NBA Draft: The Good and Bad of Ben Saraf’s First Phase of the Season

Ben Saraf continues to be an offensive leader for Ratiopharm Ulm this season but the burden is coming with highs and lows for the young point guard. His game management is excellent, but holes in his ability to create for himself are popping up.

Ben Saraf / fiba.basketball

Ben Saraf is the type of prospect whose efficiency metrics will consistently deserve a more optimistic view all season. That doesn’t mean you don’t raise your eyebrows at some of the more concerning metrics like you would with all prospects, but remembering his context is important. At only 18 years old, Saraf is the primary offensive orchestrator for Ratiopharm Ulm in EuroCup and Basket Bundesliga play. The only prospect with a truly comparative offensive workload is Nolan Traore. 

With a lot of responsibility on his shoulders, Saraf is thriving in a number of areas. For starters, his 4.4 assists to 2.6 turnovers per game is impressive. You’d like a 2:1 ratio, but the difference is nominal and again, given the age and workload, it’s expected. Saraf is showing he understands the value of possessions, can create for himself, and makes sure his teammates are involved too. That deserves a lot of praise and his draft stock reflects that. 

Saraf’s shooting splits -- and a deeper dive into these numbers -- is where you start to appropriately raise your eyebrows. Saraf is shooting 43 percent from the field, and 32 percent from deep on 47 attempts. Of those 47 threes, nearly half (23) have come out of isolation or pick-and-roll ballhandler sets. He’s converted six of them, that’s 26 percent. That’s not completely awful for a prospect, but it isn’t good either. 

Another reason this is concerning for Saraf is that his ability to create and make his own contested jumpers is likely going to determine his ceiling. He’s a primary ballhandler with decent size, who isn’t particularly explosive. Think about what James Harden looks like these days when his mid-range game and stepback three are cooking, compared to when they aren’t. One player is terrifying, the other looks like a bench guard. For Saraf to reach higher possible outcomes, he needs to make these shots at a decent clip. Overall this season, he’s shooting 33.3 percent on off-the-dribble jumpers per Synergy Sports. 

Around the rim and inside of roughly 12 feet though, tells a different story. At the rim, Saraf is shooting 57 percent on 62 attempts. Traore, for context, is shooting 52 percent on 46 attempts. LaMelo Ball shot 56 percent on 84 attempts in his pre-draft season as an NBL Next Star. Saraf is getting to the rim at a great rate, and finishing too. He’s also shooting 56 percent on 18 short attempts that aren’t at the rim but aren’t quite mid-range either. 

Saraf’s conversion rate in this area, as well as at the rim, is excellent. His lack of explosiveness means he’ll need to be able to convert in these areas with craft and skill to remain a threat as a driver, especially out of the pick-and-roll. He’s already showing he’s got that skillset in his bag. If the long-range off-the-dribble shooting can come along, Saraf has a very bright future as a guard in the NBA. He likely won’t be a plus-defender but his size, and overall instincts on that end, mean he should be easier to hide than other guard prospects. Saraf’s floor is already solid, but the ceiling will be determined by his final nuanced developments this season and beyond.

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