NBA Draft: The Polarity of Duke's Kon Knueppel

Kon Knueppel is one of the 2025 draft's best shooters who also has fantastic ballhandling and passing skill, yet, has red flags that have historically made players struggle in the NBA.

Dec 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Kon Knueppel (7) drives th ball towards the basket against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Duke's Kon Knueppel is one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2025 NBA draft.

On one hand, he's atop the list of purest shooters you'll ever see with your own two eyes. Yes, he's shot just 34% from three so far this season, but that isn't representative of the shooter that he is. When combining his current college sample with his EYBL numbers since 2020, Knueppel is shooting 40.6% on threes along with 83.9% at the line and and 49.1% on non-rim twos. He's currently shooting 95% on free throws and a hair under 47% on non-rim twos at Duke, still showcasing his fantastic shooting touch despite struggles from three to begin the season.

Knueppel is also a great ballhandler with a supremely tight handle, whether he's handling pick-and-rolls or attacking closeouts. He has great pace as a ballhandler, with funky dribble cadences that create openings of space for him to leverage his touch and score, all while boasting a sub-10% turnover rate. He pairs this turnover-averse self-creation with superb feel as well, posting a near-19% assist rate with a 3.4 assist-to-turnover rate.

Here lies a 6-foot-5, 217 lbs low-turnover, dribble/pass/shoot wing who can handle pick-and-rolls. That's a player every single team in the league covets, so what could hold him back from being a lottery pick?

Knueppel came into Duke with major athletic concerns, and he certainly hasn't made NBA decision-makers feel any better in his time at college. He's an extremely subpar NBA athlete, with all-time poor athletic and physical indicators as of right now.

He currently has a 2.6% offensive rebound rate, 0.3% block rate, and 1.7% steal rate, while shooting under 60% at the rim and throwing down one dunk in 12 games. Simply put, he isn't good laterally (steals) nor vertically (offensive rebounds, blocks, dunks), and doesn't have a lengthy wingspan to offset either. The integration of those three makes for a really difficult translation to the NBA.

This Bart Torvik query shows drafted NCAA players since 2008 with <3% offensive rebound, <2% steal, <1% block, and <5 dunks made, sorted by free-throw rate. Free-throw rate is usually some combination of craft, feel, physicality, and athleticism. The success rate among those with a sub-30 free-throw rate itself is rare, and almost everyone below that mark who ended up finding NBA success went back to college for one or more years before their draft year.

Knueppel currently holds an ashtonisngly low 17.8 free-throw rate. If you were add a sub-20 free-throw rate filter to the query above, you'd be left with nine players: Kyle Guy, Andrew Goudelock, Marcus Sasser, David Johnson, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Antonio Reeves, Malachi Flynn, and Tre Mann. Guy and Hood-Shifino are the only players there to get drafted the same year they put up that statline, while Sasser and Mann are the only ones to break the 50th percentile in estimated plus-minus.

Knueppel will either have to get significantly better as an athlete, or just posses such an outlier intersection of shooting and ballhandling to where his lottery-case is undeniable. The latter is unlikely, so a lot of his NBA success will be driven by the strides he can make as an athlete. If he can make those strides, he can provide tons of value as a high-volume movement shooter with creation in spades.

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