NBA Draft: The Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query

63% of freshmen who meet six specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the league. Who are the current players that qualify?

Connecticut Huskies guard Stephon Castle (5) celebrates after a foul call during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Championship against the Purdue Boilermakers, Monday, April 8, 2024, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY

The new era of the NBA has seemingly emphasized both outside shooting and positional size. Most competitive teams are now filled with taller wings or forwards who can space the floor and guard multiple positions defensively. The NBA's movement towards taller, longer players has also led to the decline of undersized guards sticking in the NBA.

While we've dove into three queries that emphasize different levels of production based on college year, as shown through the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query, Productive Sophomore Query (PSQ), and Productive Junior Query (PJQ), the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query dives into the combination of size and potential as a shooter in predicting NBA outcomes. The title itself is also a play on exchange-traded funds, which are also known as ETFs in the financial world and are one of the most common ways for people to invest their money. Similarly, perhaps the ETF query can be a reason for a team to invest in a prospect who meets the necessary criteria.

Introduction

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.

There were 70 freshmen throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, were at least 6-foot-6, had a free throw percentage of at least 75%, had at least 50 free throw attempts, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +3, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 62.9% (44/70) of those freshmen played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

Why are each of these criteria important?

A freshman is the first year of a player at a college or university, indicating a young age of around 18 years old. Minutes Percentage is the share of the team’s total minutes that a prospect plays in. These two criteria alone help narrow prospects down into college basketball players that are young, but are already trusted by their college coach and talented enough to play significant (defined here as ≥40% of the team’s total) minutes.

The next indicator for the prospect is having a free throw percentage of at least 75%, which indicates potential as a shooter at the next level. In fact, a player's college free throw percentage is actually a better indicator of potential as an NBA shooter than their college three point percentage. Additionally, all prospects included in the study shot at least 50 free throw attempts in their freshman season, reducing the chance for error within the free throw shooting indicator.

Since size and, more specifically, height is becoming more important to sticking in the NBA, we looked at players who are at least 6-foot-6. This narrows it down to freshmen being trusted to play a significant amount of their team's minutes, have potential as a shooter in the NBA, and have significant size at 6-foot-6. Finally, one of the last two indicators is a Box Plus-Minus of at least +3, used to ensure that the prospects are impacting the college game to a baseline level over a replacement player. The last indicator is a minimum dunk threshold of four, used to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric.

Therefore, players who meet the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) query are freshmen who are trusted to play at least 40% of their team's minutes, are impacting the game at a minimum level (+3 Box Plus-Minus), have positional size of at least 6-foot-6, have positive shooting indicators (converting at least 75% from the line on at least 50 attempts that season), and also meet the four-dunk athletic threshold.

Which Players Have "Stuck" in the Past?

Below are the players who met the Efficient Tall Shooter query from 2010-2021 and ended up "sticking" in the NBA:

2010: Alec Burks and Khris Middleton

2011: Tobias Harris, Harrison Barnes, Allen Crabbe, and Joe Harris

2012: Cody Zeller and Damion Lee

2013: Justin Anderson and Nik Stauskas

2014: Andrew Wiggins

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, and Pascal Siakam

2016: Mikal Bridges

2017: Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, Jonathan Isaac, and Amir Coffey

2018: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., De'Andre Hunter, Jalen McDaniels, Gary Trent Jr., Naji Marshall, Kevin Knox, and Oshae Brissett

2019: Cam Reddish, Nassir Little, and Charles Bassey

2020: Franz Wagner, Patrick Williams, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Zeke Nnaji, Isaiah Stewart, Josh Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Julian Champagnie, and Justin Champagnie

2021: Cade Cunningham, Keegan Murray, Benndict Mathurin, and Moses Moody

*Jontay Porter (2018), Terrance Shannon Jr (2020), and Dillon Jones (2021) all met the criteria but were not included in the study due to uncertainty regarding their NBA futures (such as being a current prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft or an off-court issue cutting their career short)

Who met the criteria during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons that we should keep our eyes on?

2022

Four players met the criteria in 2022: Jabari Smith, AJ Griffin, Tyson Degenhart, and Tucker DeVries.

Jabari Smith ended up being the third overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and has been an important part of the Rockets' resurgence. The 6-foot-11 forward has averaged 31.5 minutes per game in his first two seasons and has appeared in 155 games for the Rockets. He averaged 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 0.7 steals. and shot 36.3% from three on five attempts per game this past season.

