NBA Draft: Evaluating Kris Murray by the Numbers

A data-driven approach to evaluating the Iowa forward.

Derek Murray recently joined Draft Digest Pro as a Scouting Advisor. He assists with managing all day-to-day scouting operations and is also responsible for evaluating NBA prospects by cross-referencing data analysis with traditional eye test scouting.

In addition to his role with Draft Digest, Murray is Head of Basketball for Cerebro Sports, a Mark Cuban Company, and the basketball industry's newest and most comprehensive scouting platform.

So today, after doing extensive research, Derek shared his thoughts about projected first-round draft pick Kris Murray of the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Per Cerebro Sports, the world's largest basketball player database, Iowa's Kris Murray is in some rare company. Since 2010, only three Division I players posted similar analytical metrics to Murray: Robert Covington (Tennessee State, 2011-12), Mikal Bridges (Villanova, 2017-18), and Murray's twin brother Keegan (Iowa, 2021-22), which is a formidable group to use as a barometer regarding Murray's scoring efficiency, outside shooting, ability to defend, and subsequently his draft value.

Returning for a third season appears to have been an excellent decision for the 6-foot-8, 225-pound forward, as he is now firmly in the mix to become a first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. Murray was a First Team All-Big Ten selection and finished third in the conference in scoring, averaging 20.2 points per game while posting shooting splits of 48/33/73.

When projecting Murray's draft range, and NBA outcome, it's necessary to understand the value of perceived upside. For NBA front offices and decision makers, the lottery is where teams typically find players to build around and that are capable of being their first or second scoring options for multiple years while in their prime. However, for teams possessing depth who have garnered lottery picks via trades or swaps, those high picks are sometimes used to round out competitive rosters with role players with specific, translatable skills that impact winning right out of the gate.

Murray's ability to space the floor at 6-foot-8 and defensive event creation should translate quickly to the NBA level. In addition to his shooting ability, Murray is effective inside as he finishes nicely at the rim (82nd percentile) and understands how to be effective in the post (91st percentile). In addition, Murray has been effective as a pick-and-pop and roll man throughout his career and has shown the instincts and feel to be a reliable cutter.

Other improvement indicators are Murray's improved free throw percentage (64% to 73%) and turnover percentage (8.4 to 7.9). At the same time, his usage rate increased. So, all in all, this should provide additional enthusiasm for potential further growth. It's unlikely that Murray will ever shoulder a heavy offensive burden or become an engine, so it might be hard to project him as a lottery pick today. However, imagining a world where he falls out of the first round is difficult because Murray seemingly has a high floor.

A potentially concerning thing about Murray is that he will be 23 years old on draft night. He is also somewhat limited as a creator. This past season at Iowa, Murray served as a pick-and-roll ball handler only 13 times. In those attempts, he averaged 1.23 points per possession. So while Murray is generally categorized as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect, a rise in volume as a creator could take the top off his long-term projection as a player.

Kris Murray has an NBA frame and athleticism, can shoot at a respectable clip, and is a fast processor of the game. Prospects with clean, crisp decision-making come at a premium, so I believe he'll be selected somewhere in the middle of the first round.

In the first iteration of the Draft Digest Pro 2023 NBA Mock Draft, Sr. NBA Draft Analyst Matt Babcock slotted Murray as the No. 20 pick to the Golden State Warriors.