NBA Draft

NBA Draft: Rutgers' Ace Bailey Shows Impressive Upside Despite Questions

Ace Bailey has drawn attention with his elite upside and despite still showing concerns in huge game against Indiana, has comparisons to other intriguing players.

Jace Derryberry

Jan 2, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey (4) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Oumar Ballo (11) defends in the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Jan 2, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey (4) shoots the ball while Indiana Hoosiers center Oumar Ballo (11) defends in the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
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Throughout the season, many questions have been raised about Rutgers’ Ace Bailey and whether his tough shot-making could translate to the NBA. While some of these concerns may be warranted, his overall productivity and consistency should not be overlooked. Bailey brings a rare combination of size, scoring versatility and two-way potential that would put him in contention for the No. 1 selection in many draft classes. As he has shined in several games this year, the flashes of his potential have been prominent, with his Big Ten opener against Indiana offering perhaps the clearest view of his upside yet.

Let’s take a closer look at Bailey’s impressive play so far this season, with a particular focus on his recent performance against Indiana and compare him to similar prospects from the past few years.

Through his first 12 games of the year, Bailey has averaged 19.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, one steal and 1.3 blocks while shooting 48.5% from the field, 35.2% from three and 57.8% from the free-throw line. His ability to knock down jumpers over traffic and close contests has been particularly impressive, though it also raises questions about his shot selection. Additionally, Bailey has shown more on-ball creativity than he is typically credited for and has appeared increasingly comfortable attacking off the dribble as the season progresses. In the lane, he has been effective on both ends—elevating for dunks and finishing with soft touch on offense while contesting shots and grabbing rebounds on defense.

The most significant concern in Bailey’s game is his lack of playmaking for others. While his low assist totals stand out, the apparent unwillingness to keep the ball moving may be the bigger issue. Bailey has not recorded more than two assists in any game this season and has posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio in seven of his 12 games. Although Dylan Harper, a fellow five-star freshman, is clearly the primary playmaker for Rutgers, Bailey has struggled to contribute in this area even when given opportunities, as evidenced by his recent assist-less performance in Harper’s absence. Nevertheless, his scoring in that game was exceptional.

In his Big Ten opener on Jan. 2, Bailey was unstoppable despite Rutgers falling to Indiana, 84-74. He scored a career-high 39 points on 16-of-29 shooting from the field, including 4-of-8 from three-point range and 3-of-8 from the free-throw line. Bailey regularly hit pull-up jumpers from deep and midrange while showcasing strong body control after absorbing contact near the rim. His ability to create space out of the triple-threat remained sharp, but his improved aggression and lower driving stance made his attacking off the dribble especially effective. Beyond scoring, Bailey contributed eight rebounds, one steal and a career-high four blocks, putting his elite upside on full display despite the loss.

When comparing Bailey to similar prospects, three names frequently come up: Brandon Miller, Jabari Smith Jr. and Michael Porter Jr. The comparison to Miller stems from their ability to produce big scoring nights with positional size and slim frames. Both players share a score-first mentality, though Miller had slightly better assist numbers due to being surrounded by more talent at Alabama. Bailey’s shot selection mirrors that of Miller in many ways. Jabari Smith Jr. offers another parallel, particularly in terms of tough shot-making and defensive upside, though Bailey appears to have greater on-ball creativity, which could help him translate his scoring more quickly. Lastly, Michael Porter Jr. serves as a stylistic comparison for Bailey at the next level. Known for his contested jump shot-making ability, Porter Jr. uses quick elevation and a high release to convert difficult shots—a skill Bailey also demonstrates. Like Porter Jr. in college, Bailey focuses heavily on using his size advantage to hit jumpers, though his upside suggests he could eventually take on a more dynamic role.

Ace Bailey’s early-season performances, especially his standout game against Indiana, have reinforced his status as one of the most intriguing prospects in college basketball. While there are areas of his game that need development—particularly in playmaking—his scoring prowess, positional versatility and defensive potential are undeniable. If Bailey can continue to refine his decision-making and expand his offensive repertoire, he has the tools to emerge as a top-tier NBA talent. As the season unfolds, he will have the opportunity to solidify his case as one of the best players in the upcoming draft class.

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Jace Derryberry
JACE DERRYBERRY

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