Atlanta Gets Shocking Win Total Projection From NBA Expert

How many games will the Hawks win this season?

Jan 13, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) drives on Washington Wizards forward Deni Avdija (8) in the second quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The 2024-2025 NBA Season is right around the corner and that means that projections are going to be rolling in for the upcoming season. One of the most interesting teams to try and project this season is the Atlanta Hawks. Most will assume that the Hawks will get worse just because they traded away Dejounte Murray, but if you take a closer look at things, there is a real chance that the Hawks are going to be a much improved team. They have some questions to be sure, but there are ways that the Hawks overachieve and challenge for a playoff spot and a top six seed in the East.

The latest projections from ESPN's Kevin Pelton do not shar that same optimism about the Hawks and in fact, they see the Hawks as one of the worst teams in the NBA. Pelton has the Hawks projected for 31.9 wins, which is the 6th worst record in the NBA by his projections. Here is how Pelton came up with his projections, along with what he had to say about the Hawks.

"My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

One key change is the wins projections are no longer so compressed toward .500. As we are looking at mean wins, they still tend toward average because of the possibility that teams could dramatically under or over perform based on injuries and breakout seasons, but four teams are projected to win at least 50 games on average after only the eventual champion Boston Celtics were last season."

"No East team outside of the top eight will have more motivation to reach the play-in than the Hawks, who owe the Spurs their unprotected 2025 first-round pick. That desire will have to be balanced against Atlanta's hope of developing young talent, most notably first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, who projects to struggle as a 19-year-old rookie."

The teams ahead of Atlanta were Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Indiana, New York, Miami, Orlando, Brooklyn, and Toronto.

Yes you read that right. The Brooklyn Nets, whose win total right now is at 18.5, is projected to have a better record than the Atlanta Hawks.

While it is not a guarantee that Atlanta makes the playoffs, I just don't think they are going to have the 6th worst record in the league.

Trae Young alone is enough to put Atlanta in play-in territory, but the Hawks have other talent.

Jalen Johnson took a huge leap last year and a bigger one could be in store this year. They drafted Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 pick, Onyeka Okongwu could be the starter this year, and Dyson Daniels has two-way potential if he can improve his shooting. I have said that the Hawks ceiling this year might come down to the leap those guys make and it could have a big impact on their future outlook.