The Suddenly Polarizing NBA Draft Stock of Scoot Henderson

Breaking down the play of what many believe to be the consensus No. 2 overall pick.

If you have spent any amount of time on NBA Draft social media over the past couple of weeks you will have seen takes on G-League Ignite guard, Scoot Henderson, from “generational” to the same tier as Amen Thompson or Brandon Miller to not even better than Saben Lee and everything in between.

Per usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in between but it did seem it was time to take to the film and see just how Henderson has been playing, what are his current strengths/weaknesses, and where he really fits in the 2023 NBA Draft class.

Statistical Overview

You may see very different stats when people are discussing Henderson depending on whether they are just using the G-League regular season numbers or the combination of the regular season and the Showcase Cup.

You may see very different stats when people are discussing Henderson depending on whether they are just using the G-League regular season numbers or the combination of the regular season and the Showcase Cup.

While there were only six games in that Showcase Cup, Henderson was very efficient in those games in terms of his shooting and taking care of the basketball.

So, when calculating ALL 16 games that he has played thus far with the Ignite he is averaging just under 20 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 3.4 turnovers per game. He is doing this on 47% from the field overall and a much improved 34% from behind the 3-point line, although on a still very low volume.

The Marietta, GA native is also getting to the free throw line just over three times per game (remember that the G-League shoots one attempt for two points which is lowering his overall attempt numbers) and shooting 74% from the charity stripe.

Offense

Conversation around Henderson always starts with his strength, athleticism and explosiveness but sometimes this seems to actually undervalue his skill level.

In a league that values ball screens as much as the NBA, the amount of ball screen usage the 18-year-old has already got in the G-League is tremendous. Not only is he getting this usage but he looks good in those possessions as he combines that explosiveness with an impressive change of pace, suddenness and creative handle.

He is able to not only use these ball screen reps to get to his favorite shot type, a mid range pull up jumper, but also all the way to the rim and create for teammates. It should also be noted that Henderson displays a nice, soft touch on his floaters when elevating off one or two feet.

Much like his overall skill is sometimes under-appreciated, Henderson’s passing also may not be talked about enough. Yes, there are some concerns with the turnovers, but he is showcasing an ability to throw any pass you would want from an NBA primary initiator.

We know Henderson can break down a defense and when he draws those extra defenders he is unselfish and able to pass with either hand to deliver passes where they need to be to get teammates open looks.

As you can imagine, the 6-foot-2 guard is also a nightmare to stop in transition when factoring in all of these skills.

There are of course areas for growth and improvement with his offensive game. First, the 3-point shooting has improved but most continue to do so for Henderson to reach his ultimate ceiling.

The 3-point shot looks much more smooth and confident when taking an attempt off the dribble and while Henderson is best suited on the ball, he will have to play off the ball at times and be a threat as a catch-and-shoot player.

It should be mentioned that Henderson is getting some of these off the ball reps throughout games with the Ignite. While they are few, and rightfully so, it was nice to see him being utilized in a role where he could conceivably play next to another on ball creator.

The final area to note with Henderson is actually his finishing around the rim. While he does great taking contact on his initial drive, there were more examples than expected of him struggling to finish through that contact at the rim. On multiple examples he was not able, or chose not, to display the explosion we have to come to know.

Defense

When watching Henderson on the defensive end of the court it is easy to see the potential for a good NBA perimeter defender but not without more consistency.

The youngster will flash an extremely impressive aware and multiple effort position and then follow it up with a possession that is almost inexcusable.

What you believe about Henderson’s defense probably comes down to whether you buy into those positive reps becoming more prevalent as he grows and matures or if the negative possessions are closer to who he truly is as a defender.

Assuming Henderson is able to become more consistent on, and off the ball, his ultimate defensive value will come down to his ability to be disruptive and versatile.

The first of those, disruption, is something you can see translating to the next level. Considering his length, reported 6-foot-9 wingspan, athleticism and aggressiveness (at times) there is real potential to rack up defelections, steals and even blocks on this end of the court.

Henderson’s defensive versatility is not quite so certain. Even with that reported wingspan and his strength, he still stands at just 6-foot-2 which may ultimately limit him to only defending guards and struggling in a heavy switch scheme.

Then again, if he learns to effectively use that length and strength there is a path to him holding up against more positions and bigger players that would increase that overall defensive value.

It is hard to make any sort of argument for Scoot Henderson as the No. 1 prospect in this class over the generational talent that Victor Wembanyama is and using that same term for Henderson would be a little rich.

With that said, there is no reason for him not to continue to be in the lead for the No. 2 prospect in this class and probably in his own tier. This means any team selecting second overall should be taking the not even 19-year-old (Feb. 3rd) guard in this summers NBA Draft.

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