AJ Griffin was drafted with the 16th pick by the Atlanta Hawks in the 2022 NBA Draft. Coming into the NBA, Griffin had a significant injury history that appears to have unfortunately impacted his first two years in the NBA thus far as well. After appearing in 72 games for the Hawks in his rookie season while averaging 19.5 minutes per game and shooting 39% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game, injuries limited Griffin to only 20 games this past season with the Hawks. An impactful player when healthy, look for Griffin to be a key part of the Hawks' rotation moving forward.

Tyson Degenhart has been an impactful player over his three seasons at Boise State. The 6-foot-7, 232-pound wing averaged 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 62.3% at the rim, 39.1% on non-rim twos, 32.3% from three, and 79.1% from the free throw line. Degenhart could be someone to keep an eye on for the 2025 NBA Draft.

Tucker DeVries was a junior for the Drake Bulldogs this season and helped lead them to the NCAA tournament. The 6-foot-7 guard averaged 21.6 points, 3.7 assists, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. He was tasked with creating a heavy proportion of Drake's offense, as he was unassisted on 55.5% of his made field goals while also assisting 21.2% of his opponent's made field goals when he's on the floor.

Additionally, DeVries was efficient as both a pick-and-roll ball handler and off of handoffs. He and his father are both taking their talents to West Virginia, as his father Darian DeVries will be the new Head Coach at West Virginia after having the same role at Drake. DeVries is a legitimate prospect to watch for in 2025.

2023

Nine players met the criteria in 2023: Brandon Miller, Brice Sensabaugh, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick, Kyle Filipowski, Julian Phillips, Jett Howard, Mark Mitchell, and Andrew Rohde.

Miller, Sansabaugh, Hendricks, and Dick, and Howard were all first round picks in the 2023 NBA Draft while Phillips was selected in the second round.

Kyle Filipowski is an interesting prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft. Offensively, he offers some level of an interesting dribble-pass-shoot archetype for a 7-footer. He has the potential to be used in the short roll as well, despite him not beiing utilized much in this way at Duke. Defensively, Filipowski improved his lateral quickness this past season and has potential as a show coverage big while he could still improve his foot speed to be used more in drop.

Kyle Filipowski Offensive Scouting Report

Kyle Filipowski Defensive Scouting Report

Both Mark Mitchell and Andrew Rohde have been impactful at the college level. Mitchell will transfer to Missouri after two seasons at Duke while Rohde will be entering his junior season at Virginia after spending his freshman year at St. Thomas.

Who qualified from the 2023-2024 season?

Four players qualified for the Efficient Tall Freshman query in 2024: Stephon Castle, Johnny Furphy, Kwame Evans Jr, and Milan Momcilovic.

Castle was a freshman on the UConn championship team this past season and averaged 11 points, three assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 4.7 rebounds while converting 63% of his attempts at the rim (149 attempts), 34.8% of his non-rim twos (66 attempts), but only 26% of his catch-and-shoot threes (57 attempts). He also recorded a 7.8 offensive rebounding percentage, 18.4 assist percentage, and 3.9 stock percentage.

Lastly, Castle was in the 77th percentile in Pick-and-Roll Ball-Handler Plus Passes possessions. Illustrated through this query requiring a 75 free throw percentage or higher, Castle recorded a 75.5 FT% on 110 attempts this past season and may have more shooting potential than he showed at UConn. He's currently a projected top ten pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

Furphy was a 6-foot-9 freshman for the Kansas Jayhawks this past season that had an up-and-down but overall efficient year. He averaged nine points, five rebounds, 1.2 stocks, and one assist per game while shooting 76.5% from the free throw line and 35.2% from three on 3.8 attempts per game. The Australian native is a projected first round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

Evans Jr was a 6-foot-9 freshman for Oregon this past season that averaged 7.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and one block per game. He showed some versatility defensively this past season as well as potential as a long-term shooter, indicated by both his 79.5 FT% and unguarded catch-and-shoot numbers. Evans Jr was also the 15th-most productive freshmen this past season and is set to be drafted in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Lastly, Milan Momcilovic is a 6-foot-8 wing for Iowa State that averaged 10.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and almost one stock per game while shooting 36% from three on nine three-point attempts per 100 possessions and 45.6% on non-rim twos (149 attempts). He's a legitimate prospect that see his name called in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Efficient Tall Freshman query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the seven criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick who's met the Efficient Tall Freshman query, it may be a sense of comfort that 63% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account, as only 27% of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the ETF query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

All play-by-play data is courtesy of Synergy Sports.

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