ESPN Analyst Estimates How Much Money Cooper Flagg Could Lose by Returning to Duke

ESPN's Bobby Marks estimates Flagg could lose as much as $125 million if he delays his NBA career.

Flagg is projected to be the No.1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Cooper Flagg is expected to suit up for Duke in NCAA tournament play on Friday, which should get the hype train back on track after it was derailed thanks to the ankle injury Flagg suffered in the ACC tournament. The 18-year-old forward has lived up to expectations as an amazing talent and will go first overall in June's NBA draft pretty much no matter what happens in March Madness.

Barring one outstanding circumstance—Flagg returning to Duke for another season.

It would be a truly shocking development. Players as good as Flagg just don't stick around in college for longer than they have to with how much money awaits at the next level, along with the other draws of the NBA. Times are changing slightly with NIL money, and Flagg fanned the flames surrounding a possible return by telling The Athletic in February he wants to come back for his sophomore season.

Discussing the possibility in an ESPN column on Friday, analyst Bobby Marks gave an estimation of how much money Flagg could cost himself by doing so—potentially over $100 million.

In an article written by Jeremy Woo and Jonathan Givony examining Flagg's draft prospects, Marks projects Flagg returning "could cost him, based on estimated cap numbers, $75 million to $125 million in potential salary on the backend of his NBA career since he would delay the start of his service clock for his second and third pro contracts."

These calculations are based on a few assumptions. First, that Flagg turns into the superstar he looks like and will without a doubt sign multiple max NBA contracts. And second, that Flagg spending one more year at Duke means he'll spend one less year as an NBA player.

Should both those factors prove true then Marks seems to be, well, on the mark. Max contracts are determined by a percentage of the NBA salary cap and the salary cap rises with each passing year, so a future where one season of a max contract is worth $75 million or more is not so distant. Marks's math is saying that if Flagg goes back to Duke, he misses out on a year of a max contract, which could be worth over $100 million.

An absurd number to consider, but not an impossible one. These are the calculations Flagg will have to do when the time comes to make a decision.

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