NBA Draft

The Fourteen Percent: Chasing Wembanyama

The best chance any team has at generational talent Victor Wembanyama is 14% on lottery night. The Draft Digest team has built this tracker to keep tabs on the future No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.

Draft Digest Staff

Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports
In this story:

Contents

  1. Notes
  2. Scouting Report
  3. Top Performances
  4. The Map of Victor Wembanyama
  5. Film Study
  6. Top Highlights

Victor Wembanyama

Center | France

Height: 7’3” | Weight: 230 lbs

2023 Draft Age: 19.46 

Draft Projection: No. 1 Overall

Victor Wembanyama, 2023 NBA Draft
Aitor Arrizabalaga/Euroleague Basketball/Getty Images

Notes

  • The San Antonio Spurs have officially landed the No. 1 overall pick, so that's presumably where Wembanyama will begin his NBA career.
  • Wembanyama has reportedly measured at 7-foot-4 barefoot with an 8-foot wingspan, although he says he is 7-foot-3.
  • The French big is evaluated by many scouts as the best prospect the NBA has seen in over a decade
  • As the season goes on, Wembanyama continues to showcase new moves, some of which we don't see in the NBA today.
  • Not only has the elite prospect put up absurd stats all season long, but his impact on winning is undeniable.
  • Wembanyama has led his team to one of the best records in LNB Pro A and is a top candidate to win league MVP at 19 years old. 

Scouting Report

Just looking at Wembanyama, it’s easy to see why he’s a generational prospect. He stands at 7-foot-4 with nearly an 8-foot wingspan. When you combine that elite size with the skill Wembanyama has, he has the upside to one day be the best player in the entire NBA.

The defensive upside for a guy of Wembanyama’s size is obvious. The impact he’s able to make on that end of the floor is tremendous. If he’s not able to block a shot, he’s at least impacting it and drastically reducing the chance of the shooter converting. During the FIBA U19 World Cup, he produced nearly six blocks per game against some of the best young players in the world.

Wembanyama moves well in the paint, which allows him to be effective as a help-side defender. He’s known for blocking the shot of players he’s not even defending. The 7-footer has elite lateral quickness and is able to move his feet very well. As such, Wembanyama is great on the perimeter and has even proven to be effective defending guards and wings. He’s especially impactful in drop coverage.

While the French center has struggled some in the past with stronger and more physical bigs, Wembanyama has found ways to overcome that disadvantage. Even when players try to bully him and put him under the rim, he’s learned how to block shots and time his jump perfectly. It may initially appear he’s been driven under the rim and unable to affect the shot, but then he still finds a way to get the block.

Unlike many guys of his size, Wembanyama doesn’t just sit back in the paint waiting for the ball to come into the him. He can defend at the point of attack all the way to the rim before blocking a shot.

Offensively, Wembanyama is also a unicorn. His 3-point shot still needs some work, but most scouts have no concern that he’ll improve on that front. Especially for a guy of his size the mechanics are fluid and smooth, he just need more time to become a consistent shooter. He also takes very advanced looks from the perimeter on the move which somewhat deflates his true 3-point shooting numbers. Whether it’s off the bounce, fading away or pulling up from multiple feet behind the line, the 7-footer has the ability to knock it down. He’s got a high release point that allows him to shoot over anyone without his shot being altered.

Again, there’s still improvements that need to be made with the perimeter shot. Over the past few years, Wembanyama has been very up-and-down on his 3-point shooting efficiency. Defenders have to play up on him because he does have the ability to knock it down, but he’s certainly not an ultra efficient shooter from deep yet.

Right now Wembanyama gets away with a lot, especially as it relates to shot selection. He often settles for questionable looks when he could get an easy bucket any time he wants it. When the level of competition increases for him at the NBA level, it will be interesting to see if he can make better decisions.

Furthermore, his free throw shooting is improved but still needs work.

Not only is Wembanyama a floor spacer at his size, but he can of course produce points in the paint. He has incredibly soft touch around the rim, but can also dunk on nearly anyone. The 7-footer has an advanced post package, boasting a plethora of moves to get a clean look at the rim. Not only is he bigger than everyone, but Wembanyama actually has quality post moves.

The 19-year-old phenom is deadly in the pick-and-roll. He spaces the floor vertically unlike any other prospect we’ve seen in recent years. He should be a nightmare for defenses as the roll man or even when popping at next level. Wembanyama’s lob radius is next level, generating quick points for the offense and making life easy for guards running the action.

Outside of the intangibles and skill, Wembanyama is also a very smart player that processes the game at a high level. While he’s not playing against the best competition at this point, the speed at which he’s able to make reads and decisions is impressive.

All things considered, there’s still things Wembanyama could improve on. For starters, he’s got a habit of getting in foul trouble. If he’s able to become more disciplined on defense, that will only ensure he’s able to play as many minutes as possible at the NBA level.

