Looking in on NBA Potential of the Best College Bigs in the 2023 Class

What are the NBA chances of prospects like Zach Edey, Drew Timme, Hunter Dickinson and Oscar Tshiebwe?

There is no denying how much the game of basketball has changed over the past 10, 20, 30 years and specifically in the NBA.

As we continue to move into an age of positionless lineups, versatility and switching defenses there are certain archetypes of players that are being left behind.

According to the Cerebro Sports database, which will be used for all metrics and stats in the article, there are currently only two players in the NBA shorter than six feet. As players have evolved and the game has changed, teams are now finding their primary creators in much taller, or jumbo, versions (Luka Doncic, Cade Cunnigham).

The same is happening to what many would consider “old school” centers who primarily play with their back to the basket, aren’t super athletic and are unable to truly stretch the floor.

Unlike the point guard position this is not directly linked to height, or size, as much as it is the skillset of the prospect.

Let’s take a look at four of the best, and most impactful, players in college basketball and how this may be impacting their potential NBA futures.

Zach Edey (Center | Purdue)

You can’t help but wonder where the 7-foot-4 Canadian would be projected to go if he was not playing in 2023 but instead in 2003.

The Purdue big man is dominating college basketball to the tune of 22 points, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks a night.

The metrics love him just as much with an overall C-RAM score of 13.1 and three individual metrics that are 90 or higher.

On top of all of that, Edey is doing all of this for quite possibly the best team in the country.

So, why is there 0 first round buzz around this kid? Edey has never attempted a single 3-pointer in his career and is also under 70% from the free throw line, often a measurement used for long term NBA 3-point shooting potential.

There should still be an NBA role that the IMG Academy product is able to carve out for himself as a backup center against specific matchups and playing exclusively in drop coverage but it won’t be near as big had Edey come 20 years earlier.

Drew Timme (Center | Gonzaga)

While Edey is quite possibly the literal biggest man in college basketball, Drew Timme might be the biggest name.

The 6-foot-10 Senior has played in multiple March Madness games for Gonzaga and announced himself to the world with his mustache and post bucket celebrations.

Timme flat out gets things on the court as well as he is also averaging over 20 points per game to go with 7.5 rebounds and 3.3 assists.

Where the problems lie with Timme is he is not near as big as someone like Edey and yet, he still does not possess even average NBA athleticism.

Combine that with a 3-point shooting, and an unimpressive free throw percentage that has actually decreased with each collegiate season and you can see why someone as productive as him is not highly coveted by the current NBA.

Hunter Dickinson (Center | Michigan)

It is possible that the 7-foot-1 DeMatha High School product is the happy medium between Edey and Timme.

While he is not quite as big as the Purdue Boilermaker, he does move better and has shown more shooting touch. And even though Timme may have more finesse to his game, he is much smaller and Dickinson has flashed some nice moves around the rim and passing chops as well.

Dickinson also has impressive metrics in his own right with a C-RAM score of 10.7 and three individual scores over 80. While that may not match Edey’s three over 90, Edey has a 0 for 3-point efficiency (3PE) while Dickinson at least posts a 60.

Dickinson also has the best free throw percentage of the group.

When considering all of the factors it is easy to see how Hunter Dickinson could actually end up being the most successful NBA player in this group, even though there is still no first round consideration.

Oscar Tshiebwe (Center | Kentucky)

Though the production has actually dropped for the senior big man, there is no denying his impact on a college court.

The 6-foot-9 junior from the Congo dominates on the boards averaging over 15 per game last year and 13.4 this season.

Tshiebwe is also able to put the ball in the basket averaging over 15 points per game on 55% from the field.

You just have to wonder how much of that scoring translates and being an undersized center the Wildcat simply does not block that many shots.

The C-RAM score is an impressive 11.0 and he has two individual metrics over 90 but just like Edey he has a 0 3PE and has only attempted a single 3-pointer in his entire career.

With no rim protection, no reason to believe in long term ability to stretch the floor and by far a worse passer than Timme or Dickinson, it will be hard for Tshiebwe to carve out a role at the next level beyond an in energy rebounder.

That is something that teams could be looking for but most likely as a late 2nd round flyer or undrafted free agent.

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