Atlanta Hawks vs Memphis Grizzlies: Spread and Final Score Predictions

Will the Hawks bounce back and beat the Grizzlies tonight?

Dec 19, 2024; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) drives in between San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson (0) and guard Devin Vassell (24) in overtime at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Hawks are back at home tonight for the first time since losing to the Denver Nuggets nearly two weeks ago and they will be hoping to snap this two-game losing streak they are on. After losing in the NBA Cup Semifinals, the Hawks dropped their game on Thursday in San Antonio and now sit at 14-14 with one of the best teams in the NBA coming to town. The Grizzlies are coming off of a blowout win vs the Warriors on Thursday and they have looked the part of a legit NBA title contender so far this season. The Hawks have been good against the leagues best teams this season, getting two wins vs the Cavs, a road win vs Boston, a win vs the Lakers, and two wins vs the Knicks.

The big piece for tonight's game is Trae Young and Ja Morant's health. Young has been playing phenomenal basketball in the past two games and is questionable coming into tonight's game. Morant was listed as doubtful on the injury report last night due to low back soreness. Both teams could be missing their top players tonight.

Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 8th in the NBA in PPG, 16th in FG%, 22nd in 3PA, 23rd in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 24th in turnovers, and 4th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 17th in points per 100 possessions, 21st in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 7th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 13th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 20th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point attempts allowed, and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 15th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Over the past few seasons, Memphis has been known as one of the elite teams on the defensive end of the court, but their offense is among the best in the NBA this season. Memphis currently ranks 1st in PPG, 4th in FG%, 13th in three point attempts, 14th in 3P%, 3rd in free throw attempts, 2nd in rebounding, and 29th in turnovers. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Grizzlies are 5th in points per 100 possessions, 9th in effective field goal percentage, 25th in turnover percentage, 4th in offensive rebounding rate, and 14th in free throw rate.

The defense is still among the leagues elite though. Memphis ranks 14th in PPG allowed, 3rd in FG% allowed, 28th in 3PA allowed, and 2nd in 3P% allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Grizzlies rank 4th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 3rd in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Hawks offense has been struggling with shooting and turnovers this season. The shooting and scoring concerns are going to be amplified without Young though if he is unable to go. Coming off of a 35 point performance vs Milwaukee and then a 23 point and 16 assist game vs San Antonio, Young is playing really well right now. If he can't go, I would expect either Bogdan Bogdanovic or Vit Krejci to get the start.

The player who might need to step up the most is Dyson Daniels. Daniels played arguably his worst game of the season on Thursday, finishing the game with four points and he was overall a -34 in the minutes he played. When Young missed a game vs Boston earlier in the year, Daniels stepped up in a huge way and the Hawks might need that version of him tonight. With Morant likely out, he will likely be tasked with guarding Desmond Bane.

Another player who will need to step up his game is Zaccharie Risacher. He is having a rough stretch on offense right now and not making up for it on defense.

If Young is out, the bulk of the playmaking duties will be on the shoulders of Jalen Johnson. Johnson has had a great season, but leading the offense for an entire game is a big task. He finished with 22 points, nine rebounds, and three assists on Thursday vs the Spurs.

The center duo tonight will be Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr. If Young is out, you might see the Hawks lean on Nance more so they can stretch the floor and have more offense out there. Nance was fantastic vs the Spurs on Thursday, shooting 5-6 from three and scoring 21 points. He played 31 minutes in that game, while Capela played 21. Memphis is an elite rebounding team with Jaren Jackson Jr and Zach Edey so both players will be tested on the glass.

De'Andre Hunter continues to play at a high level and nearly won the game for the Hawks on Thursday night. Hunter scored 27 points on 9-15 shooting and is playing tremendous basketball. His scoring, combined with Bogdan Bogdanovic's ability to space the floor will be crucial vs the Memphis defense tonight.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Memphis is a two-point favorite tonight vs Atlanta and the total is set at 241.5.

Prediction

It looks like Young might be out, but Atlanta can still win this game. They are at home and Memphis is going to be worse on offense without Morant. Still, the Grizzlies defense is going to be very good and without Young, the Hawks offense has a lot of questions marks. I think the Grizzlies win in Atlanta and give the Hawks a third straight loss.

Final Score: Grizzlies 118, Hawks 114

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