Increasing Competition Between Three-Point Shooters Is A Good Thing

The question isn't whether a player can shoot anymore - it's how well he shoots it.

Dec 12, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Tre Johnson (20) passes the ball for an alley-oop over New Mexico State Aggies forward Peter Filipovity (12) during the second half at Moody Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

NBA teams are taking more three-point shots than ever before, dialing up the volume of the long ball to best optimize floor spacing, and to create additional driving lanes.

The spacing evolution, which has been underway for a while now, has led to an outright necessity for prospects to get a handle on their long jumper if they wish to be taken seriously as future NBA players.

As mentioned in previous pieces, the 2025 draft class looks strong and should prove to be a major upgrade compared to the previous one. There are superstar prospects, and you can certainly make a case for several future draftees, that they have the necessary potential to squeeze out 15-year careers, which is more than what you can say for a fair chunk of the players chosen back in June. 

So, back to the long ball.

There are players in this class that don't necessarily have outstanding all-around games, but does have the ability to shoot the heck out of the rock.

Tre Johnson out of Texas is a primary example. The 19-year-old is a shooting guard in the most literal sense imaginable. He's 6-foot-6 and hits 43.3% of his outside shots, while offering virtually little else in terms of a secondary skill level.

Johnson is grabbing just 2.6 rebounds, and dishing 2.2 assists, which makes it almost impossible not to think of an obvious Gary Trent Jr comp for him, as a future NBA player.

Now, it's unfair to say Johnson doesn't have a scoring game outside of the triple. He's averaging 19.9 points, and only 44.7% of his shots are from beyond the arc. However, it's unquestionably that shot that will set him apart, down the line, from other shooting guard prospects if the evaluating factor is offensive diversity.

In other words: That shot carries so much importance in today's league that without it, Johnson probably wouldn't even be slotted in as a first-round prospect. 

The conversation about prospects, I've come to find, has changed. Due to the increasing importance of the long ball, what used to be the usual "can he shoot?" criteria, it's now "how well does he shoot it?".

The shot itself is no longer a swing skill. It's how well a player hits it that is.

In the past, a low-volume 37% shooter from the outside was a perfectly sound option as a draft candidate. Now, the lack of volume will be flagged immediately, and the player's efficiency would be questioned. 

Some argue this is bad for the game. 

Personally, I'd like to make the opposite argument, in that an increased skill level can never be a bad thing.

There was a time back in the 50's and early 60's when some big men could barely break 45% from the field, despite operating just a few feet from the rim. As players began improving their ability to finish around the rim, the sport itself improved. Players got better, and the criteria for making the league got harder.

We saw similar elements with defense, playmaking, driving, mid-range shooting, and now it's the three-point shot that's setting a new bar. 

For the observers, watching a league that's increasingly getting loaded up with more talented players, who raise the bar from what we were previously used to, ultimately means better basketball. 

This isn't to say Tre Johnson's lack of rebounding and playmaking isn't a concern, nor is it to argue that shooting trumps all. But it is an enormously interesting development, in that players can now find themselves so elite at a key skill, that they can wiggle their way into a potential Top 10 ranking. 

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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