2024 NBA Draft: The Productive Young Athlete Query

78% of college basketball players who meet four specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA. Which players qualified this past season?

Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

With the NBA Draft quickly approaching, everyone wants to discover a diamond in the rough.

To do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. That being said, it is of the utmost importance to consider the logic behind the factors included in these queries. While exploring different statistics, I came across a combination of criteria that is logical through the “eye” test and reliably predicts talent. Let’s call it the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query.

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Prospects in the 2019 NBA Draft met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.

The Main Study

Since 2008, 78% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40,BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 76 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2019 NBA Drafts, 59 of them went on to play five-plus seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league. Although it’s fun to toggle around with different queries and Barttorvik.com to discover what metrics are most indicative of future success for prospects, it’s important to ask “What do these four criteria really mean? What picture does it paint about prospects with these four criteria in common?”

Well, let’s define each. A freshman is the first-year of a player at a college or university, indicating a young age of around 18 years old. MIN% is the percentage of the team’s total minutes that a prospect plays in. These two criteria alone help narrow prospects down into college basketball players that are young, but are already trusted by their college coach and talented enough to play significant (defined here as ≥40% of the team’s total) minutes.

Next indicator, and this is the most important one, is a BPM greater than or equal to 7.5. Box Plus-Minus, or BPM, is a box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team. Widely considered as one of the most relevant publicly-available advanced statistics in the basketball world, BPM is applied to the NBA game as well. For example, to show its relevancy, the four NBA players with the highest BPMs this season are four of the favorites for MVP: Nikola Jokic (13.6), Luka Doncic (10.1), Giannis Antetokounmpo (9.1), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (9.1). Therefore, if a prospect is a freshman with a MIN%≥40 and a BPM≥7.5, this means they are likely to be young, playing almost a majority of their team’s minutes, and contributing to the game significantly over a replacement-level player when out on the floor.

The final layer to this statistical Productive Young Athlete query is the threshold of four total dunks throughout the season. Despite this not seeming like a lot, adding this criteria increases the hit-rate from 74% to 78% while only decreasing the sample size from 84 to 76 prospects since 2008. This dunk threshold helps to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric to exclude a few prospects who are productive in college but lack basic athleticism to be in the NBA.

Therefore, freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4 Total Dunks throughout the season (Productive Young Athlete query) have a 78% chance to “stick” in the NBA historically due to them being young players trusted and talented enough to play big minutes, significantly contributing positively to the game, and having a baseline level of athleticism.

Who Gets Left Out?

No analytical metric can be perfect, and it’s important to analyze why certain elite prospects might get left out of my four criteria – especially the threshold of 4 total dunks. Out of the nine players that the sample cuts from 85 to 76 players when instituting the 4-dunk threshold, four of them are 6’3” or taller. None of them “stuck” in the NBA. Out of the five freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, but less than four total dunks in their season who are shorter than 6’3”, two of them “stuck” in the NBA. These two players are Tyus Jones and Trae Young, both of whom are impactful both at the rim and as primary ball-handlers without needing to dunk.

Who Didn’t Stick?

You may be wondering: “If these four criteria combined are so indicative, who are the 18 prospects who didn’t stick who met all four since 2008?”

Let's walk through each year:

2008: In the 2008 criteria-meeting class, Robbie Hummel and LaceDarius Dunn both met all four criteria but neither played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Robbie Hummel dealt with nagging injuries in his first two years in the NBA, and continued to deal with them overseas professionally. He retired in 2017 to become one of the best TV analysts in college basketball. On the other hand, LaceDarius Dunn had significant off-the-court question-marks and was indefinitely suspended from the Baylor Bears men’s basketball team.

2009: All three of the players who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA, which included the likes of Gordon Hayward, Greg Monroe and Tyreke Evans.

2010: Xavier Henry was the only player not to “stick,” and he played in 185 NBA games over the course of five seasons and ruptured his left Achilles tendon nine games into his fifth season. Unfortunately, this ended his career and he was waived by the Lakers.

2011: Javon McCrea was the only player not to “stick,” and this was due to a clear lack of a perimeter game. He attempted only 4 threes his entire career at 6-foot-7 and shot only 66.7% from the free throw line. Lack of a perimeter game, in addition to unfortunate injuries, are the most common causes of why prospects didn’t “stick.”

2012: Three players didn’t “stick” out of the seven who qualified, and all three of whom struggled from the perimeter.

2013: Two players didn’t “stick” out of the six who qualified: Anthony Bennett and Sam Dekker. Regarding Bennett, nothing more really needs to be said as he is widely considered one of the bigger draft misses of all time. From an on-court standpoint, there’s not a ton of reasoning a college player like him wouldn’t “stick.” Dekker, meanwhile, appeared in 201 NBA games and fell just short of playing for five-plus NBA seasons (No, I’m not counting his one minute played in one game on the Raptors in the 2021-22 NBA season).

2014: The one player who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA (Joel Embiid).

