What is Patrick Baldwin Jr.'s Value To The Warriors?

Examining the rookie's impact on the defending champions.

Coming off their fourth championship in the last decade, this off-season the Golden State Warriors decided to continue their “two timelines” approach by selecting Patrick Baldwin Jr. with the No. 28 pick in the draft. He joined a young core of Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman, and Moses Moody, now tasked with the responsibility to fill the shoes of departed veterans such as Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II.

For the majority of the season, Baldwin Jr. has toggled between the Santa Cruz Warriors of the G League and an end-of-bench role with Golden State. However, on Wednesday night, he made his presence felt for the first time in the NBA. In the Dubs’ five-point victory over the Jazz, he tallied 11 points in over 12 minutes of playing time. These numbers aren’t imposing, but he had a tangible impact on the game and displayed how this impact can broaden down the road.

Golden State’s revolutionary offense has different demands than those of any other team. They utilize a few staple actions, then expect their players to read and react to the defense to get a bucket. When done right, this results in beautiful madness: constant movement and screening rewarded by pristine decision-making. Baldwin Jr.'s skillset, headlined by elite movement shooting in a 6-foot-9, 220-pound frame soundly fits into this system.

In the short time he’s been on an NBA court, Baldwin Jr. has shot nearly 45% from deep on an astounding 17 attempts per 100 possessions. With his height, he can get this shot up over anybody. He’s making full use of this marksmanship as a popper in screening actions. Not only does this get him 3-point opportunities, but it allows teammates to play off of his gravity when defenders overplay his threat in a similar way to the Splash Brothers or Jordan Poole.

Not all of these looks fall, but his utility as a popper is explicit in the clips below.

As alluded to earlier, Golden State’s offense is built on the ability to read and react, and Baldwin Jr. excels at doing so as a screener. He has a great feel of when to roll or slip a screen rather than popping. Below he slips the screen early to beat the switching defense, but the pass can’t quite get through.

When he’s playing without the ball, and not involved in an action, he knows what to do offensively. He’s a shrewd mover who understands when to drift into open space to get open for a shot or simply enhance spacing. Baldwin Jr. also has a knack for timely cuts to the rim, another point of emphasis in The Bay.

He’s no Sleepy Floyd, but the Warriors’ rookie is still more than capable of making the right pass to connect the offense.

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole stretch defenses to the max with their historic shooting ability, giving the other Warriors heaps of space to toy with. To take the next step offensively, Baldwin Jr. needs to improve his ability to take advantage of this space as a scorer. At this point, he frequently declines to attack the open area, and instead resorts to retrograding passes. When he does decide to attack, though, the results aren’t great.

Baldwin Jr. also exhibits his high feel for the game on the defensive side of the ball. Philosophically, Golden State has always preferred to switch everything then rely on exemplary execution if help defense is sent, and he’s already doing his part. He understands when to rotate, and regularly fulfills his ever-shifting responsibilities.

Relatively nondescript Patrick Baldwin Jr. sequence compared to his more notable highlights. But he seems to already have a good grasp of team-defense concepts.

He knows his role as the "fill" man when Donte DiVincenzo "traps the box" and Ty Jerome "sinks" in to help the helper. pic.twitter.com/DirUcGPVBk

— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) December 29, 2022

Still, he needs to be more of a presence on defense. His rim contests can be flat-out bad, and he can’t always stay with his man on switches. It can be difficult given his lack of athleticism, but using his size to make improvements in these areas will be vital for his role to expand.

In just his rookie season, Baldwin Jr. is fitting into the system and bringing unique value to the Warriors with both his shooting and understanding of the game on both ends. With this foundation already in place so early in his time in Golden State, it’s easy to visualize him developing into a big-time contributor to the team in the near future.

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