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3 Up, 3 Down: 2024 NBA Draft First Round De-Brief

I wanted to share my thoughts on three first-round picks I really liked and three first-round picks I'm not as confident in from the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft.

Rohan Raman

Jun 26, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Zaccharie Risacher poses for photos with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected first overall by the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 26, 2024; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Zaccharie Risacher poses for photos with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected first overall by the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The first round of the 2024 NBA Draft has come to a close - and Zaccharie Risacher is officially an Atlanta Hawk.

Both the reaction to the pick and my grade for the pick are already up, but I think it's worth taking a look at what other teams did with their first-round picks. While the development trajectories of these players still aren't known, these are just fits that I really liked - or did not understand - between player and team.

Zach Edey to the Memphis Grizzlies - Up

Memphis now has a frontcourt of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey. That's one of the most imposing frontcourts in basketball and frees Jackson up to thrive as a defensive roamer. Ja Morant will have tons of fun finding Edey for easy post-ups and interior buckets. I also think the comparisons to big men like Luka Garza, Oscar Tshiebwe or Jahlil Okafor are entirely dismissive of the interior dominance Edey brings. ESPN's Jonathan Wasserman had this to say about Edey's scoring abilities in the paint.

"He shot 82.2 percent on rolls to the basket, picked up 56 putbacks and converted an incredible 32-of-36 cuts, per Synergy Sports. Once Edey has position and the ball inside, he's almost automatic. Edey also scored 14.3 points per game in the post, the most in the country by 5.7 points. As advantageous as his strength is for gaining position, he didn't always need it, given where his release point is and how much touch he's added to his one-handers."

Pick-and-rolls with Ja Morant, pulling down offensive rebounds and scoring in the low post will all be big parts of Edey's offensive game as a rookie. I think the defensive concerns are legitimate, but he is often compared to Clippers center Ivica Zubac, who is a good defender in the regular season. Zubac is someone whose defense has struggled in the post-season, but he doesn't have Edey's measureables. Edey probably will struggle guarding players in space, but I'm intrigued to see if he can show growth in that area.

AJ Johnson to the Milwaukee Bucks - Down

The AJ Johnson pick to me is baffling on three fronts. First, the Bucks should be trying to push in every asset they can in order to extend the championship window they have with Giannis. Drafting an 19 year-old who played 8 minutes a game across 29 games for the Illawarra Hawks in the NBL is more of a long-term development play. Even though he's an explosive athlete, he needs to get stronger and reduce his proclivity for turnovers. He needs time to develop and the Bucks are not really in a situation to give it to him.

Secondly, his numbers are not great. The 6'5, 160 lb guard did not get a lot of playing time and his underlying percentages - shooting, FT%, 3-point % etc. - do not really stand out. He's an explosive compound guard who can make some eye-popping plays, but it just isn't consistent. Taking a gamble on him in the second round would be a great decision, but it is really early to take him in the first round.

Thirdly, I think there were better talents avaliable. Isaiah Collier, Ryan Dunn, Dillon Jones or Terrence Shannon Jr. all would have made more sense. He reportedly had a great combine workout, but I think the Bucks might have drafted more of an athlete rather than a basketball player. They need guaranteed role players at minimum and I think there's a good chance Johnson is not able to crack the rotation for Milwaukee

Isaiah Collier to the Utah Jazz - Up

The Utah Jazz saw encouraging things from their 2023 lottery pick, point guard Keyonte George, and decided to double down on their backcourt with this move. George shows real playmaking chops, but Collier profiles as more of a score-first shooting guard that has great athletic tools. He has a good 6'3 frame and easily gets to the rim through his advanced dribble package. He shows off good burst, which is extremely coveted at the next level.

That is not to say that he can't be a good playmaker. He shows good vision and drastically improved his assist percentage while cutting down on turnovers during his time at USC. He fell over concerns about his questionable on-court decision making, lack of a reliable three-pointer and defensive struggles. I think all three are fixable and well worth the gamble at the end of the first round.

Matas Buzelis to the Chicago Bulls - Down

Admittedly, I am intrigued by this pick even if I do not necessarily like the fit on the team. Buzelis has an impressive 6'10 frame and is a great athlete. He has legitimate scoring upside from inside the arc with his pull-up jumper. However, I'm most concerned with the three-point shot and the overlap of complementary skillsets on the roster. Unless they move off of DeMar DeRozan, he and Buzelis both operate primarily in the midrange and that feels like an awkward fit. That should not be a long-term concern, but it is something to consider.

His three-point shot is just such a work in progress that I'm concerned it never comes along. James Plowright of AllHornets made this chart of his three-point attempts and it does not exactly paint a pretty picture.

A three-pointer shooting breakdown from James Plowright on G League Ignite forward Matas Buzelis
Matas Buzelis three-point shooting breakdown / James Plowright

If the shot comes along, then I could see this working out for Chicago. However, their record on player development and the current roster context makes me think it's unlikely to happen.

Devin Carter to the Sacramento Kings - Up

I love Devin Carter's defensive tools on a team that could definitely use them. Sacramento's defense was one of the worst in the NBA after the All-Star Break. Right away, Carter's 6'9 wingspan makes him a special defender and shot blocker. His game against UConn was some of his best tape and illustrates what makes him such a problem for opposing offenses. He is athletic enough to hound guards on the perimeter.

He is also one of the best guard rebounders in the draft, collecting more boards per game than seven-footers like Donovan Clingan and Alex Sarr. His hustle is a perfect fit on a Kings team that wants to get back to the post-season. He, De'Aaron Fox and Keegan Murray could be a very scary trio that can space the floor, play good defense and produce winning basketball for Sacramento.

Carter also showed nice connective passing skills at Providence and did not turn the ball over much when he did serve as the lead playmaker. He can handle secondary playmaking duties behind Fox and a backcourt rotation of him, Fox and Malik Monk offers an array of exciting looks for the Kings.

Tidjane Salaun to the Charlotte Hornets - Down

Salaun's age and size are legitimately very impressive. The 6'10 forward/center has a 7'2 wingspan at only 18 years of old. He's a great cutter and will work well moving off-ball. LaMelo Ball's playmaking is something that the Hornets need to capitalize on and I see Salaun as someone capable of throwing LaMelo lobs down for big-time dunks. With someone of his height and wingspan, he needs to be a great offensive rebounder and fulfills that billing.

My concern primarily stems from how much of a projection he is. He shows flashes of being a floor spacer, but I'm unsure if defenses will ever need to respect his three-point shot since he mostly took advantage of being left completely wide open. For someone of his size and length, he still has major defensive flaws to clean up. He can get turned around really easily if he's isolated. He struggles to navigate screens, which he will need to adjust to quickly. His off-ball defense is prone to mistakes and mental lapses, which is worrying considering the lack of a defensive infrastructure in Charlotte already.

Taking someone with very little upside as an offensive self-creator when there isn't an elite skill in his arsenal just feels like a worrying gamble. I'm interested to see what he looks like alongside Mark Williams, but would have rather the Hornets gone with Cody Williams or Devin Carter.

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Rohan Raman

ROHAN RAMAN

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