The Productive Young Athlete Query: A December Update for the 2025 NBA Draft

76% of freshmen who meet three specific criteria play five or more years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA. Which players are on track to qualify this season?

Dec 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) in action against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

As analytics continues to grow in popularity within the world of basketball, statistical queries have increased in prevalence to help scouts find the next diamond in the rough. While exploring different statistics, I came across a combination of criteria that is logical through the “eye” test and reliably predicts talent. Before continuing to read, feel free to check out a more in-depth article on the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query here.

Introduction

Since 2008, 76% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 84 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2022 NBA Drafts, 64 of them went on to play five or more seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league. *Two players excluded from the study are Oscar Tshiebwe and DaRon Holmes II, who qualified for the Productive Young Athlete query in 2020 and 2022, respectively. They are excluded due to their uncertainty regarding meeting the criteria of sticking in the NBA.

A freshman prospect with a MIN%≥40 and a BPM≥7.5 indicates that the player is likely to be young, playing almost a majority of their team’s minutes, and contributing to the game significantly over a replacement-level player when out on the floor. A dunk threshold of 4+ helps to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric to withdraw a few prospects who are productive in college but may lack the athleticism to stick in the NBA from our query. Adding the four-dunk threshold increases the hit rate from 72% to 76% while only decreasing the sample size from 92 to 84 prospects since 2008.

Which Players are on Track to Meet the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) Query?

As of December 26, 2024, there are thirteen players on track to meet my Productive Young Athlete Query for the 2024-2025 college basketball season. All five players have a Box Plus-Minus that's greater than or equal to 7.5, are playing 40% or more of their team's minutes, are all freshmen, and have recorded at least one dunk. The minimum threshold of four dunks was lowered to one due to there being a reasonable amount of time to make up the four dunk threshold.

List in order of highest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to lowest BPM

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Derik Queen, Maryland (11.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 17, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins center Derik Queen (25) drives to the basket against St. Francis (Pa) Red Flash forward Valentino Pinedo (31) during the second half at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images / Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-10 freshman big is averaging 16.8 points, 2.3 assists, 8.3 rebounds, and 2.4 stocks per game while converting 77.8% of his 81 attempts at the rim, 38.2% of his non-rim twos (34 attempts), and 78.2% of his free throw attempts (55 attempts). Queen is currently shooting two-for-16 from beyond the arc.

In terms of advanced stats, Queen has been unassisted on 56.4% of his made field goals while assisting an estimated 14.9% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor. He's also recording a 2.6 steal percentage and 4.6 block percentage.

Jase Richardson, Michigan State (10.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Michigan State's Jase Richardson moves the ball against Florida Atlantic during the first half on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Richardson is a 6-foot-3 guard for the Spartans who's averaging 9.9 points, two assists, 2.8 rebounds, and one stock in 21.2 minutes per game. He's converting 77.3% of his rim attempts (22 attempts), 50% of his non-rim twos (18 attempts), and 54.5% of his threes (22 attempts). He's also recording a 3.3 stock percentage, 17.3 assist percentage, and has made 84% of his 25 free throw attempts. Richardson's elite efficiency has been impressive. It should be noted that Richardson has only recorded one dunk so far this season, so he would need to have three more to be eligible for the Productive Young Athlete query.

Egor Demin, BYU (10.2 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 3, 2024; Providence, Rhode Island, USA; Brigham Young Cougars guard Egor Demin (3) dribbles against the Providence Friars during the second half at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-9 guard has been out since December 3rd with a knee injury, but was impressive in his first eight games. He was averaging 13.3 points, 5.8 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game while shooting 86.4% at the rim (22 attempts) and 38.5% from three (39 attempts/9.7 3PA/100 possessions).

Demin was unassisted on 54.1% of his made field goals while assisting an estimated 32.6% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor. The freshman was also recording a 3.2 stock percentage and 3.5 block percentage before his injury. It will be interesting to see how Demin performs against better competition when he returns.

Dylan Harper, Rutgers (10.1 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 21, 2024; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Princeton Tigers guard Dalen Davis (22) looks to pass while being defended by Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Dylan Harper (2) during the first half at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-Imagn Images / Tom Horak-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-6 freshman guard has had an impressive season, averaging 23.3 points, 4.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, one steal, and 0.5 blocks per game while converting 75.9% of his 87 rim attempts, 35% of his threes (60 attempts), and 75% of his free throws (84 attempts). Harper has been unassisted on 73.5% of his made field goals while also assisting an estimated 27.6% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor this season.

Overall, his playmaking ability, especially in the pick-and-roll, has been evident throughout this season as he uses power, footwork, and change-of-pace to create opportunities for both himself at the rim and others. Additionally, Harper's ability to finish at the rim and offer point-of-attack defense has also been impressive.

Khaman Malauach, Duke (10.1 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Khaman Maluach (9) on the court against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The 7-foot-2 center is averaging 8.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, and 1.2 stocks in 18.6 minutes per game while converting 83.8% of his rim attempts (37 attempts), 75% of his non-rim twos (eight attempts), and 80% of his free throws (30 attempts). He's recording an impressive 15.6 offensive rebound percentage as well.

Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt (10.0 Box Plus-Minus)

Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner (3) hangs on the rim after a dunk against California during an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn. Tanner was called for a technical foul for hanging on the rim after the dunk. / Mark Zaleski / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Likely the least known player on this list, Tanner is a 6-foot, 170 pound guard for Vanderbilt. He's averaging 7.1 points, 2.3 assists, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.4 steals in only 21.1 minutes per game. He also has hit the four-dunk threshold while converting an impressive 87.5% of his attempts at the rim (24 attempts). He's shooting 30% from three (30 attempts), which could slightly improve, but he has an impressive 6.5 steal percentage (and 0.4 block percentage).

