Rookie Fit Preview: Can Jaden Hardy Step Up for Mavericks?

The Mavericks swung big on Jaden Hardy in the 2022 NBA Draft, but they might have to arm themselves with patience.

The Dallas Mavericks have arguably the most impressive talent in the world these days, in form of Luka Dončić. The 23-year-old Slovenian is the heart of the team, and not a single transaction is made without consideration as to how a player will fit with the superstar.

In the draft, the Mavericks found themselves in an interesting position. They had a chance to truly swing for upside, even if that upside is a few years away. Considering the fact that the team just made the Western Conference Finals, surely no one would have complained if the Mavs had opted for an older rookie, who might have stood a chance to become an immediate contributor.

However, with Dončić being just the aforementioned 23 years of age, Dallas swung - and swung big. They took Jaden Hardy, a raw but talented scorer, who in a few years could improve to the point of becoming a potential starter for the Texas club.

The Rookie Class

Jaden Hardy (guard) | No. #37 overall

Huge upside scorer, who might be in for a rough time early in his NBA career.

Roles and Opportunities

Let's get right to the intrigue. Hardy, who stands 6-foot-4, is in possession of what is called a Tier 1 skill, which is flat-out the most important aspect of basketball: The ability to create shots off his own accord. Any player that can consistently demonstrate that he can create his own looks offensively, will get pushed ahead in the line.

However, Hardy isn't expected to be much of a contributor right off the bat, because he lacks the efficiency to go with his shot-creation ability. In 25 G-League Ignite assignments, Hardy hit just 37.6% from the floor, including 30.9% from downtown. This too was a concern during Summer League, where the explosive guard hit just 34.7% of his attempts over five games.

As such, it's fair to wonder if Jason Kidd can even trust the rookie at this point. He'll get burn here and there regardless, just to show what he's got, but unless Hardy begins to use his powers for good (taking shots of higher quality), odds are good he'll spend a lot of time on the bench or back in the G-League.

As previously stated, everything revolves around Dončić, and that means players need to be able to make shots while on the floor with him. Hardy has a tendency to make things overly complicated for his own good, for example by driving right into the teeth of the defense with no plan, instead of simply pulling up from three-point territory when open, or creating a high-percentage look from mid-range, which is a shot he can get anytime he wants.

Of course, the presence of Dončić could also help Hardy get more open looks, which would be no small thing. That's entirely theoretical at this point, however.

Projections

Hardy is likely to turn out as a good NBA player in a few years, assuming he takes notes, learns from his mistakes, and slows down offensively to gain a better feel for the game.

And honestly? Why not assume that? We've seen plenty of young gunners turn into productive and reliable players over the years, so we owe Hardy the benefit of the doubt based on the past of his peers.

Besides, Hardy's raw fluidity is going to take him places. There's too much raw talent there to not be optimistic about his future - even if he has to arm himself with some patience first. 

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