Players to Monitor Who Have Hit Notable Statistical Thresholds

Many potential prospects who have previously hit notable statistical thresholds are still in college. Who are some prospects to monitor for this upcoming season?

Mar 21, 2024; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Oregon Ducks forward Kwame Evans Jr. (10) drives to the basket against South Carolina Gamecocks forward Collin Murray-Boyles (30) during the second half in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Whether it's the Productive Young Athlete Query (PYA), the Productive Sophomore Query (PSQ), the Productive Junior Query (PJQ), the Efficient Tall Freshman Query (ETF), or even the study on undersized guards, we've attempted to use data to discover NBA prospects that may be going under the radar in college.

While many players who have previously met the necessary criteria of many of these studies have already been drafted or are currently in the league, below we take a look at some players to monitor who are still in college and could be 2025 NBA Draft prospects.

Productive Young Athlete Query (PYA)

Since 2008, 78% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 76 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2019 NBA Drafts, 59 of them went on to play five-plus seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league.

Three freshmen met the criteria in the 2023-24 college season, and one of them was drafted third overall in the 2024 NBA Draft: Reed Sheppard. The other two players, however, are still in college: Collin Murray-Boyles and JT Toppin.

Murray-Boyles is a 6-foot-7, 230-pound forward/big on South Carolina who averaged 10.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, one steal, and one block per game while recording an offensive rebounding percentage of 12, an assist percentage of 17.2, a 2.8 steal percentage, and a 4.6 block percentage this past season as a freshman. Additionally, Murray-Boyles finished 67.6% of his attempts at the rim (145 attempts) and 41.3% of his non-rim twos (46 attempts). His free throw percentage of 66.7% (87 attempts) is not the strongest number, but is an adequate start and indicates some potential. Murray-Boyles only attempted five threes this season in total. The upcoming South Carolina sophomore has the potential to be a first round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

JT Toppin was a 6-foot-9, 210-pound forward for the New Mexico Lobos last season who transferred to Texas Tech for this upcoming season. He averaged 12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game while recording a 14.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 22.1 defensive rebounding percentage, 2.2 steal percentage, and 7.6 block percentage. He finished 68.9% of his attempts at the rim (209 attempts) and 53.8% of his non-rim twos (65 attempts) this past season while also shooting 34.4% from three (only 32 attempts). While the attempts are low and the free throw percentage would need to improve to represent a positive shooting indicator (56.5%), Toppin's willingness to attempt them is notable. He has the potential to work his way into the 2025 NBA Draft conversation this upcoming season.

With 78% of players who meet the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query sticking in the NBA, both Collin Murray-Boyles and JT Toppin are players to watch for this upcoming season.

Productive Sophomore Query (PSQ)

There were 47 sophomores throughout the 11 college basketball seasons from 2010-2020 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +9, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 70.21% (33/47) of those sophomores played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

Two players who met the criteria in 2022 are still in college: Hunter Dickinson and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Dickinson played three seasons at Michigan before transferring to Kansas, where he played his senior season last year. He decided to return to Kansas for his fifth year of eligibility and, while his projection to the NBA is a difficult one as more of a traditional offensive big, Dickinson is one of the most productive players in college basketball.

Kalkbrenner originally entered the 2024 NBA Draft before ultimately deciding to return to Creighton for his fifth season. Another productive college big, Kalkbrenner provides some rim protection and is effective in deeper drop coverage. He also averaged 17.3 points and 7.6 rebounds per game last season. The Creighton big has the potential to land a two-way contract next year if he can improve his mobility defensively.

Productive Junior Query (PJQ)

There were 38 juniors throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 65.79% (25/38) of those juniors played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

The only player who met the Productive Junior Query who is still in college is Ryan Kalkbrenner. As mentioned above, Kalkbrenner is in his fifth season at Creighton. His ability to meet the Productive Sophomore Query and then meet the Productive Junior Query is an excellent sign of his continued growth at the college level and highlights his overall impressive production over the past three seasons.

Efficient Tall Freshman Query (ETF)

There were 70 freshmen throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, were at least 6-foot-6, had a free throw percentage of at least 75%, had at least 50 free throw attempts, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +3, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 62.9% (44/70) of those freshmen played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

There are six players who have met the ETF Query in the past who remain in college: Tyson Degenhart, Tucker DeVries, Mark Mitchell, Andrew Rohde, Kwame Evans Jr, and Milan Momcilovic.

In the 2021-22 season, four players met the criteria: Jabari Smith Jr, AJ Griffin, Tyson Degenhart, and Tucker DeVries. While Smith Jr and AJ Griffin are already in the NBA, Degenhart and DeVries have continued to show flashes of NBA potential in college.

