What Do We Want To See From Struggling NBL Next Stars To Close the Season?

The NBL has a reputation now for developing NBA players and while that’s a blessing for some young prospects, it can also be a curse. Failing to produce at a high level can come with consequences, especially for four players from this season.

Rocco Zikarsky / fiba.basketbal

When your team is struggling or floundering for most of the season, it makes the final stretch an audition for your future. It’s an opportunity to separate yourself from the frustrations that have plagued the season and prove that you are capable of more in a better environment, especially for NBA Draft prospects. Here’s what we want to see from NBL Next Stars and prospects who haven’t been at their best this season. 

Rocco Zikarsky came into the season as the most highly-rated Next Star and NBL prospect but struggled early on. The professional game appeared to be moving too quickly for him, and his dominance at youth tournaments was not transferring to the increased physicality against professionals. A solid two-game stretch against the Perth Wildcats a few weeks back opened a window of hope, but it’s slowly closing as Zikarsky’s numbers have fallen once more. 

The center is averaging 4.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 0.6 blocks per game in 12 minutes per game. Those numbers aren’t great, but those two games against Perth should be noted. Zikarsky is still very young, and those games likely gave us a glimpse into what his future could actually look like. Zikarsky may choose to reclassify for a future class, especially with his squad's struggles. The Brisbane Bullets are just barely on the outside looking in for the NBL post-season. If Zikarsky can dig deep and find some of what he showed against Perth -- more decisiveness, being one step ahead on the court, and punishing opponents with his size -- he can undo a lot of what has drawn ire this season. 

Karim Lopez was the huge coup for the NBL Next Stars program this past summer, bringing him over from the historically estimable Joventut Badalona youth program in Spain. The Mexican wing battled injuries early, and the New Zealand Breakers have struggled to find their identity themselves - sitting at 7-10 and second last in the standings - making it more of a challenge for Lopez to find a consistent role. 

Still, he’s averaging 8.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 1.2 assists in 22.3 minutes per game. His on-ball and off-ball defense has looked great for his age as well, but his current 17 percent from beyond the arc on 29 attempts is slightly concerning. The Mexican wing still isn’t draft-eligible though, and won’t be until 2026 at the earliest. He can ride out the rough shooting and hope for better setup play next season, or juice those numbers up and make himself a top name on 2026 NBA Draft boards. He’ll likely be there regardless, but a good shooting spurt to close the season will go a long way.  

Malique Lewis is yet to truly establish himself as a difference-maker for South East Melbourne Phoenix. In 24.6 minutes per game, he’s averaging 7.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 45/27/69 shooting splits. Lewis hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t been very good. The Phoenix absolutely expects more from him, which is nearly 25 minutes a night. That’s borderline top-30 for playing time in the NBL and the most minutes per game for any other Next Star or comparable prospect. 

The Phoenix currently occupy the final play-in spot in the standings with 10 games left to play. Their season has been up and down, but if they finish strong, and if Lewis contributes to that, it will work wonders for his draft prospects. So far this season, he’s been little more than a blip. That’s disappointing for a player who put up numbers and earned a rotation spot in Spain’s ACB as an 18-year-old, and his three-point shooting, in particular, has been a letdown after shooting 38 percent on 114 attempts last season with the Mexico City Capitanes. 

Those previous seasons for Lewis have made this season matter less for him compared to other Next Stars and surrounding company, but performing below expectations won’t escape all scrutiny and that’s why his name isn’t popping in current draft discussions. 

Lachlan Olbrich closes out this season’s class of NBL Next Stars and Prospects who have primarily existed instead of impressed. Olbrich opted not to enter the 2024 NBA Draft and rightfully so as he was coming off a weak NBL season. At 20 years old and 6-foot-10, the Aussie-born big has been better this season but still hasn’t done enough to truly force his name into draft conversations. 

In 16 games off the bench for the Illawarra Hawks, Olbrich is averaging 9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game on 63/14/54 shooting splits. He’s improved at putting the ball on the floor and shown more willingness to throw his body around and punish smaller defenders, but he’s still a bit of a tweener who doesn’t project to be strong enough to play center in the NBA or skilled enough to stretch the floor as a forward. He’s got time to change that, but the declining three-point shooting has hurt his case for the time being. Pumping up one or both of his rebounding and three-point shooting numbers could get him a Summer League deal and get his foot in the door for an NBA opportunity.

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