Lastly, Tanner has been unassisted on 67% of his made field goals while assisting 17.7% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor. He's someone to watch as the season progresses and could be an under-the-radar prospect to monitor.

Read More: A Study on Undersized Guards in the NBA

Asa Newell, Georgia (9.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 19, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs forward Asa Newell (14) shown during the game against the Buffalo Bulls at Stegeman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Newell is a 6-foot-11 big man for the Bulldogs that's averaging 15.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game while converting 75.6% of his attempts at the rim (90 attempts). The rest of his shooting profile could improve, however, as he's shooting 22.7% on non-rim twos (22 attempts), 26.9% from three (26 attempts), and 65.7% from the free throw line (35 attempts). Lastly, Newell is recording an impressive 17.1 offensive rebounding percentage, 2.7 steal percentage, and five block percentage.

Cooper Flagg, Duke (9.4 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) dunks behind Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets forward Duncan Powell (31) during the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-9 wing has lived up to expectations so far, averaging 16.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game while converting 60% of his attempts at the rim (60 attempts), 36.7% of his non-rim twos (60 attempts), 25% of his threes (44 attempts), and 74.6% of his free throws (63 attempts).

Flagg is also recording a 7.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 22.5 defensive rebound percentage, 22.4 assist percentage, 2.9 block steal percentage, and 4.7 block percentage.

Flagg and Dylan Harper are projected to go in the top two picks of the 2025 NBA Draft in June.

Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (9.0 Box Plus-Minus)

Nov 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) looks to drive around Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland (2) during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

Jakucionis is a 6-foot-6 guard who's averaging 16.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.5 stocks per game while shooting 61.8% at the rim (34 attempts), 33.3% on non-rim twos (18 attempts), 42.1% from beyond the arc (57 attempts), and 86.2% from the free throw line (65 attempts).

He's been unassisted on 68.6% of his made field goals this season while assisting an estimated 31.4% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor this season. It should be noted that Jakucionis only has one dunk so far this season, so he would need three more to be eligible for the Productive Young Athlete Query by the end of the season.

Thomas Sorber, Georgetown (8.9 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 22, 2024; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Georgetown Hoyas forward Thomas Sorber (35) reacts to a call in the second half against the Seton Hall Pirates at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

One of the lesser-known prospects on this list, Sorber was still the No. 46 overall recruit in the 2024 high school class. The 6-foot-10 big man is averaging 15.2 points, eight rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and two blocks per game while shooting 74.6% at the rim (71 attempts), 33.3% on non-rim twos (33 attempts), and 73.7% of his free throws (57 attempts). While his three-point percentage is only 19%, it's still encouraging that he's attempted 21 threes and is shooting a solid 73.7% from the free throw line.

Sorber is recording an impressive 9.4 offensive rebounding percentage, 22.1 defensive rebounding percentage, 16.5 assist percentage, 2.7 steal percentage, and 7.9 block percentage as well.

While being projected at No. 18 on Jonathan Wasserman's (Bleacher Report) mock draft from earlier this month, Sorber may still be one of the more underrated prospects on this list.

V.J. Edgecombe, Baylor (8.9 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 11, 2024; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) dunks the ball against the Norfolk State Spartans during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The 6-foot-5 guard dealt with a hamstring injury, but returned against Baylor's game against Norfolk State on December 11th. He's averaging 11.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. While he's shooting 69.2% at the rim (39 attempts), Edgecombe is only shooting 15.8% on non-rim twos (19 attempts), 26.3% from beyond the arc (38 attempts), and 63% from the free throw line (27 attempts).

The Long Island Lutheran High School graduate is recording an 18 assist percentage, and an impressive 5.1 steal percentage and 6.2 block percentage.

Edgecombe is a projected top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Labaron Philon, Alabama (8.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Dec 14, 2024; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama guard Labaron Philon (0) celebrates in the closing moments of the game with Creighton at Coleman Coliseum. Alabama defeated Creighton 83-75. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / Gary Cosby Jr. / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Philon is a 6-foot-4 guard averaging 11.7 points, 3.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game while shooting 68.5% at the rim (54 attempts), 58.8% on non-rim twos (17 attempts), 26.5% from three (34 attempts), and 67.9% from the free throw line (28 attempts). While his shooting profile could improve, Philon has been unassisted on 67.9% of his made field goals this season while assisting an estimated 28.3% of his teammates' made field goals when on the floor. He is also recording an impressive 5.4 offensive rebounding percentage and 4.3 stock percentage. It should be noted that Philon has two dunks so far this season, so he'd need to record an additional two to be eligible for the PYA Query.

Jayden Quaintance, Arizona State (8.0 Box Plus-Minus)

The 6-foot-9 big is averaging 9.4 points, two assists, 8.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 3.5 blocks per game while converting 71.4% of his rim attempts (49 attempts), 22.7% of his non-rim twos (22 attempts), 18.2% of his threes (11 attempts), and 50% of his free throws (34 attempts).

Quaintance is recording an impressive 11.9 offensive rebounding percentage, 2.7 steal percentage, and 12.2 block percentage. It should be noted that Quaintance is not eligible for the 2025 NBA Draft because he doesn't turn 18 years old until July.

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Productive Young Athlete query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second-round pick who's met the Productive Young Athlete query, it may be a sense of comfort that they historically have a 76% chance to play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account when you realize only 29% of second-round picks from the 1990-20178 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10 to 24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PYA query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

All Box Plus-Minus data accurate on Barttorvik.com as of Friday, December 27th, 2024.

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