Understanding the Increasing Value of NBA Draft Picks

With the new CBA restrictions, the value of draft picks is bound to increase.

Jun 26, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; The 2024 NBA draft class poses for photos before the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

With the implementation of the new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement), and thus stricter salary cap rules, NBA teams are increasingly more likely to build short-term competitive windows, as opposed to trying to build for 7-10 years.

The harsher penalties for having an expensive roster quite simply mandates it in practice. 

So, what is then likely to become more valuable? 

Draft picks.

Due to the existence of the rookie scale contract system, teams will have four years of cost-control on all first-round selections, making it easier to not just round out rosters, but also to get more bang for the buck. 

Take, for example, Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs. Wembanyama is already worthy of a max-level contract, and will unquestionably receive one, but he's three full seasons from it triggering.

As such, the Spurs will enjoy great contractual value on Wembanyama during that time, allowing them - in theory - to spend elsewhere, thus making their roster more competitive.

That's not a new development, obviously. What is new is how much contending teams benefit from drafting a player, who over the course of his rookie contract gets better, and better, finally reaching a point where established superstars ahead of him can trust him to help them compete. 

Keeping down costs, as to not get hit with multiple restrictions in terms of trade flexibility, means leaning in to the draft as a means of safeguarding your short-term future.

This is a model the Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to follow, given that they'll have to pay all of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. And that's before taking into account the rest of their rotation.

By being able to acquire draft picks, and re-shuffling the rotation every four years, with new and cheaper alternatives, the Thunder might even allow themselves to stay competitive for longer - exclusively because they have the luxury of continuous selections.

We're not likely to see the price of draft picks increase until the realities of the new CBA have firmly hit, and we've seen a few teams get completely handcuffed by it.

But rest assured, it will happen. Some team is going to be overzealous - such as the Suns, due to their own minimizing of the importance of cap flexibility - and they'll find themselves in a position they can't afford to stay in for long.

By then, teams will ask for the moon for draft choices, seeing as that is the best way to keep costs down. 

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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