expected to go one-and-done. 

What about now?

Dereck Lively II (Duke | Center) 

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Stock: Falling

Season Stats: 3.9 PPG | 3.3 RPG | 1.8 BPG

Entering college as the top high school prospect in the country, Lively still hasn’t played as well as expected. The freshman has logged just 16.1 minutes per contest and hasn’t been able to solidify a starting spot.

Relative to what many thought his impact could be at Duke this season, he’s been fairly underwhelming. Lively has only taken 45 shots all season, 41 from inside the arc. He’s missed all four of his 3-point attempts, overall not showcasing his ability to space the floor.

He’s also been a poor free throw in a small sample size, going 8-of-15 from the line this season.

While the offensive impact hasn’t been outstanding, he has shown some of the defensive flashes you’d hope to see. He’s been disruptive both as a rim protector and also in passing lanes.

Lively has notched an 85 DSI according to Cerebro Sports, which is extremely impressive for being a freshman.

So far this season, his freshman teammate Kyle Filipowski has been the better big in the Duke rotation, but there’s plenty of time to turn things around.

While he hasn’t been as good as expected, Lively’s ceiling is still tremendously high. You get a sense that most NBA teams would be more than willing to take him in the first round of the upcoming draft, even if he doesn’t break out in the second half of the college season.

He’s got premier size at 7-foot-1 and 230 pounds, so it’s about improving as the season goes on to ensure he gets selected as high as many thought he could entering this season. For NBA teams drafting, it’s all about the type of player the prospect can turn into, not necessarily just what they look like today.

Kel’el Ware (Center | Oregon)

Chris Pietsch/The Register Guard-USA TODAY NETWORK

Stock: Falling

Season Stats: 8.1 PPG | 4.6 RPG | 1.6 BPG

A top-ten prospect in his high school class, and arguably the second-best center, Ware is another 7-footer that hasn’t quite reached the level we thought he would be at halfway through the season.

He’s primarily come off the bench for the Ducks, averaging just over 20 minutes per contest. Ware is shooting an inefficient 43.6% from the floor as he adjusts to the college game, while knocking down just 28.9% of his triples. However, what’s promising about his perimeter game is that he has shown a willingness to take shots from beyond the arc with 38 attempts to this point.

He's got a 55 3PE according to Cerebro Sports this season, which isn't bad for a center but there's room to improve.

Similar to Lively, Ware is too talented not to get a look in the first round of 2023 NBA Draft despite being somewhat underwhelming to this point. With legitimate defensive upside as a rim protector and good positional touch from the perimeter, the ceiling is extremely high for the Oregon center.

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