Baylor's VJ Edgecombe Making an Impact Despite Shooting Struggles

In spite of shooting 18% from three early on, Edgecombe's impact defensively and on the glass have kept him top-20 in impact among freshman.

Nov 17, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) grabs a rebound between Tarleton Texans guard Izzy Miles (0) and guard Jordan Mizell (4) during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Coming into the 2025 NBA draft cycle, VJ Edgecombe was considered as one of the strongest shooters in the class thanks to fantastic shooting priors dating back multiple years. From 2022 to 2024, Edgecombe shot 39% on threes and 80% on free-throws, with a solid 35% on non-rim twos to accompany those two indicators.

VJ Edgecombe:

3PT%:
2022-24 HS: 39.9% on 253 att. (HS Line)
2024 FIBA: 28.6% on 21 att. (NBA Line)
Total: 39.1% on 274 att.

FT%:
2022-23 (HS): 71.0% on 62 att.
2023-24 (HS+FIBA): 87.5% on 72 att.
Total: 79.9% on 134 att.

Non-Rim 2s:
Total: 35.4% on 82 att.

— Maurya K. (KR) (@TheFlarescreen) August 2, 2024

All of these were shot at relatively high volumes with a good bit of shot difficulty as well, mixing in a couple of pull-ups and movement shooting into those threes every once in a while. Put everything together and you have an athletic 6-foot-4 wing with very projectable shooting.

So the fact shooting has actually been the weakest component of Edgecombe's repetoire four games into college is something that's been pretty shocking. He's still getting threes up at a good rate — just over eight attempts per 100 possessions. He's just barely been able to convert, shooting an abysmal 17.6% on 18 attempts.

Yet, Edgecombe is still No. 18 among all freshman in the country in box-plus minus and 15th among all high-major freshman. If a player's primary sell was shooting and they're shooting 3-of-24 on all non-rim field-goal attempts, how in the world can they still be so impactful?

For VJ, that's through the one key intersection of skills that's powered so many high-level NBA players: assists, stocks (steals plus blocks), and offensive rebounding. Simply refer to the Tweet below from @100guaranteed or the article written on Noah Penda for an explanation as to why that integration of skills is so important.

the most important precocious skill integration is oreb-assist-stocks

this is the ultimate functional athleticism x feel proxy, a synthesis of skills that exponentially raises ceiling beyond perception of raw box stats/bpm

lots and lots of instructive developmental stories here pic.twitter.com/DDygc9Bg7p

— avinash 💯 (@100guaranteed) July 18, 2024

Edgecombe is posting an absurd 7.0% block rate along with a 4.3% steal rate, 13.4% offensive rebound rate, 19.9% assist rate, and a 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Put the three together plus 7 dunks and 70% at the rim, and you have a 7.7 box-plus minus in four games. Obviously, all of these numbers are bound to vary and some of these rates may not be sustained over the course of a season, but a prospect being this impactful with their bankable trait failing early on is a great sign.

A question that's so often asked with prospects is how they can impact the game when their primary trait fails them. "How does a shooter impact the game when they're having an off-night?" Well, Edgecombe producing like this while shooting so poorly certainly eases scouts' minds as far as that goes.

It's highly unlikely Edgecombe's shot doesn't start falling at some at some point during the season. A shooter with his priors is bound to be a good shooter in college and the NBA, barring something bizzare. How good does he look once some of his jumpers finally do start seeing the bottom of the net? We'll get answers soon, hopefully.

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