2015: Eight out of nine players who met the criteria “stuck” in the NBA. The only player who didn't "stick" was Gary Clark out of Cincinnati, and he played 170 games over his four NBA seasons.

2016: The only player who qualified this season that didn’t “stick” was Mike Daum. The 6’9” South Dakota State phenom was a poor defender and didn’t provide much NBA-level athleticism.

2017: Two of the thirteen players who qualified this year didn’t “stick,” and they were Justin Patton and TJ Leaf. Patton needed two surgeries to repair a broken left foot that limited him in his first season, then suffered a broken right foot the season after. Patton is another unfortunate example of injuries cutting a career short. TJ Leaf played in 146 NBA games over his first four NBA seasons, but eventually fizzled out of the rotations for both the Pacers and Blazers and subsequently signed a deal in China.

2018: Two players didn't "stick" out of the nine who qualified: Zhaire Smith and Jarrett Culver. Smith unfortunately fractured his foot in camp prior to his rookie season beginning, then dealt with a lingering knee injury the rest of his two-year career on the Sixers. Culver suffered a right ankle injury in his second season that required surgery and played 144 games over his four-year career. Although ten of those games were played during the 2022-23 season, being cut in the middle of the season by his third team in four years forces me to label him as a player that didn't "stick."

2019: Two players who met the criteria didn’t “stick” in the NBA, and they were Nick Musynski and Ignas Brazdeikis. Musynski, like a couple of the other prospects who didn’t “stick” despite meeting the four criteria, struggled shooting on the perimeter. When he qualified as a freshman, he was shooting 19% from beyond the arc. Despite improving his 3-point percentage as his college career progressed, Musynski wasn't heavily considered as a draftable prospect.

Ignas Brazdeikis is a unique case. Despite being considered someone who didn't "stick," as he appeared in only 65 NBA games over his first three NBA seasons, he won a championship with Žalgiris Kaunas in his home country of Lithuania last June and was subsequently invited to the Toronto Raptors minicamp last offseason.

Therefore, out of the 17 players who qualified by meeting the four criteria of Freshman with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4 Total Dunks and didn't "stick":

• 6 of them struggled with significant or continuous injuries
• 5 of them lacked any sort of perimeter shooting
• 5 of them played in over 143 NBA Games over four-plus seasons
• 2 of them lacked significant degrees of NBA-level athleticism
• 1 of them had significant off-court issues
• 1 of them is widely considered one of the biggest draft misses of all time
• 1 of them won a championship overseas last season and was invited to the Raptors minicamp last offseason

*Some of the 17 prospects suffered from multiple of these commonalities

Note: Although a lack of a perimeter game appears to be a common occurrence about players that met the four criteria but didn’t “stick,” incorporating an additional threshold of 10 three-point attempts over the course of the season keeps the hit-rate at 78% but drastically decreases the sample size from 76 prospects to 60 since 2008.

Projecting Into The Future: What Players Qualified for the Productive Young Athlete query from 2020-23?

2020: There were four players in college basketball who met all four criteria of freshman with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and four Total Dunks in 2020, and they were Onyeka Okongwu, Vernon Carey Jr, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Oscar Tshiebwe. History suggests 78% of these four will “stick” in the NBA, meaning around three of them are likely to play in the NBA for five-plus seasons. Okongwu appeared in 55 games this season before suffering from a toe injury and participated in 80 games during the 2022-23 season for the Atlanta Hawks. In his games played this season, Okongwu averaged 25.5 minutes per game and just over 10 points per game. He also provides value as a roller and cutter, finishing this season in the 86th Points Per Possession percentile in Pick-and-Roll Roll Man Possessions and the 85th Points Per Possession percentile in Cuts possessions.

Next, Trayce Jackson-Davis is having an impactful rookie season, serving as a rotation big for the Warriors. He's appeared in 65 games this season (including starting 13 of them) while averaging 7.2 points, five rebounds, and recording a 6.3 block percentage.

Oscar Tshiebwe has only played 42 minutes for the Pacers so far this season, but has been dominant in the G League. He's averaged exactly 16.2 points and 16.2 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game this season for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants.

Lastly, Vernon Carey Jr is now playing for Pinar Karsiyaka in the Turkish Basketball League (Basketbol Süper Ligi) after appearing in 37 NBA games in three seasons for the Wizards and Hornets.

2021: Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs were the two players to meet the four criteria in 2021, and both ended up being top-five picks. Mobley finished third in voting for the Defensive Player of the Year and was named to the NBA All-Defensive First Team in only his second season in the NBA. This season, he's averaging 15.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 30.8 minutes per game.

Suggs has started 73 games for the Magic this season, averaging 12.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game. His efficiency has increased year over year, as his field goal percentage jumped from 36.1% his rookie season to 41.9% his second season. Now, his field goal percentage is up to 46.9% for this current season. His three point percentage has done the same, going from 21.4% from three his rookie season to 32.7% his second season and 39.8% this season.

