NBA Draft: The Productive Junior Query

Around 66% of college basketball players who meet four specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the league. Who are the current players that qualify?

Mar 8, 2024; Dayton, Ohio, USA; Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II (15) celebrates after defeating the Virginia Commonwealth Rams in overtime at University of Dayton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Lunsford-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Lunsford-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2024 NBA Draft a little over a month away, everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or feel more certain about players in a class that seems to be filled with uncertainty.

In order to do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. Back in April, we released a post that reviewed which players are currently meeting the threshold for the Productive Young Athlete query, which has a "stick" rate of 78% and focuses on freshmen. Earlier this month, this was built upon by discussing t Productive Sophomore Query, which has a 70% "stick" rate and applies similar criteria to sophomores instead of freshmen.

With increased uncertainty regarding "stick" rate amongst older prospects, such as upperclassmen, the Productive Junior Query (PJQ) applies similar criteria to juniors instead of sophomore or freshmen.

Introduction

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.

There were 38 juniors throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 65.79% (25/38) of those juniors played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

The purpose of this query is to find juniors with production so impactful that it has the potential to reliably predict NBA talent. Juniors who meet this criteria are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.

Which Players Have "Stuck" in the Past?

Below are the players who met the Productive Junior Query from 2010-2021 and ended up "sticking" in the NBA:

2010: Evan Turner, Jon Leuer, and James Anderson

2011: Draymond Green

2012: C.J. McCollum

2013: Victor Oladipo, Kelly Olynyk, Gorgui Dieng, and Doug McDermott

2014: Delon Wright and Frank Kaminsky

2015: Taurean Prince, Willie Cauley-Stein, Anthony Gill, Justin Anderson, and Gary Payton II

2016: No player who met the criteria "stuck" in the NBA (one player qualified).

2017: No player who met the criteria "stuck" in the NBA (one player qualified).

2018: Mikal Brides, Dean Wade, and Keita Bates-Diop

2019: Brandon Clarke and Grant Williams

2020: Xavier Tillman and Luka Garza

2021: Neemias Queta and Jared Butler

Who met the criteria during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons that we should keep our eyes on?

2021-22 Season

Four players met the criteria in 2021: Oscar Tshiebwe, David Roddy, E.J. Liddell, and Orlando Robinson.

Oscar Tshiebwe has played only 42 minutes for the Pacers this season, but has been dominant in the G League. He averaged 16.4 points and 16.1 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game this season for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants. The former Kentucky big man was named to the NBA G League All-Rookie Team this past April.

Roddy averaged 6.7 points per game in 18 minutes per game for the Grizzlies during his rookie season, then averaged 23 minutes and 8.4 points per game this past season for the Grizzlies before being traded to the Phoenix Suns in February. With more time and adjustment, Roddy figures to contribute more to the Suns' gameplan next season.

Liddell was drafted with the 41st pick in the 2022 NBA Draft by the New Orleans Pelicans, but unfortunately suffered a torn ACL during a Summer League game prior to his rookie year. Liddell only played 23 minutes for the Pelicans in his second year, but averaged 17.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, and 0.6 steals on over 50% from the field in 26 G League games.

Robinson has averaged 10.9 minutes per game and appeared in 67 games for the Miami Heat over his first two years in the league. The 7-footer out of Fresno State also appeared in nine G League games this past season, averaging around 24 points, 12 rebounds, two assists, one steal, and two blocks per game.

2022-23 Season

Five players met the criteria in 2022: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Zach Edey, Jaylen Clark, Adama Sanogo, and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

To start, Jackson-Davis was an important part of the Warriors' rotation this season. He appeared in 68 games for Golden State, starting 16 of those games, and averaging 16.6 minutes per game played. Edey won the Naismith award for the second year in a row and led the Purdue Boilermakers to the championship game. He's currently projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft. It should be noted that he also met the criteria for the Productive Sophomore Query during the 2021-22 season, which has a 70% "stick" rate.

After being drafted by the Minnesota Timberwolves with the 53rd pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Clark has not yet appeared in an NBA game after unfortunately tearing his achilles at the end of the UCLA season.

Sanogo appeared in nine games for the Bulls this season and averaged 7.3 minutes per game in those appearances. The former UConn big also played in 29 games for the Windy City Bulls, averaging 30.3 minutes, 22 points, 12.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game while shooting 61.5% from the field.

Lastly, after testing the waters for this upcoming draft, Ryan Kalkbrenner ultimately decided to return to Creighton for his fifth season. He averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game this past season for the Bluejays. He also qualified for the Productive Sophomore Query last season, which has a 70% "stick" rate.

Who qualified in the 2023-2024 season?

Three players qualified for the Productive Junior Query this past season: DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter, and Jonathan Mogbo.

Holmes had a stellar junior season for Dayton, averaging 20 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.1 blocks per game. Perhaps most importantly, the Dayton big man's ability to stretch the floor took a leap this past season. He went from converting 31.6% of his threes (19 attempts) and 67% of his free throw attempts his sophomore season to shooting 71.3% from the free throw line and 38.6% from deep this season on 83 attempts. Holmes II also qualified for the Productive Young Athlete query his freshman season, which has a 78% "stick" rate. Holmes is currently projected as a late second round pick, but has as good of a chance as anyone to outperform his draft stock.

Carter is a 6-foot-3 guard that averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 assists (23.3 assist percentage), 8.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals (2.9 steal percentage), and one block per game (2.8 block percentage) this past season for Providence. He converted 65.2% of his attempts at the rim (181 attempts), 37.7% of his threes (223 attempts), and 75% of his attempts at the free throw line this past season. Lastly, Carter was unassisted on an impressive 58% of his made field goals this season. He's currently projected to be selected between picks 15 and 20.

Lastly, Mogbo is a 6-foot-7 big that averaged 14.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game this past season at San Francisco. He also recorded a 14.5 offensive rebounding percentage, 29.3 defensive rebounding percentage, 24.5 assist percentage, 3.2 steal percentage, and 3.5 block percentage. Lastly, Mogbo has converted 74.1% of his attempts at the rim this season and 31.3% on non-rim twos. He's currently a projected late second round pick.

A player who hit the Productive Junior Query that is still in college to keep an eye on: Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Players in this draft class who have hit the Productive Junior Query in the past: Zach Edey, DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter, and Jonathan Mogbo.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Productive Junior Query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick (or even a first round pick in Devin Carter's case) who's met the Productive Junior Query, it may be a sense of comfort that 66% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account, as only 27% of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PJQ query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

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