Atlanta is Hoping For Better NBA Draft Lottery Luck On Sunday Than They Have Historically Gotten

Jackson Caudell | May 7, 2024

Mar 30, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks head coach Quin Snyder on the sideline against / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

For the first time since 2020, the Atlanta Hawks find themselves in the NBA Draft Lottery. Their season started with high hopes, but it was a frustrating and disappointing season for Atlanta and ened with them losing in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Going into this offseason, a lot of the talk surrounding the Hawks is centered on them possibly trading either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray, sending the franchise in a different direction. The trade for Murray has not worked out by any real measure and it is probably best for Atlanta to make a decision there.

Before that though is the NBA Draft and the Hawks are going to find out where they are picking this Sunday in the NBA Draft Lottery. Atlanta's pre-draft position is 10th and they could pick as low as 12th. The Hawks have a 13.9% chance to leap into the top four and a 3% chance to get the No. 1 overall pick. If you don't hear Atlanta's name called by the No. 10 pick, that means they have moved up and will be picking somewhere in the top four.

History suggests that will not be happening.

The Hawks are a franchise that has spent a fair amount in the NBA Draft Lottery since its inception, with this year being the 15th time that Atlanta will be in the lottery since 1985. Of the 14 times that Atlanta has been in the NBA Draft Lottery, they have only moved up four times and they have never improved their pre-draft position by more than two spots. They have moved down from their predraft position five times and have stayed the same five times.

The last two times the Hawks were in the lottery were in 2020 and 2019 and in 2020, they came in with the 4th best odds in the lottery and it was a draft that would include Timberwolves superstar Anthony Edwards. Instead of staying in the top four or moving up to the No. 1 pick to get Edwards, Atlanta dropped two spots to No. 6 and selected Onyeka Okongwu, who has turned into a good player for them. Still, with a little bit of lottery luck, the future of the Hawks franchise is much different than it is today if they could have gotten Edwards.

In 2019, Atlanta came in with the 5th best odds to win the lottery and in this draft was Duke superstar Zion Williamson, who would have paired wonderfully with Young for the future. Instead, the Hawks dropped three spots to No. 8, where they would later trade up for the No. 4 pick and select De'Andre Hunter, who has had bright spots for the Hawks, but has had trouble with injuries and consistency during his time in Atlanta.

While this is not regarded as a strong draft at the top compared to previous years, it would be an asset to the Hawks if they could find a way to move into the top four of the draft or even get the No. 1 pick. They could use the pick as a trade chip to put talent around one of the guards they decide to build around or they could take a player that could help them. Having a top-four pick is better than having a No. 10 pick and would make an interesting offseason even more interesting in Atlanta.

History suggests though to not get your hopes up when it comes to how the Atlanta Hawks will fare in this year's NBA Draft Lottery.