Why Ben Saraf’s Shooting Struggles Are Concerning

Ratiopharm Ulm’s point guard and projected 2025 first-round pick Ben Saraf has taken on a massive playmaking role this season but his marksmanship from beyond the arc has left a lot to be desired. This is concerning for his overall future, and here’s why.

Ben Saraf / fiba.basketball

Ben Saraf brings a lot to the table as a prospect. At only 18 years old, he’s a 6-foot-5 point guard with an already impressive number of pick-and-roll repetitions at the professional level. He’s got impressive court vision and can often shoot over his defenders with relative ease. Ulm has surrounded him with perimeter shooting threats who gel with his skillset perfectly. 

Generally speaking, guards like Saraf are what NBA teams are looking for. He’s got great size, which improves passing angles, makes it easier to create for yourself, and also makes it much easier to hide on the defensive end of the floor. Saraf and fellow highly-rated international point guard prospect Nolan Traore have both shown flashes of quality defense for young guards this season. 

Saraf also performs well in the pick and roll. He’s in the top 20 for pick-and-roll ballhandler possessions in Germany’s basketball bundesliga and top 15 in terms of efficiency per Synergy Sports. Practically every player ahead of him is a seasoned veteran. Pick-and-roll proficiency can make or break a career for NBA point guards, and Saraf’s got that down. 

But, there is one notable red flag in Saraf’s current production: his three-point shooting. Saraf is currently shooting 26 percent from beyond the arc on 81 attempts across all competitions. He’s 4-of-16 from deep in Basket Bundesliga play since December, and that includes a recent 2-for-3 game in a 26-point win. This isn’t damning for Saraf, plenty of guard prospects struggle from beyond the arc. LaMelo Ball only shot 28 percent from deep in his pre-draft season in the NBL. Saraf is also shooting a competent 36 percent from deep on spot-up three-point attempts per Synergy Sports. His struggles come from threes taken in isolation or out of the pick-and-roll. Simply put, he struggles to create and convert for himself from the perimeter. 

For Saraf to become an NBA starter, this skill has to improve. His size will help him on the offensive end in the NBA, but its advantage diminishes as the number of high-usage small guards in the league seems to dwindle every season. His size will not make up for his lack of explosiveness and his struggles to create separation against quality defenders. Saraf is not exceptionally quick or fast, and his first step is average. The way he can overcome this in the NBA is by becoming a lethal three-point shot creator. If he can convert step-back and off-the-dribble threes at a rate that forces defenders to push up on him, go over screens, or even switch or blitz him - now the rest of his offensive game opens up. 

His size will help him counter two defender approaches, make it easy for him to keep trailing defenders on his hip, and blow by overly-eager defenders even with a mostly average first step. Saraf is a skilled player, but to optimize his skillset at the next level he needs to become an all-around three-point threat. It will draw the defensive attention he needs to lean into his ability as a playmaker. Saraf will only have just turned 19 on a draft day, meaning he still has plenty of time to develop as a shooter. If teams trust their player development, Saraf is a good swing to take even in a loaded draft like this one.

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