Skill Spotlights: Carlton Carrington's Shooting

Carlton Carrington has an interesting shooting profile, including a deadly midrange pull-up jumper.

Mar 15, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; Pittsburgh Panthers guard Carlton Carrington (7) shoots the ball as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Cormac Ryan (3) defends in the first half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Carlton Carrington, also known as Bub Carrington, saw his stock rise throughout the 2024 NBA draft cycle thanks to two parts of his game: his passing and his shooting. He's one of the better passers in the draft — he finished with a 24.0% assist percentage and a 2.1 assist-to-turnover rate, both indicative of a great decision-maker with the ball in his hands.

But Carrington's best skill is his shooting. Specifically, his pull-up shooting, which is one of the best microskills in this draft class. He shot 50.9% on 116 pull-up midrange jumpers, or 3.4 attempts per game. And although he shot just 32.2% from three in his freshman season at Pittsburgh, including 32.1% on pull-up threes, there's evidence to believe in those percentages improving.

The first piece of evidence is his combination of touch and volume at age. He has obvious elite touch with his midrange pull-up excellence and solid floater game (19-38 on floaters dating back to 2021 in Synergy Sports' database) and shot the ball at a high rate; 11.0 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. Touch and volume are both historically positive shooting indicators, and having the combination of both at 18 years old bodes well for his shooting projection.

The second piece of evidence is his catch-and-shoot numbers. The 6-foot-4 guard shot 32.0% on 75 catch-and-shoot threes, but the numbers start to get even trickier with a deeper look. According to Synergy, he shot 23.7% on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes and 40.5% on guarded threes, flipped from the traditional standards of unguarded looks being easier than guarded looks.

This could be a product of variance, which could go two ways. Carrington took only 75 catch-and-shoot threes overall, with 37 being guarded and 38 being unguarded. With a relatively small sample, he could be just as good shooting unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers as he is shooting guarded. Or, the guarded numbers were a fluke, and with a larger sample, the percentage goes down and is closer to the unguarded percentage.

The first is more likely. With his midrange excellence, overall touch, and confidence shooting, the unguarded numbers are more likely to jump and the guarded numbers may dip a bit and they may start to stabilize at a middle ground. Even if that isn't the case, with that aforementioned combination of touch and volume at age, unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers are low-hanging fruit for improvement. And an improvement there means a huge spike in his raw 3PT%.

Carrington shot 32.1% on 134 pull-up threes as well. But with his midrange and guarded threes shotmaking and volume pulling up from three (3.9 attempts per game), that number will more than likely not improve in the NBA.

Overall, with Carrington's strong midrange shotmaking, touch, and volume at a young age, his shooting has plenty of room for development in the NBA while already being a strength. Alongside his great passing, any NBA team that drafts him should be happy despite his rim-finishing and defensive concerns that hold him back from lottery status.

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