NBA Draft: Freshmen Leaders in Box Plus-Minus

Which freshmen are atop the Box Plus-Minus leaderboard three weeks into the college basketball season?

Nov 11, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins center Derik Queen (25) shoots a free throw during the second half against the Florida A&M Rattlers at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images / Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

We're around three weeks into college basketball season, and there's been a handful of freshmen who have been extremely productive for their teams so far. Below we look at the five freshmen with the highest Box Plus-Minus who are playing at least 40% of their team's minutes:

Egor Demin, BYU: 16.3 Box Plus-Minus

Demin is a 6-foot-9 freshman guard for BYU who's put on an impressive statistical display so far this season. Through four games, Demin is averaging 17 points, 7.5 assists (38.8 assist percentage), 3.5 rebounds, 3.1 stocks (7.7 stock percentage), and two turnovers (14.9 turnover percentage) per game while shooting 86.7% at the rim (15 attempts), 33.3% on non-rim twos (six attempts), 55% from beyond the arc (20 attempts), and 50% from the free throw line (10 attempts).

While it's only been four games and limited total attempts, his productivity, defensive event creation, and shooting efficiencies have been incredible. Demin could work his way into the consensus top-five if his play continues.

John Mobley Jr, Ohio State: 16.2 Box Plus-Minus

Mobley Jr is a 6-foot-1 guard for the Buckeyes that's averaging an impressive 13.5 points, 1.3 assists (14.4 assist percentage), one rebound, 0.6 stocks (2.4 stock percentage), and 0.3 turnovers in only 18.8 minutes per game. Additionally, he's shooting 57.9% from three (19 attempts) and 92.9% from the free throw line (14 attempts). It should be noted that he's only converted two of his seven attempts at the rim (28.6%). While it's a very low sample size, his efficiency at the rim will be something scouts monitor due to him being undersized.

Read More: A Study On Undersized Guards

Mikey Lewis, Saint Mary's: 15.3 Box Plus-Minus

Lewis is a 6-foot-3 guard for the Gaels who was ranked as the No. 126 overall recruit in the 2024 high school class. Through five games, Lewis is averaging 13.8 points, 0.8 assists (nine assist percentage), 2.2 rebounds (a notable 4.8 offensive rebounding percentage), 1.4 stocks (4.9 stock percentage), and 1.6 turnovers per game (13.5 turnover percentage) in 18.8 minutes per game. Additionally, Lewis is converting 50% of his rim attempts (12 attempts), 66.7% of his non-rim twos (six attempts), 52.2% of his threes (23 attempts), and 73.3% of his free throw attempts (15 attempts).

A name that wasn't on many draft boards entering this season, it will be interesting to see how Lewis continues to progress throughout the season. He could be a name to watch as a sleeper in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Derik Queen, Maryland: 12.9 Box Plus-Minus

A highly-touted prospect out of Montverde, Queen is a 6-foot-10 big man who's averaging 15 points, 2.2 assists, 7.2 rebounds (10.3 offensive rebounding percentage, 22.9 defensive rebounding percentage), 2.2 stocks (nine stock percentage), and 1.6 turnovers (11.9 turnover percentage) through five games. He's converting 80.6% of his attempts at the rim but he's 0-13 on non-rim shots. Additionally, Queen is converting 77.3% of his free throws (22 attempts).

At Montverde, Queen offensively had some solid touch, good passing, and was interesting in dribble handoff situations -- which combined his passing, solid driving for his size, and touch at the rim. Defensively, he appeared to be more of a drop coverage big without real rim protection ability but also potential to guard some forwards/4s. He wasn't the quickest defensively and the shooting needed to develop as well. As Maryland continues to play better competition, it will be interesting to dive back into the film and see how this projection and mobility has changed. Regardless, his pure skill has shone through and led to productivity for the Terps.

Will Riley, Illinois: 12.7 Box Plus-Minus

Riley is a 6-foot-8 wing known for his shotmaking ability. He's averaging 17.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.5 turnovers, and 0.8 stocks per game while shooting 89% at the rim (nine attempts), 15.8% on non-rim twos (19 attempts), 70.6% from beyond the arc (17 attempts), and 62% from the free throw line (21 attempts). In terms of advanced metrics, he's recording a 13.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 2.2 stock percentage, and 3.5 turnover percentage. Additionally, he's been unassisted on 52% of his made field goals while assisting on 17.1% of his teammate's made field goals when on the floor. While the non-rim two and free throw percentages will likely need to improve, his overall scoring ability has been on display so far this season.

Read More: The Productive Young Athlete Query (78% of freshmen who hit four specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA)

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