Three Second Round Picks Who Can Break The Rotation This Season

Only around 27% of second round picks "stick" in the NBA, but who are a few second round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft that may break their team's rotations in their first season?

Mar 29, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; Marquette Golden Eagles guard Tyler Kolek (11) reacts during the second half in the semifinals of the South Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the 2024 NBA Draft class being widely considered one of the weakest in recent years, the depth of the class may be under-appreciated. For example, a multitude of talented players fell to the second round -- a handful of which could even impact their team's rotations within their first season.

While only around 27% of second round picks "stick" in the NBA, let's take a look at three second round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft that may break their team's rotations in their first season.

Tyler Kolek, New York Knicks (Pick No. 34)

The Knicks made an incredible run last season, losing in the Conference Semifinals to the Indiana Pacers in seven games. This team has clear direction and a deep, talented roster, including Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Donte DiVincenzo, and Josh Hart, to name a few.

The team focused mostly on a heliocentric offense that relied on Jalen Brunson's elite scoring ability, as he averaged 28.7 points per game on 21.4 field goal attempts per game and had a usage rate of 32.5% (fourth in the entire NBA). While that number may naturally return closer to the 28-30% ballpark (Brunson's usage rate was 27.2% in his first season with the Knicks) with Randle returning, Randle's absence wasn't the only factor that led to this increase in usage rate. Before Immanuel Quickley was traded, for example, Quickley's usage rate was at 24.4% during his 30 games for the Knicks last season -- shouldering the load off the bench. Miles McBride's usage rate also increased to 16.4% by the end of last season.

While McBride was an efficient ball-handler last season, the Knicks entered the draft needing more help initiating offense within their projected bench unit for next season. This is exactly where Tyler Kolek comes in. The former Marquette guard was one of the most skilled playmakers and passers in the class, and he operates well in the pick-and-roll. Additionally, Kolek has converted 39.3% of his 239 three point attempts over the past two seasons. Look for him to make an immediate impact on the Knicks' rotation this season.

Pelle Larsson, Miami Heat (Pick No. 44)

Seemingly year after year, the Heat manage to find value in both the second round and in undrafted free agency. Whether it's Haywood Highsmith, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, or Caleb Martin, the Heat have done an excellent job at developing previously undrafted talent. This year the Heat have likely done so again by selecting Larsson in the middle of the second round and signing Keshad Johnson in undrafted free agency, with Johnson being a player closer to an early-middle second round graded prospect.

Both Larsson and Johnson have realistic opportunities to break into the Heat's rotation. Larsson offers positional size at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan while he also weighed in at around 212 pounds at the NBA Draft combine. Additionally, the former Arizona guard has the potential develop into both a stationary shooter and secondary ball-handler at the next level. He's capable of getting downhill in the pick-and-roll while also offering sound decision-making with the ball in his hands. This potential to grow with the ball in hands, while also shooting 42.6% from three this past season (108 attempts) gives him a level of positional versatility that may lead to him seeing the floor consistently in his first season.

Johnson has the potential to fulfill the "Strength-4" archetype, an archetype that is seen on some of the most successful teams in recent years. The “Strength-4” archetype, popularized by Adam Spinella, consists of players like PJ Tucker, Robert Covington, Grant Williams, Jae Crowder and Dorian Finney-Smith. These five players are all strong on-ball defenders, capable of helping to contain some of the best wing scorers in the league, while also being active off-ball defenders. Additionally, the offensive value proposition of players within the Strength-4 archetype relies mostly on being able to hit a fair amount of catch-and-shoot threes, an area in which Johnson has improved vastly upon during this past season at Arizona. Lastly, players within this archetype tend to be between 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-8 and weigh at least 225 pounds. At the combine, Johnson was listed at 6-foot-7, 224 pounds, and had a 6-foot-10 wingspan. He is also one of the best on-ball defenders in the class, an active off-ball defender, and converted 38.7% of his threes this past season (93 attempts). It is possible that Keshad Johnson could fulfill the four spot the Heat are looking for alongside a Rozier-Herro-Butler-Adebayo lineup.

See More: Pelle Larsson Offensive Scouting Report

See More: Keshad Johnson Scouting Report

Antonio Reeves, New Orleans Pelicans (Pick No. 47)

Reeves was one of the most productive scorers in college basketball last season, averaging an efficient 20 points per game on a skilled Kentucky roster. Antonio Reeves has the potential to fulfill two major archetypes offensively in the NBA: the dribble-pass-shoot archetype and the off-screen shooter archetype. Reeves is an excellent catch-and-shoot player with the ability to attack closeouts, shoot off the dribble, make the right play for teammates, finish at the rim, or draw a foul on drives. Simultaneously, Reeves can also apply these same skills to being an off-screen shooter. This is an area in which his passing, shooting (both off the dribble and off the catch), floater, and overall finishing at the rim flourish.

Reeves can fulfill more of a dribble-pass-shoot archetype to play off of Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram if needed, as his shooting gravity allows him to fit into a multitude of Pelicans lineups. Additionally, if the Pelicans choose to run him off screens, Reeves is capable of doing so as well. The Pelicans drafted a movement shooter in Jordan Hawkins last season and, while Reeves projects as closer to an off screen shooter than a movement one, he can be used in similar sets offensively. Additionally, the Pelicans were eighth in the NBA in handoff possession frequency and 11th in Off Screen possession frequency last season, indicating further potential of an offensive fit.

See More: Antonio Reeves Scouting Report

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