Overseas Round-Up: Early-Season Shooting Developments

An early-season update on Rayan Rupert and Juan Nuñez, two prospects whose draft stock might hinge on their potential improvement as shooters.

Rayan Rupert and Juan Nuñez were two players that I highlighted as “Projected Draft Picks” among the sixty-plus players that I included in my pre-season international "Players to Watch" series. The common thread between the two of them were the serious question marks they had when it came to their projection as shooters at the next level.

As both prospects pass the ten-game mark in their 2022-23 campaign, I’m following up on their development as shooters in the early season, and the effect it might have on their draft stock going forward.

Rayan Rupert has shot 38.2% from beyond the arc so far this season for the New Zealand Breakers, which is an encouraging mark, however this percentage is carried by his incredible pre-season numbers where he shot 10-for-16 from 3-point range. This means that through nine games of the NBL regular season, Rupert only converted on four of his twenty 3 point attempts.

After watching every single one of his jumpshot attempts during the season, however, I came away impressed with Rupert due to several aspects. The first one being the shot mechanics, Rupert has tightened up his shooting motion to an impressive degree, now being fairly consistent and repeatable, especially in the upper body. 

The fact that the shot looks similar, if not identical, from attempt to attempt, indicates that a lot of work has gone into “fixing” the jumpshot and it’s clear in the results.

If there’s anything left to clean up in terms of mechanics, it might be the ability to keep his balance. Some of his worst misses come when he’s not able to minimize his left-to-right movement as he jumps, which likely affects his balance and overall left/right aim as a shooter.

One detail I've noticed from watching Rayan Rupert's jumpshot is that at times he jumps to the side, generally to his right. The more exaggerated this jump is, the more he misses left/right. pic.twitter.com/dk5qf633du

— Ignacio Rissotto (@eyreball) November 8, 2022

Considering my pre-season assessment of Rupert’s jumper, in which airballs and shots that missed the rim were common occurrences, Rupert has improved exponentially in this area. Even if the results at the NBL regular season pale in comparison with what he showed in preseason, part of that can be attributed to his limited minutes not allowing him to get into a rhythm. When you see the mechanics and also take into account his impressive 83.3% mark from the free throw line, it’s easy to envision Rupert becoming at least an average shooter off the catch at the NBA level eventually.

After showing signs of progress this past summer at the FIBA U20 European Championships, where he shot 42.9% from beyond the arc, albeit on a small, 14-attempt sample size, Juan Nuñez has been struggling so far, shooting just 11.8% from three across 11 games this season for Ratiopharm Ulm.

While the majority of these attempts are tough, off-the-dribble attempts which are naturally lower-percentage shots, looking at the game tape, it seems that Nuñez will still need a lot of improvement in order to become at least an average shooter at the next level. What’s striking is the variance between shots and the lack of consistency in his shooting motion.

While some aspects could be corrected in time, like being more consistent when holding his followthrough, the biggest aspect to work on might be his energy transfer from his lower to his upper body. His makes and better-looking misses seem to come when Nuñez is able to shoot in-rhythm, and starts his upward motion before fully setting his feet.

When he delays the start of his upward motion, Nuñez's shot looks disjointed.

And these are moments where he starts bringing the ball up only after fully setting his feet. Most of the misses are long/short, which leads me to think that the problem is his energy transfer from lower to upper body which makes the shot look slightly fragmented. pic.twitter.com/8NEtOeWelB

— Ignacio Rissotto (@eyreball) November 8, 2022

In my Bundesliga preview I called Nuñez one of the best passers to come out of the international game in the past few years and that evaluation stands, as Nuñez shows an impressive level of creativity and vision to find teammates when he has the ball in his hands.

The questions with Nuñez, however, are not about his skills as a passer, but about how his lack of an elite scoring profile can limit the impact of his playmaking for others at the NBA level, as very few offensive initiators at the NBA level (if any) are able to contribute offensively without a jumpshot.

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