Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Can the Hawks find a way to upset the Warriors tonight?

Mar 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) talks to Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) after a game at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks continue their four-game road trip tonight with a vist to Golden State to face Steph Curry and the Warriors, who find themselves in first place in the Western Conference. Atlanta is 7-8 coming into this game and has a chance to finally even their record up and it would be their fourth win in their last five games. Atlanta has played well at times against the NBA's best teams this year, beating the Celtics on the road and beating the Knicks at home, but the Warriors are going to present challenges. One big question for the Hawks tonight is if forward Jalen Johnson will play. Johnson was ruled out minutes before the Hawks win over the Kings and is questionable coming into this game.

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 9th in the NBA in PPG, 12th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 17th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 15th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 14th in points per 100 possessions, 14th in effective field goal percentage, 2oth in turnover percentage, 8th offensive rebounding percentage, and 4th in free throw rate.

The Hawks have improved in some ways defensively, but they allow the most threes per game in the NBA and allow the highest three-point percentage in the NBA as well. There has been no consistency from night to night from this team on that end and the Hawks are usually prone to have at least one awful quarter per game (see third quarter last night). Golden State takes a lot of threes and is one of the best in the NBA in making them so that is going to be a huge key tonight in this game.

Atlanta currently ranks 28th in PPG allowed, 14th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point attempts allowed, and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions and 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Again, this defense is going to be challenged in a big way tonight vs Curry, Buddy Hield (who is having a phenomenal season), and the rest of the Warriors.

Golden State has a very good profile coming into tonight's game. The Warriors are 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 4th in three attempts, 2nd in three point percentage, 10th in free throw attempts, 2nd in rebounding, and 17th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, Golden State is 9th in points per 100 possessions, 9th in effective field goal percentage, 15th in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 26th in free throw rate.

Defensively, Golden State is 7th in PPG allowed, 3rd in field goal percentage allowed, 18th in three point attempts allowed, and 1st in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Golden State is 4th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 3rd in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Trae Young's scoring has been down compared to years, but he is second in the NBA in assists per game and is coming off of a game in which he had 19 assists and only seven shot attempts. Young is defferring more to his teammates and facilitating the offense more than ever and it has paid off.

Dyson Daniels has been a phenomenal story so far this season and he is going to face perhaps his toughest test of the season tonight. Daniels is going to be tasked with guarding Curry and trying to limit his impact in tonight's game. Offensively, Daniels had 14 points against the Kings on Monday.

One thing to keep watching as the year goes on is to see whether De'Andre Hunter is put back in the starting lineup or if Hawks head coach Quin Snyder opts to keep rolling with Zaccharie Risacher to open games. The two players played identical minutes on Monday, but Hunter has been phenomenal for the Hawks this season. Atlanta is 4-0 in games that Hunter plays in and he has scored at least 22 points in three of the four games. He scored 24 points in a win over Charlotte in the second game of the season, he scored 22 points on 7-13 shooting (3-5 from three) in a win over the Wizards, and just last night in a win over the Sacramento Kings, Hunter scored 24 points on 9-15 shooting and 4-8 from three. Risacher has been the starter in most games for the Hawks this year with Hunter out, but Hunter has been a better player. He is shooting 48% from three on six attempts per game (both career highs). He is also setting career highs in PPG (20.5) and field goal percentage (50.0%).

Risacher did not play poorly on Monday though. He scored 18 points on 6-11 shooting and 3-5 from three. He continues to play solid defense for a rookie, but the shooting has been inconsistent.

One of the things to watch every night for the Hawks is how Snyder handles the center rotation. Sometimes Clint Capela plays more minutes than Onyeka Okongwu (like Monday night) and sometimes Okongwu plays more minutes. Larry Nance has played alongside them both this year, but not a lot. Will the Hawks try to match minutes with the Warriors pair of centers Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis? Keep an eye on this.

It was the first time that Kobe Bufkin had played all season and the first game for Bogdan Bogdanovic since the opening game vs the Nets and it was shaky tonight for both. Bogdanovic had six points on 2-6 from three and Bufkin was 1-7 from the field. There is no need to panic, but it was a struggle for both players in their return.

If Johnson is back, I imagine the bench rotation will be Bufkin, Bogdanovic, Hunter/Risacher, Okongwu, and Krejci. Nance or Garrison Matthews could get minutes if Snyder needs offense, but I don't think the Hawks will use them unless necessary.

Golden State is a deep team and does not play their players a lot of minutes. No player on the team averaged more than 29 minutes a game (Curry) and their depth allows them to do that. Golden State played 11 guys on Monday vs the Clippers, but they will be without De'Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson is questionable.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Golden State is an eight-point favorite over the Hawks tonight and the total is set at 238.5.

Prediction

If Johnson is back, it would be the only time that Atlanta has had its full rotation of players in a game this season. I think they are going to have to be fully healthy to have a chance against Golden State. The Warriors ability to shoot well from three and the volume of attempts they take poses a huge threat to the Hawks. Whether it is Curry, Hield, or Brandin Podziemski, they have a deep pool of guys that can get hot against a team that is dead last in three point attempts allowed and three point percentage allowed. For that reason, I think the Warriors win and cover.

Final Score: Warriors 119, Hawks 110

Additional Links:

Hawks vs Warriors: Game Preview, Injury Report, Betting Odds, Projected Starting Lineups For Tonight's Game

NBA Last Two Minute Report Gives Clarification to Controversial Hawks vs Kings Endin

2025 NBA Mock Draft: Latest Mock Has Hawks Taking Pair of Talented Big Men To Help Bolster Depth