Tyson Degenhart has been an impactful player over his three seasons at Boise State. The 6-foot-7, 232-pound wing averaged 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 62.3% at the rim, 39.1% on non-rim twos, 32.3% from three, and 79.1% from the free throw line. Degenhart could be someone to keep an eye on for the 2025 NBA Draft.

Tucker DeVries was a junior for the Drake Bulldogs this past season and helped lead them to the NCAA tournament. The 6-foot-7 guard averaged 21.6 points, 3.7 assists, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. He was tasked with creating a heavy proportion of Drake's offense, as he was unassisted on 55.5% of his made field goals while also assisting 21.2% of his opponent's made field goals when he's on the floor.

Additionally, DeVries was efficient as both a pick-and-roll ball handler and off of handoffs. He and his father are both taking their talents to West Virginia, as his father Darian DeVries will be the new Head Coach at West Virginia after having the same role at Drake. DeVries has a real chance to land a two-way contract in 2025.

In the 2022-23 season, nine players met the criteria of the Efficient Tall Freshman Query: Brandon Miller, Brice Sensabaugh, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick, Kyle Filipowski, Julian Phillips, Jett Howard, Mark Mitchell, and Andrew Rohde.

While seven of the nine players above were drafted, Mitchell and Rohde remain in college where they've both been impactful players. Mitchell will transfer to Missouri after two seasons at Duke while Rohde will be entering his junior season at Virginia after spending his freshman year at St. Thomas.

Four players qualified for the Efficient Tall Freshman query in 2024: Stephon Castle, Johnny Furphy, Kwame Evans Jr, and Milan Momcilovic. While Castle and Furphy were both 2024 NBA Draft picks, Evans Jr and Momcilovic both flashed NBA potential as well.

Evans Jr was a 6-foot-9 freshman for Oregon this past season that averaged 7.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and one block per game. He showed some versatility defensively this past season as well as potential as a long-term shooter, indicated by both his 79.5 FT% and unguarded catch-and-shoot numbers. Evans Jr was also the 15th-most productive freshmen this past season and is set to be drafted in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Lastly, Milan Momcilovic is a 6-foot-8 wing for Iowa State who averaged 10.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and almost one stock per game while shooting 36% from three on nine three-point attempts per 100 possessions and 45.6% on non-rim twos (149 attempts). He's a legitimate prospect that could see his name called in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Study on Undersized Guards

While this study didn't apply to any specific prospects, it can be used as another data point when evaluating undersized guards. The study had three main takeaways:

1. Overall Trend

The first and most significant conclusion is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to stick as an undersized guard (shorter than 6-foot-2), especially if you do not have a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of +3.0 or higher in college. As stated above, in the 2003-2012 NBA draft classes, 62.5% of drafted players listed under 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA. However, in the 2013-2022 draft classes, only 45.7% of drafted players listed under 6-foot-2 "stuck" in the NBA or are currently in the NBA and considered likely to stick. Something to keep in mind as this trend continues to grow in the NBA is the defensive impact of the undersized guard in college, with eight of the 13 (61.5%) undersized guards who had a DBPM of 3.0 or more in the year they declared stuck in the NBA or are on track to.

2. Is 6-foot-1 undersized?

Another takeaway to consider may be to not count out 6-foot-1 guards for the immediate future, as a number of them are finding a way to create successful careers for themselves. While 50% (7-of-14) stuck from the 2003-2012 draft classes, 76.4% (13-of-17) stuck or are on track to stick from the 2013-2022 draft classes. 

Furthermore, when you combine the above takeaway with the overall trend, it's evident there's a clear risk in drafting a player listed under 6-foot-1. Only three guards listed at 6-foot or shorter have stuck since 2013 and the overall stick rate for those drafted since then is 15.8% (3-of-19).

3. Sticking, but limited in the playoffs?

The ultimate goal for NBA teams is to win championships. While the probability of undersized guards sticking has decreased within the last 10 years, perhaps more important is their lack of playing time once the postseason begins and players' limitations are targeted. This is illustrated through a 21.7% decrease in the minutes per game of the fourteen undersized guards who have stuck since the 2013 draft class when comparing regular season MPG and playoff MPG.

Keep In Mind

While these studies are intriguing to look at, they should be used as a data point, alongside film, other analytical tools, medicals, intel, and many other factors. These studies are likely best used to help identify talent. If a player who you haven't watched is on pace to meet one of these queries, for example, then they may be worth looking into. Lastly, these studies can also be used when weighing the risks of drafting a player. It can add a level of comfort knowing that, in the case of the Productive Young Athlete Query, 78% of other players who met the same thresholds stick in the NBA.

Each study, including the details and thought process behind each one, is linked in the opening paragraph.

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