Additionally, he isn’t an elite rebounder for how big he is. Sure, he’s had several games in which he absolutely dominates the glass but doesn't do it consistently enough. There's really no reason he shouldn't have double-digit boards every single night.

The obvious concern is with his frame. He’s actually not as skinny as some of the other centers we’ve evaluated in recent years, but there are some questions around injuries. Dating back to 2020, there’s been at least five injuries he’s suffered that have kept Wembanyama out for an extended period. In fact, his season was cut short last year due to injuries. This season with Boulogne-LevalloisMetropolitans 92, he was able to stay mostly healthy which was promising.

Wembanyama is the best prospect in this class by a wide margin. Even if there is a risk with taking a guy of his size with the potential of injury longer term, it’s going to be impossible for any team to pass on him with the top pick. He brings so much to the table from a physical standpoint. Wembanyama could legitimately be the best player in the league in a few years.

After leaving ASVEL Villeurbanne to join Mets 92, Wembanyama's game continued to elevate. Some of the things he did this season were unlike anything we've ever seen from a guy his size or age.

It would take a major red flag emerging between now and the draft for Wembanyama not to go No. 1 overall. Even if others in this class have a historic season, the intangibles the 7-footer possesses cannot be passed on. As long as he stays healthy, he’s the clear top prospect in the world right now.

Top Performances

May 9: Nanterre

In an early May contest, Wembanyama per usual dominated the box score with 25 points and 17 boards. It wasn't his best game from the floor, converting on just five of his 12 shots. However, he was able to show that he can impact the game even on these types of nights. 

He got to the free throw line a ton, knocking down 12 of his 15 attempts. Being that efficient from the free throw line as a 7-footer is rare, which continues to speak to his unique game. 

April 8: SIG Strasbourg

Nearly producing a 30-point double-double, Wembanyama scored 29 points to go along with 16 boards in this one. This was a learning experience for the French phenom, who turned the ball over six times, which will need to be improved upon early in his NBA career.

With as much he has the ball in his hands, high turnover games may not be uncommon. However, it does go to show that there's still areas of improvement for the future top pick regardless of how good he already is. 

March 24: Le Portel

It had been a somewhat down period in LNB Pro A play for Wembanyama over the past month relative to his standards, but he put up a quality stat line with 19 points, 11 boards and four blocks against Le Portel. He played 36 minutes, which is promising as it relates to his durability at the next level. 

While he only finished with two assists in this game, Wembanyama continues to show his advanced passing ability, using both hands and even going behind the back. At this point, there's not much the generational prospect can't do. 

Feb. 23: Czech Republic (FIBA)

With Wembanyama suiting up again for France in World Cup Qualifiers for a pair of games, he put up a quality stat line against the Czech Republic. The 7-footer put up 22 points, 17 boards, six steals and four blocks.

This was one of his most impressive outings since the turn of the calendar year, as he dominated against a high level of competition. Not only did he dominate defensively, but Wembanyama also was effective offensively as he knocked down four of his seven triples. 

Feb. 10: JDA Dijon

Scoring shouldn't be a problem at the next level, which was proven in this contest as Wembanyama scored 29 points on just 14 shots. He also produced nine boards and four assists, as he showcased the positional passing upside. 

As a rim protector, it's clear that Wembanyma is going to be special. With his 7-foot-5 frame and long wingspan, he's disruptive even if he has a slender build. 

Feb. 4: ADA Blois

While he's a 7-foot-4 center, Wembanyama legitimately has guard skills. In this early February contest, he produced 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists. In the modern NBA, centers that can distribute the ball thrive on the offensive end.

It doesn't matter what it is on the floor, Wembanyama has proven he can do it. This was just another game that proved he's a generational prospect.

Jan. 27: Chorale Roanne Basket

After struggling to score relative to his ceiling, Wembanyama produced yet another 30 point game to cap off the month. He finished with 31 points and 14 boards in the double-double performance. 

This was a great glimpse at what Wembanyama could be as a volume shooter. He attempted 19 shots on this game, converting on nine of them.

Dec. 26: SIG Strasbourg

In one of his last contests of the calendar year, Wembanyama struggled from the floor. He went 6-of-18 from the field, which included missing seven of his nine attempts from deep. With that in mind, he was still able to produce 26 points, as he got to the line at a high rate and knocked down all 12 of his freebies. 

Outside of his scoring, Wembanyama's rebounding shined in this contest. He finished with 18 boards, absolutely cleaning the glass all night. 

Dec. 11: A.S. Monaco Basket

In a loss, Wembanyama dropped 27 points and 11 boards. While he was effective inside the arc, shooting 11-of-15 on twos, he struggled from deep. 

The future top overall pick went 0-of-5 from beyond the arc in this contest, but that shouldn't be reason for concern. Wembanyama has proven he's an effective perimeter shooter for quite some time. 

Dec. 2: FOS Provence Basketball

In what was an impressive victory, Webmanyama scored 32 points to go along with 10 rebounds. He missed just four shots from inside the arc, while also going 4-of-7 from deep. 

