The Productive Young Athlete Query: A February Update for the 2024 NBA Draft
As analytics continues to grow in popularity within the world of basketball, statistical queries have increased in prevalence to help scouts find the next diamond in the rough. While exploring different statistics, I came across a combination of criteria that is logical through the “eye” test and reliably predicts talent. Before continuing to read, feel free to check out my original article on the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query here.
Introduction
Since 2008, 78% of Freshmen with a MIN%≥40, BPM≥7.5, and 4+ Total Dunks throughout the season “stick” in the NBA. Out of the 76 prospects who matched these four criteria from the 2008-2019 NBA Drafts, 59 of them went on to play five or more seasons in the NBA or are currently in the league.
A freshman prospect with a MIN%≥40 and a BPM≥7.5 indicates that the player is likely to be young, playing almost a majority of their team’s minutes, and contributing to the game significantly over a replacement-level player when out on the floor. A dunk threshold of 4+ helps to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric to withdraw a few prospects who are productive in college but may lack the athleticism to stick in the NBA from our query. Adding the four-dunk threshold increases the hit rate from 71% to 78% while only decreasing the sample size from 85 to 76 prospects since 2008.
Which Players are on Track to Meet the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) Query?
As of Feb. 6, 2024, there are three players on track to meet my Productive Young Athlete Query for the 2023-2024 college basketball season. In addition to four or more dunks, all five players have a BPM that's greater than or equal to 7.5, are playing 40% or more of their team's minutes, and are all freshmen.
List in order of highest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to lowest BPM
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky (11.6 Box Plus-Minus)
According to Barttorvik.com, if the season ended today, Reed Sheppard would have the sixth-highest Box Plus-Minus for a freshman since 2008. The 6-foot-3 freshman has an 11.6 BPM. The five players ahead of him since 2008 in Box Plus-Minus in their freshman seasons: Zion Williamson (18.7), Anthony Davis (16.7), Chet Holmgren (14.1), Karl-Anthony Towns (13.1), and Evan Mobley (12.6). To put it simply, Sheppard is in elite company.
So, what's his statistical profile look like? To start, Sheppard is averaging 12.3 points, 4.2 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game in 27.8 minutes per game. The incredible part is his efficiency: 65.7% at the rim (35 attempts), 39% on non-rim twos (36 attempts), an astounding 54% from beyond the arc (90 attempts), and 79% from the free throw line (47 attempts). He's also been unassisted on 48.9% of his made field goals this season (86.5% of his made field goals are unassisted inside the arc) while recording a 23.6 assist percentage and making a significant defensive impact as an event creator with a 4.5 steal percentage and 3.1 block percentage. Reed Sheppard appears to be viewed as a lottery pick right now, but whether or not that's in the early or late lottery appears to be a divisive topic amongst NBA evaluators.
JT Toppin, New Mexico State (8.9 Box Plus-Minus)
Toppin is a 6-foot-9 freshman for the Lobos averaging 12.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. On the offensive end, he's converting 68.8% of his attempts at the rim (125 attempts) and 71.4% of his non-rim two-point attempts (35 attempts), but he's neither an outside shooter (33.3% from three on only 21 attempts) nor an efficient free throw shooter (53.3% on 60 attempts). He's active on the glass on both ends of the floor (13.9 offensive rebounding percentage and 22.6 defensive rebounding percentage) and has shown some defensive playmaking potential as well (2.5 steal percentage and 8.2 block percentage). Toppin is someone to watch as a potential 2025 NBA Draft prospect candidate if he returns for his sophomore season.
KJ Lewis, Arizona (8.2 Box Plus-Minus)
Lewis is a 6-foot-4, 205-pound freshman who is currently playing more of a high-energy, hustle-based role for the Wildcats. He's averaging 6.7 points, 2.2 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game in 19.6 minutes per game. Offensively, he's shown potential as a quality passer and is explosive with the ball in his hands. Lewis is capable of attacking closeouts, is a crafty finisher, and also an active off-ball cutter. Defensively, he hounds ball-handlers at the point of attack, is laterally quick, has sound technique when navigating screens by tightening the gap between the screener and ball-handler, and has shown flashes of off-ball defensive event creation and effective stunts. It should be noted that he has a tendency to foul (4.8 fouls per 40 minutes), but he also has a knack for drawing fouls at the rim (.52 free throw rate).
Lewis' catch-and-shoot three is still developing (32.1% on 28 attempts), which is evident in his free throw percentage (77 FT% in 52 attempts). Additionally, he has a 5.6 offensive rebounding percentage, 3.5 steal percentage, and 2.3 block percentage. Lastly, in a small sample size of 37 possessions, Lewis is in the 88th percentile in Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler (Plus Passes) possessions. While a high-energy, hustle player who makes an impact doing the little things is unlikely to generate true NBA buzz, if he continues to develop as a pick-and-roll playmaker, a three-point shooter, or a guard who can create consistent rim pressure, then he could be a prospect to watch in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Conclusion: Why is this Useful?
The Productive Young Athlete query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.
For example, if a college basketball player meets the four criteria during the season, then the player may be worth looking into. Similarly, if you're considering a player with a second-round pick who's met the Productive Young Athlete query, it may be a sense of comfort that they historically have a 78% chance to play five-plus seasons in the NBA.
This is especially important to take into account when you realize only 27% of second-round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10 to 24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the PYA query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.
All BPM data accurate on Barttorvik.com as of Monday, February 6th, 2024. All play-by-play data is courtesy of Synergy Sports
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