Examining the Fit of of Potential No. 1 Pick Alex Sarr on The Atlanta Hawks

Jackson Caudell | May 14, 2024

In case you have not heard, the Atlanta Hawks won the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday, despite having just a 3% chance of winning the top pick. It was the first time in franchise history that Atlanta was able to win the lottery and frankly, it was the only time that Atlanta has had any luck in the lottery.

Immediately after they won the lottery, the speculation about what they would do with the pick began. Would the Hawks stay at No. 1 and take the best player on their board or would they trade the pick and try to get more veteran help to put around one of their guards? The No. 1 pick has not been traded often in the history of the NBA Draft, but in a draft that is perceived to be weak, it is not the craziest idea in the world.

If they stay at No. 1 however, there is a perceived favorite.

Alex Sarr has been mocked to the Hawks by several prominent outlets over the past 24 hours or so since the Draft Lottery and if Atlanta does take him, it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta has struggled on the defensive end of the floor for the past few seasons and lacks size, athleticism, and length, which Sarr brings in droves. He is 7'1, 220 LBS, and has a 7'4 wingspan. He uses his athleticism well and would be an impact guy on that end of the floor immediately. He is arguably the highest-ceiling prospect in the draft at a position of need for the Hawks. He is the presumed favorite to be selected No. 1 for a reason.

Alex Sarr defensive tape from his three game playoff run with the Perth Wildcats. Effects the game on that end in a multitude of ways:

- Intimidator that alters shots near the rim due to his physical attributes
- Strong weakside instincts using his 7’4” wingspan to swat shots
-… pic.twitter.com/AMQv0kohG8

— NBA Draft Dude 🤙 (@CoreyTulaba) May 13, 2024

How would he fit on the Hawks if they do decide to select him with the No. 1 pick?

If they do take Sarr, I do think that would expedite Clint Capela's exit from the Hawks, as I think Sarr is going to play center in the league (but he could play power forward). Atlanta would have a logjam at the position and if you take Sarr at No. 1, he needs to be playing plenty of minutes right away, not coming off of the bench. Capela was already a candidate to be traded due to him being on an expiring contract and his age. I think the biggest question would be if Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu could play together on the court. Okongwu has primarily been a center while with the Hawks and rarely shares the floor with another big man, though head coach Quin Snyder did try lineups with Capela and Okongwu on the floor together last year, though it was in limited amounts.

Per Cleaning the Glass, Okongwu and Capela played only 279 possessions this season and had a point differential of +2.1 when they shared the court. The problem is this sample size is far too low and there is not enough evidence to say that Okongwu could play the four well.

If Sarr and Okongwu were to play together, there would be a massive question about floor spacing. Okongwu did show a willingness to take more three-pointers last season, but only attempted 69 of them and made 23 of them (33%). You can say that he would have taken more threes if he did not get injured, but his three-point shooting is still a big question mark. Combine that with Sarr's questions on the offensive end and ability to space the floor, that could be a sticky situation for Atlanta.

It is not just the fit of Okongwu and Sarr that would be the question though. Jalen Johnson showed huge leaps on offense this past season, including improvement in shooting the three. Johnson shot 28.8% on three's in 2022-2023, but improved that to 35.5% this season, going 71-200. Could there be another leap in his future? It would help in the event that Atlanta decided that they wanted to take Sarr and not trade away Okongwu.

The defensive fit would be very intriguing though with those three guys on the floor. Some of Atlanta's best lineups included Johnson and Okongwu, though it was a small sample size, but you have to wonder if there could be something there. If Johnson and Okongwu both showed steps toward spacing the floor, this could be a dangerous lineup for the future. The ability of Johnson, Okongwu, and Sarr to switch and guard multiple positions would be something that Atlanta has never had with Trae Young and would help hide his shortcomings on the defensive end.

The aspect of this fit that I have not mentioned yet is Trae Young, who is one of the best offensive players and shot-creators in the NBA. Assuming that the Hawks choose to keep him, Young makes life easier for every player on the court and that would help ease Sarr's transition on offense. He has never gotten the luxury of playing with a point guard of that caliber and he would get a lot of great looks on the floor. It is almost impossible to have a bad offense on the floor as long as Young is leading the charge on that end, but the shooting and spacing would still be the biggest question mark.

The other question would be who starts at the other guard spot? Assuming Atlanta trades Murray, it would be a question that would loom large. Trading Murray is a hypothetical of course and without knowing what Atlanta got back in a deal from him, it is worth speculating about who else would be in the lineup. Would it be Bogdan Bogdanovic? That would help with offense and shooting. If Bogdanovic is not coming off the bench, then who is? There would be questions about the offensive capability of a bench that might include De'Andre Hunter, Kobe Bufkin, and Mo Gueye. These are all questions that Landry Fields and the other decision-makers in the Hawks front office would have to consider in the scenario that they take Sarr with the first pick and keep Okongwu. There is no telling when Saddiq Bey will be back from his injury (or if he will even be on the team next season) and the other bench options could include Vit Krejci and AJ Griffin. Again, if Atlanta trades Murray, they would get players back and they could fill these roles, but that is tough to project right now.

The trio of Young, Johnson, and Sarr possesses a ton of upside and if the Hawks front office decides that they don't think Okongwu would be a fit alongside them, they could try and move him for someone they think would be a better fit. Could Atlanta package Dejounte Murray and Okongwu for Brandon Ingram? It is a possibility to think about.

This draft might not have a superstar, franchise-altering player in it, but for a team like Atlanta, it has the perfect complementary piece in Sarr. He would fill a massive defensive need with his shot-blocking and rim-protecting ability, while also having the athleticism to guard on the perimeter. His three-point shooting and rebounding might be slight concerns, but playing with an elite playmaker like Trae Young would ease those concerns. A future lineup of Sarr, Young, Johnson, and Okongwu could be the cornerstone of the Hawks franchise if they can make it work.