What's wildly impressive about Wembanyama is his ability to score efficiently. He doesn't need 20 shots to dominate the offensive end of the floor. 

Nov. 26: SLUC Nancy

Once again, Wembanyama led his team to a win today, notching an incredible double-double. It was yet another 30-point performance, but this time he also pulled down 15 boards. 

Overall, the French phenom can score from all over the court. 

While it's clear Wembanyama is a great shot blocker, he's also proven to be great in the passing lanes, notching two steals in this game. 

Nov. 20: Nanterre

In what was his seventh-straight win, Wembanyama produced yet another 30 point game. On the defensive end, he also blocked five shots against his childhood team.

What's become more clear is that not only does Wembanyama produce a ton of highlights and fill up the stat sheet, but he also impacts winning at an extremely high level. He's led the team to a first place standing to this point. 

Nov. 14: Bosnia and Herzegovina (FIBA)

In a FIBA World Cup qualifying game, Wembanyama absolutely showed out for France. He produced 19 points, four rebounds and two blocks in a game against Bosnia and Herzegovina while playing just 24 minutes.

The confidence of Wembanyama continues to rise, as the one-legged triples are still part of his game. 

He also is more comfortable making advanced passes and being a natural facilitator.

Regardless of the stage, the generational center is the best player on the floor wherever he goes.

Nov. 4: Limoges CSP

To kick off the month of November, Wembanyama had a great game against Limoges CSP, finishing with 33 points, 12 rebounds and four assists. He did struggle from deep, knocking down just three of his eight attempts, but overall he was spectacular. 

A career-high 33 points with a double-double just further increased his draft stock, if that was even possible. 

While we had seen it a few times before, this matchup is when Wembanyama's one-legged three began to make the rounds. All around draft circles, his circus shot make many wonder whether that would become a regular occurrence.

Oct. 21: ADA Blois

Every time Wembanyama takes the floor, he shows something new in his game. On Friday, he produced 17 points, five boards, five assists and five blocks against ADA Blois. This is a rare stat line, notching a 4x5 performance.

The shots Wembanyama blocked in this contest were absurd, protecting the rim in both the half-court and in transition.

The French center was extremely efficient, shooting just ten times to score his 17 points on 70% shooting from the floor.

While most 7-footers lack a perimeter game, Wembanyama knocked down his usual 3-pointers at a good rate but also flashed his guard skills. There was one isolation drive in particular that was unlike anything we've ever seen a player of his size do.

We're getting to the point where the weaknesses in Wembanyama's game are becoming minimal for a player of his age. Outside of gaining weight, getting stronger and staying healthy, he still looks every bit a No. 1 overall pick.

Oct. 15: Le Mans

One of the most highly touted NBA Draft prospects of all-time, Frenchman Victor Wembanyama continued his run of dominance on Saturday.

The 7-foot-4 Metropolitans 92 forward poured on 24 points, nine rebounds and three blocks in an overtime win versus an undefeated Le Mans team.

After a slower first half versus Le Mans on Saturday, Wembanyama exploded in the second half to finish with a +17 plus-minus.

Wembanyama yet again showcased his premier skill for his size: dunking the ball, spacing the floor and functioning as a stalwart on the defensive end. At 7-foot-4, Wembanyama is able to maneuver himself well nearly anywhere on the court, putting the ball on the floor and shooting anywhere.

While his agent said the 18-year-old won’t be shut down prior to the 2023 NBA Draft, it’s clear no one will be dethroning him.

Oct. 4 & Oct. 6: G League Ignite

With a likely generational-level talent in Victor Wembanyama headlining the 2023 NBA Draft class, we here at Draft Digest thought it best to start a running thread of the frenchman’s performances leading up until draft night.

The first entry to this post features the two most impressive prospect performances I (Derek Parker) have ever witnessed.

Two games featuring 73 points, 15 rebounds, nine blocks and nine three three-pointers made, most of which were masterfully curated by the 7-foot-5 phenom.

Turnaround jumpers, thirty-five foot threes and court-crossing blocks. All of which left basketball fans around the globe in awe.

The first was a fireworks show in every essence. Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson faced off in their first exhibition grudge match that could span multiple decades.

After a slower start, Wembanayama finished the game with a dazzling 37 points, nailing seven threes and tacking on five blocks.

But game two was potentially even more incredible.

Despite one less point, 36 in total, Wembanayama showcased his innate coordination and perimeter centric, face-up style of play even better in game two.

He shot from Trae Young-level range, hit Tracy McGrady’s signature move and powered down putback’s at Shaquille O’Neal level pace.

His two games were unparalleled in the world of basketball, with over 200 NBA scouts in attendance to witness his display.

Thought his agent said he won’t, Wembanyama could shut it down tomorrow and still hear his name first on draft night.

NBA teams will be fighting tooth and nail to position themselves for Wembanyama’s talents. Unfortunately for them, the best chance they’ll get is just fourteen percent.

The Map of Victor Wembanyama

Film Study

Top Highlights

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