2022: There were four freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and four total dunks in 2022. Two of the freshmen were Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr, both of whom were drafted in the top three of the 2022 NBA draft. While Holmgren suffered a season-ending foot injury before he could play his first NBA game in 2022, he's started all 80 of the Thunder's games so far this season and is projected to finish second in Rookie of the Year voting to Victor Wembanyama. Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game while converting 37.2% of his threes (344 attempts).

Jabari Smith Jr has played in and started 152 games over his first two seasons in the NBA, and is averaging 13.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 0.7 steals, 0.8 blocks in 32 minutes per game while shooting 37% from three this season (364 attempts).

The two other freshmen who qualified were Kennedy Chandler and DaRon Holmes II. Chandler was released with one game remaining in his rookie season, highlighting the difficulty for undersized guards to stick in the NBA. Based on a study I conducted on undersized guards, only three guards listed at 6-foot or shorter have stuck since 2013 and the overall stick rate for those drafted since then is 15.8% (3-of-19). Lastly, DaRon Holmes II is a projected first round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-10 big was a junior this past season for Dayton, where he shot 38.6% from three (83 attempts).

2023: There were four freshmen who met the criteria of the Productive Young Athlete query in the 2022-23 college basketball season: Brandon Miller, Dereck Lively II, Jarace Walker, and Brice Sensabaugh. All four were drafted in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft, with Miller, Lively and Walker all being drafted in the lottery.

Miller has been off to a tremendous start of his career, averaging 17.4 points 4.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.6 blocks in 32.5 minutes per game this season. Additionally, Lively has started 42 games this season for the Mavericks, averaging close to nine points, seven rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game.

Jarace Walker was drafted 8th overall in the 2023 NBA Draft and has appeared in 32 games for the Pacers this season. Walker, who doesn't turn 21 until September, has potential to provide value to both the Pacers offense and defense in the coming years.

After starting the season contributing in the G League, Sensabaugh has played 23 straight games for the Utah Jazz since late February -- averaging eight points per game while having two games with 20+ points in his last five contests.

2024: Who hit the Productive Young Athlete query this season?

There are three freshmen who met the criteria of the Productive Young Athlete query this season were Reed Sheppard, Collin Murray-Boyles, and JT Toppin.

Before we dive into statistical profiles on all three players, it's important to recognize that Jared McCain hit the Box Plus-Minus, MIN%, and freshman criteria, but was two dunks short from meeting the Productive Young Athlete query. This, however, still puts him in the same category as Trae Young and Tyus Jones. As mentioned above, 74% of freshmen with a MIN%>40 and a Box Plus-Minus of at least 7.5 play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA. Let's dive into the statistical profiles of three freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and four total dunks this season.

Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Perhaps one of the most impressive statistical profiles to date, Reed Sheppard finished with the 15th-highest Box Plus-Minus for a freshmen since it began being tracked on Barttorvik.com in 2008. Sheppard averaged 12.5 points, 4.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 2.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game in 28.9 minutes per game. The incredible part is his efficiency: 65% at the rim (60 attempts), 45.8% on non-rim twos (59 attempts), an astounding 52% from beyond the arc (144 attempts), and 83% from the free throw line (65 attempts). He's also been unassisted on 54.6% of his made field goals this season (90.9% of his made field goals inside the arc are unassisted) while recording a 24.1 assist percentage and making a significant defensive impact as an event creator with a 4.6 steal percentage and 2.5 block percentage. Reed Sheppard appears to be viewed as a potential top ten pick right now.

Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

The 6-foot-7, 230 pound freshman averaged 10.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, one steal, and one block per game while recording an offensive rebounding percentage of 12, an assist percentage of 17.2, a 2.8 steal percentage, and a 4.6 block percentage this past season at South Carolina. Additionally, Murray-Boyles finished 67.6% of his attempts at the rim (145 attempts) and 41.3% of his non-rim twos (46 attempts). His free throw percentage of 66.7% (87 attempts) is not the strongest number, but is an adequate start and indicates some potential. Murray-Boyles only attempted five threes this season in total. While Murray-Boyles would have likely been drafted in the first round if he declared for the NBA Draft, his decision to return to school may allow him to enter lottery territory next year.

JT Toppin, New Mexico

Toppin is a 6-foot-9, 210 pound freshman that averaged 12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game while recording a 14.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 22.1 defensive rebounding percentage, 2.2 steal percentage, and 7.6 block percentage. He finished 68.9% of his attempts at the rim (209 attempts) and 53.8% of his non-rim twos (65 attempts) this past season while also shooting 34.4% from three (only 32 attempts). While the attempts are low and the free throw percentage would need to improve to represent a positive shooting indicator (56.5%), Toppin's willingness to attempt them is notable. He has yet to make any public announcement regarding entering the transfer portal or declaring for the NBA Draft.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Productive Young Athlete query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player. 

For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second round pick who's met the Productive Young Athlete query, it may be a sense of comfort that 78% of players to hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account when you realize only 27% of second round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PYA query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

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